After a gut-punch loss to rival Miami, the No. 25 Florida State Seminoles (3-2) are back in Tallahassee this Saturday, and they’re out for blood. A noon kickoff against Pittsburgh (3-2) sets the stage for a statement game — one where the ‘Noles can prove they’re still one of the ACC’s most dangerous teams.
Florida State enters as a 10.5-point favorite, and for good reason. Mike Norvell’s offense is still one of the most explosive in the nation, averaging 560.8 yards per game, which ranks third in the FBS. They’ve been punishing defenses on the ground, racking up a ridiculous 295.4 rushing yards per game — good for second nationally. When this backfield starts rolling, there are few teams capable of stopping it.
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Quarterback Thomas Castellanos remains the key. Despite a rough outing against Miami (272 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), Castellanos has the dual-threat talent to shred defenses. His chemistry with freshman phenom Duce Robinson (433 yards, 3 TDs) gives FSU one of the most dynamic passing options in the conference. Add in Gavin Sawchuk, who’s already found the end zone six times, and the Seminoles’ offense looks ready to drop points in bunches.
Defensively, Florida State has quietly been elite. They rank 27th nationally in total defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game. This unit matches up perfectly against a Pitt offense that’s dangerously one-dimensional — great through the air but completely flat on the ground. The Panthers are averaging 307 passing yards per game but a paltry 116 rushing yards, ranking 111th in the FBS.
And that’s bad news against a Seminole front that’s allowing just 108.6 yards rushing per game. Pitt’s offensive line will have its hands full all day with FSU’s speed and depth in the trenches.
Sure, Pitt can score — they’re putting up 41 points per game — but most of that has come against softer defenses. Florida State’s secondary has tightened up in key moments, and when they force teams into the red zone, Norvell’s crew makes them pay. Pitt’s defense, meanwhile, is 115th in red-zone stops, which could spell disaster once FSU’s run game gets moving downhill.
Expect Norvell to lean hard on his ground game early, then let Castellanos open things up through the air once the Panthers start loading the box. If the ‘Noles clean up their penalties and finish drives, this one could be over by halftime.
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