After 15 stages, Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) leads the 2021 Tour de France by 5:18, the largest advantage at this point in the race since the 1997 Tour de France, when Germany’s Jan Ullrich went into Stage 16 leading the race by 6:22.
Considering that we’re living in an era when Tour win margins are getting closer (the last four Tours were all won by less than two minutes), that’s a pretty impressive achievement. So it’s easy to see why many (ourselves included) are wondering if the race for the Tour’s yellow jersey is already over.
But here’s one of the things we love about the Tour de France: there’s always someone or something to root for. So with six stages left—including two massive days in the high Pyrenees—here’s what and who we’re rooting for:
A Slovenian Jour Sans
It wouldn’t be fair (or kind) to root for Pogačar to crash, get sick, or have some other act of the cycling gods derail him while on his way to winning a second Tour de France. But it’s perfectly fine to wish for what the French call a jour sans or “empty day.”
When they happen, the consequences of a jour sans can ruin a rider’s Tour—which isn’t what we’re hoping for here. No, we’d be happy with Pogačar cracking just enough to make the final week of the Tour interesting, enough to make his rivals think there’s still a chance of taking the yellow jersey off his shoulders.
Mark Cavendish
This is Mark Cavendish’s YOLO Tour de France, a race that he wasn’t even supposed to be riding. Yet here he is, wearing the green jersey and sitting one stage win away from breaking Eddy Merckx’s record of 34 Tour de France stage victories. Assuming he makes it through the next three days in the Pyrenees—which is no easy task—we reckon Cav will have two chances to make the record his own: Friday’s Stage 19 and Sunday’s Stage 21. Assuming Pogačar continues to dominate the Tour’s General Classification, Cav’s record-breaking run might be the only story we care about by the Tour’s final weekend.
The French
It’s been a terrible Tour for the French. Only one Frenchman has won a stage: Deceuninck – Quick-Step’s Julian Alaphilippe won Stage 1 in Brittany. But Alaphilippe rides for a Belgian team and the only stage won by a rider from a French team was won by an Australian (AG2R Citroën’s Ben O’Connor on Stage 9). That’s a pretty paltry showing for the home nation, one that we hope to see remedied during the final three days in the Pyrenees.
Stage 16 looks perfect for a breakaway filled with French puncheurs, and Stages 17 and 18 could go to one of the two French pre-race favorites who have since fallen out of GC contention: Groupama-FDJ’s David Gaudu and Cofidis’s Guillaume Martin. If nothing changes, this will be the lowest French win total since 2016, the last time the country took only a single stage victory.
Team Cofidis
No team exemplifies French futility more than Cofidis, a team that hasn’t won a stage at the Tour de France since 2008, the longest Tour-drought of any team in the race—by a lot. Here’s the good news: they have a complete roster and they actually have capable climbers and breakaway specialists like Martin, Simon Geschke, and Jesus Herrada capable of getting the job done before the race is over.
North Americans
American Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) got the ball rolling by winning Stage 15 in Andorra, but we want to see more wins from the American and Canadian riders in this year’s Tour. Canada’s Michael Woods (Israel Start-Up Nation) has been aggressive in the mountains all Tour and is still in contention for the polka dot jersey as the Tour’s King of the Mountains. A stage win and the polka-dot jersey would be a nice haul for a guy riding his second Tour.
American Neilson Powless (EF Education-Nippo) is also riding his second Tour de France. One of the more aggressive riders in last year’s Tour, he’s been relatively quiet so far this year. But he made the breakaway on Stage 15 and we get the sense that we might be seeing more of the 24-year-old before the Tour is over.
And don’t forget Tour rookie Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates). The American has been riding on behalf of Pogačar all Tour, but could put in a good time trial on Stage 20, a day when he finally gets to ride for himself.
Chris Froome (Israel Start-Up Nation)
Poor Chris Froome. Only one Tour de France victory away from joining Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain as the only riders to win five Tours de France, the Briton crashed violently a month before the 2019 Tour, ending his season and almost his career. That’s why everyone held their breath when Froome—now riding for Israel Start-Up Nation—went down in one of the crashes near the end of Stage 1: slow to pick himself up off the tarmac, we all thought his return to the Tour was over after only a few hours of racing.
But the 36-year-old has soldiered on, and despite finishing inside the top-100 only three times, we’re hoping he’s recovered enough to try and make an appearance at the front of the race at least once before the Tour is over.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
While Froome has made it clear that he intends to return to the Tour next year, we know that Spain’s Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) won’t be, Valverde’s already announced that he’s retiring at the end of the season, and at 41 years old, he’s earned it.
One of the stars of the Netflix docu-series, The Least Expected Day, Valverde’s won grand tours, classics, and even a world championship. He’s finished in the top-10 of a grand tour 20 times throughout his career, a record. We’d love to see him win one more stage—he came close to winning Stage 15 on Sunday in Andorra—before calling it a career.
Amund Grøndahl Jansen (Team BikeExchange)
It’s okay if you’ve never heard of Grøndahl Jansen, a Norwegian who rides for Team BikeExchange. But with six stages left in this year’s Tour, the 27-year-old is on the verge of an important achievement: winning the lanterne rouge. An officially unofficial honor bestowed upon the last rider to finish each year’s Tour, the lanterne rouge becomes a folk hero, a legend in their own right. (In the past, riders have even “raced” to finish last so as to profit from the publicity that often comes with the “prize.”) For us, the lanterne rouge is a reminder that just finishing the Tour is an achievement in itself—even if you finish dead last.
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