The early contract projections for NFL free agency are beginning to shape offseason strategy, and one number is already turning heads in Cincinnati. According to Pro Football Focus, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson could command far less on the open market than what the Bengals would owe him under another franchise tag.

That gap matters. Hendrickson reworked his deal last summer to remain with the Bengals for the 2025 season, playing on a salary just shy of $30 million. If Cincinnati tags him again, the projected cost would climb to nearly $35 million fully guaranteed – a massive cap commitment for a player entering his age-31 season.

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PFF’s projection paints a very different picture. The analytics outlet estimates Hendrickson’s value at roughly $21 million on a one-year deal, with $17 million guaranteed. That’s a steep drop from the franchise-tag number and suggests the league may be weighing durability concerns more heavily than production.

The tricky part? Hendrickson’s on-field performance hasn’t really dipped. Even while battling injuries in 2025, he still graded among the NFL’s best pass rushers. PFF noted that he ranked sixth at the position in pass-rush grade and has now posted elite marks in that category for five straight seasons. When healthy, he remains one of the league’s most efficient pressure creators.

That puts the Bengals in a bind. Franchising Hendrickson only makes sense if it leads to a trade or secures his services at a number close to market value. But if other teams aren’t willing to absorb a $34.8 million cap hit for one season, Cincinnati could be left holding an expensive asset with limited flexibility.

At that point, the options narrow. Either beat the market slightly and keep Hendrickson at a more reasonable rate, or let him walk and recoup value through a future compensatory pick. Paying far above league consensus just to retain leverage would be a risky use of cap space for a roster with other needs.

Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin has already acknowledged how delicate these negotiations can be.

“We have to place a value on a player,” Tobin said earlier this offseason. “They’ll place their own value on themselves. We have to come to something that makes sense for both.”

Tobin also emphasized the broader picture.

“I’m negotiating on behalf of the rest of our football team… trying to preserve as much as I can to do other things that will benefit all of us.”

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For now, this is just one projection. The real market will take shape around the NFL Combine in late February, when conversations heat up, and league priorities become clearer.

Until then, Hendrickson’s future remains one of the Bengals’ most fascinating—and consequential—offseason questions.