Houston will open the 2025–26 season as the Big 12’s team to beat after topping the league’s debut preseason media poll, with voters predicting a third straight regular-season crown for the Cougars. It’s a familiar perch: Houston is coming off a year in which it swept both the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles and then marched all the way to the NCAA National Championship Game.

Kelvin Sampson’s group returns the league’s nastiest calling cards – elite defense, relentless rebounding, and pace control—and the room-temperature take around the conference is simple: until someone knocks them off, they’re the favorite.

The closest challenger, according to the poll, is Texas Tech at No. 2. The Red Raiders boast the Conference’s Preseason Player of the Year in JT Toppin, giving Grant McCasland a true bell cow to anchor a roster that defends with length and finishes possessions on the glass. BYU checks in at No. 3 after last season’s surge; the Cougars space the floor, share it, and punish mistakes.

Arizona slots fourth and is projected to claim the final double-bye for the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament (March 10–14 at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City), a crucial edge in the league’s marathon.

From there, the middle tier is loaded with brands and bruisers. Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State round out spots five through eight – a quartet with the talent and coaching chops to crash the title chase if the front-runners wobble.

Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State land in the nine-to-twelve range, each with the athleticism and defensive ceilings to become bracket-busters in Kansas City. Utah, UCF, Colorado, and Arizona State complete the preseason order, but in a conference that routinely eats its own, the distance between “projected lower half” and “firmly on the NCAA line” can shrink quickly.

The Big 12’s national profile remains stout. A record-tying six league programs will open in the Preseason AP Top 25, underscoring how slim the margins will be from January through March. That’s why those top-four seeds—and the double-byes that come with them – matter so much.

Houston, Texas Tech, BYU, and Arizona enter November in the driver’s seat, but the league’s depth promises weekly turbulence.

Conference play begins Friday, January 2, and runs through Saturday, March 7, following a non-conference slate that should harden résumés and expose soft spots. By the time the bracket locks in Kansas City, expect a familiar conversation: Houston’s consistency versus everyone else’s upside.

If Toppin delivers a player-of-the-year campaign, Texas Tech has the two-way balance to unseat the champs. BYU’s spacing and shot profile make the Cougars a nightmare in close games. Arizona’s size and tempo can turn contests into track meets. And history says at least one from the Iowa State–Kansas–Baylor–K-State pod will fashion a month-long heater to make the top tier sweat.

Preseason Big 12 Men’s Basketball Media Poll:

1) Houston
2) Texas Tech
3) BYU
4) Arizona
5) Iowa State
6) Kansas
7) Baylor
8) Kansas State
9) Cincinnati
10) TCU
11) West Virginia
12) Oklahoma State
13) Utah
14) UCF
15) Colorado
16) Arizona State.

Houston is the rightful favorite on opening night, but the Big 12’s depth – and a half-dozen ranked teams – means the regular-season trophy will be earned possession by possession, week after week, all the way to Kansas City.