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There will be a new champion at Wimbledon, and in a short amount of time we’ll crown either Ash Barty or Karolina Pliskova the Queen of the turf. The match is sure to be a tight one, filled with theater, so let’s get down to how best to attack this one.
Ashleigh Barty (-250) vs. Karolina Pliskova (+195)
Let’s start with profiling both. Barty enters this match having been relatively unbothered all tournament long, entering with a perfect record in all sets after dropping one in her opening-round win over Carla Suarez-Navarro. She fell behind in sets against Barbora Krejcikova and Angelique Kerber, but was able to use her expert returning and wonderful variety to get back into the swing of things.
Barty has that aura about her. Being a tennis machine, the No. 1 player in the world and a relentless presence, even some of the greatest in the world have fallen to her. Barty’s 55-16 record on the grass and 14-1 mark in the last two grass-court seasons.
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Karolina Pliskova shouldn’t be intimidated, though. A former Grand Slam finalist and someone who’s topped Barty twice, including at the U.S. Open in 2018, Pliskova’s game is as big as anyone’s, and she’s seemed in the mood at Wimbledon this year. Her record of 15-4 over the last two grass-court seasons isn’t too shabby, either.
Pliskova possesses one of the biggest serves in the game, and her returns have been on fire this tournament, swatting serves back with pace to cause real issues. Her long arms not only help her generate power, but I think they should help combat some of Barty’s tremendous spot serving. Only twice in their eight meetings did the proceedings not go the full three sets, and those two matches were won by Pliskova.
With that, I see a considerable edge on Pliskova to take a set. Her play this tournament has been too good, and this match should absolutely go the distance with two titans of the women’s game going blow for blow. I also will have some exposure to Barty 2-1, which is +275.
Edge: Pliskova to win a set (-130)
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