Florida State and NC State both enter Friday night sitting at 5-5, which tells you most of what you need to know … neither team has lived up to expectations, and both are one loss away from bowl-season embarrassment. Someone has to get to six wins, and ESPN will televise it whether we like it or not.

On paper, Florida State looks like a top-10 offense – 487.5 yards per game (7th), 227.7 rushing yards (9th), and 36.4 points per game (17th). In reality, the Seminoles have a habit of making things harder than they need to.

Quarterback Tommy Castellanos is a walking roller coaster with 2,317 passing yards, 12 TDs and six INTs, plus the occasional “hero-ball” rushing score like the two he added last week against Virginia Tech. The run game works, but no one has consistently taken over. Gavin Sawchuk leads with a modest 444 yards.

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The defense? Solid enough at 321.0 yards allowed (25th) and 20.3 points allowed (29th), which is another way of saying they’re good until they aren’t. They’re 84th nationally in red-zone defense, letting opponents score a ridiculous 85.7 percent of the time. Hope you like bend-don’t-break football that… breaks.

NC State’s offense is just good enough to keep fans frustrated, averaging 409 yards per game (51st) and led by QB CJ Bailey (2,531 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs, 69.4 percent). Daylan Smothers (823 rushing yards) and Terrell Anderson (552 receiving yards) do their part, but last week’s 41-7 disaster vs. Miami suggests the Wolfpack might be running on fumes.

Defensively, NC State is… well, bad, with  440.4 yards allowed (127th), the 136th-ranked pass defense, and a third-down defense that gives up conversions 45.1 percent of the time (124th). Not great when Florida State converts an absurd 51.9 percent of its own third downs (6th).

And yes, NC State’s 93.8 percent red-zone scoring (10th) is impressive, but the problem is getting there in the first place.

Florida State at least took care of business in a 34-14 win over Virginia Tech behind 134 receiving yards from Duce Robinson and a competent-enough showing from Castellanos.

Florida State should win. Florida State should dominate on the ground. Florida State should take advantage of NC State’s atrocious pass defense. But this is the same Florida State team that somehow plays down to its competition every chance it gets and insists on red-zone drama despite having superior talent.

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NC State has enough offensive production to make this uncomfortable, especially if Florida State’s defense keeps inviting teams into the red zone like it’s a holiday open house.

If Florida State plays to its numbers, it’ll walk out of Raleigh bowl-eligible by halftime. If they play like they have at times this season… buckle up for another “why is this close?” special on ESPN.

Either way, someone’s getting their sixth win … and neither fanbase will feel great about how they got there.