No. 13 Texas Tech (7-1) rolls into Manhattan on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT on FOX as a 7-point favorite, and the numbers say the Red Raiders have the horsepower to make it ugly.

Joey McGuire’s offense is a top-five machine, stacking 499.4 yards per game (4th FBS) with balance – 300.1 through the air (12th) and 199.3 on the ground (27th) – and detonating scoreboards at 43.6 points (4th).

The scarier part is the defense: Texas Tech is allowing just 264.8 yards (10th), a nation-best 68.1 rushing yards, and 12.4 points (4th). If Kansas State (4–4) can’t move the chains early, this could snowball fast.

The down-to-down matchup favors Tech.

K-State ranks 91st nationally on third down (37.5 percent), while Tech’s defense is 13th at choking those chances (30.2 percent). The Wildcats’ best counterpunch is mistake-free football and cashing in close – K-State is 20th in red-zone offense (92.0 percent) and sits plus-9 in turnover margin (6th FBS).

Tech isn’t careless either at plus-5 (22nd), but penalties are a crack in the armor. The Red Raiders are 103rd with 63.4 penalty yards per game, while K-State is the nation’s No. 7 least-penalized team (33.0). If the Wildcats turn flags into free first downs, they can drag this into the fourth.

Personnel leans Red Raiders.

QB Behren Morton, who returns from injury this week, is operating with ruthless efficiency (1,501 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT, 68.4 percent), RB Cameron Dickey has 9 rushing scores, and Caleb Douglas is the chain-mover out wide (511 yards).

For K-State, Avery Johnson has been sharp (1,787 yards, 15 TD, 2 INT) and dangerous in the red area, while Jayce Brown (577 yards) is the explosive threat.

The recent form is blaring: Tech blanked Oklahoma State 42-0, while K-State hammered Kansas 42-17 – but Tech’s run defense versus K-State’s modest rushing profile (83rd) is the pressure point that decides it.

Bottom line: if Texas Tech stays ahead of the sticks and keeps the penalty count reasonable, the Wildcats won’t keep pace. The Red Raiders’ trench dominance on rushing defense, plus a top-five scoring attack, travel.