Wisconsin’s 2021 season-opener did not live up to the expectations we saw build throughout the offseason.
Camp Randall was full and rocking, Graham Mertz was back to begin his second year, the team was healthy and the schedule lined up to be manageable.
Well, despite outgaining Penn State, holding the ball for nearly 43 minutes of game time and driving within the Penn State 10 yard line four times, the Nittany Lions came away with a 16-10 victory.
Related: Final game grades, report card for Wisconsin vs. Penn State
The performance can be looked at one of two ways:
First, the Badgers outplayed a great football team and are in a good position moving forward (glass half full).
Or second, Graham Mertz showed some of the same 2020 struggles, the offensive line was poor and the Badgers lost an easily-winnable game.
Either way, there is a lot of football left to be played and this loss will not define the season.
So looking forward, here is Wisconsin’s updated ESPN FPI win probabilities for the remainder of the regular season:
List
Five takeaways from Wisconsin’s 16-10 loss to Penn State
September 11 vs. Eastern Michigan
Sep 14, 2019; Champaign, IL, USA; Eastern Michigan Eagles head coach Chris Creighton reacts during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 91.3%
Projected running record: 1-1
September 25 at Notre Dame (Chicago, Illinois)
Sep 5, 2021; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Jack Coan (17) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Notre Dame Badgers Win Probability: 39.8%
Projected running record: 1-2
October 2 vs. Michigan
Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Ronnie Bell (8) returned this punt 31 yards vs. the Western Michigan Broncos before doing down with an injury immediately after the play Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021 at Michigan Stadium. Credit: Kirthmon F. Dozier-Imagn Content Services, LLC
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 53.4%
Projected running record: 2-2
October 9 at Illinois
Aug 28, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters (18) runs with the ball in the first quarter during Saturday’s game with Nebraska at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 77.3%
Projected running record: 3-2
October 16 vs. Army
Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 78.3%
Projected running record: 4-2
October 23 at Purdue
Purdue tight end Payne Durham (87) celebrates a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021 at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette. Credit: Nikos Frazier / Journal & Courier-Imagn Content Services, LLC
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 64.9%
Projected running record: 5-2
October 30 vs. Iowa
Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras (7) huddles up with teammates including center Tyler Linderbaum and fullback Monte Pottebaum (38) during a NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Credit: Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen-Imagn Content Services, LLC
Predicted Winner: Iowa Badgers Win Probability: 49.8%
Projected running record: 5-3
November 6 at Rutgers
Greg Schiano after Isaih Pacheco of Rutgers scored a fourth quarter TD as Rutgers crushed Temple 61-14 in their season opener at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on September 4, 2021. Credit: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com-Imagn Content Services, LLC
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 59.1%
Projected running record: 6-3
November 13 vs. Northwestern
Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald reacts after a play against the Michigan State Spartans during the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 75.2%
Projected running record: 7-3
November 20 at Nebraska
Aug 28, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) runs past Illinois defensive lineman Keith Randolph Jr. (88) in the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 73.6%
Projected running record: 8-3
November 27 at Minnesota
Sep 2, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Gophers running back Bryce Williams (21) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin Badgers Win Probability: 57%
Projected running record: 9-3
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