Ohio State football enters 2026 with a projected win total of 9.5 per CBSSports.com, a noticeable drop from last season’s 12-0 regular-season run.

That sounds like regression. It may actually be a warning about the schedule more than the Buckeyes themselves.

Ryan Day’s team still has the talent to contend for another Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth. Ohio State returns 11 starters, including eight on offense, giving the Buckeyes continuity at a time when many national contenders are replacing key pieces.

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The problem is what’s waiting on the schedule.

Ohio State is expected to face six teams ranked inside CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25, making its path one of the toughest in college football. That’s likely why FanDuel placed the Buckeyes behind Indiana and Oregon in the Big Ten win-total pecking order.

A 9.5 projection doesn’t suggest Ohio State has suddenly fallen off. It suggests oddsmakers believe the Buckeyes will have fewer easy Saturdays and a much smaller margin for error.

That distinction matters.

Coming off an undefeated regular season, almost any result in 2026 will look like a step backward on paper. Even a 10-2 finish would represent a two-game decline, yet it could still be enough to reach the playoff and make a serious run at the national championship.

History also says betting against Ohio State is dangerous.

The Buckeyes have lost more than two regular-season games only once since 2005. That level of consistency doesn’t happen by accident. Recruiting depth, elite quarterback play and a roster loaded with NFL talent have kept Ohio State near the top of the sport for two decades.

Still, the 2026 season won’t offer many breathers.

The Buckeyes will need their experienced offense to carry the load early and their defense to answer questions against a schedule stacked with ranked opponents. One bad road trip or late-game collapse could turn a playoff favorite into a team fighting for survival.

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Ohio State may not match last season’s perfection.

That doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are slipping.

It means 2026 is built to test whether they’re still one of college football’s true heavyweights.