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Friday promises to be a fantastic day of tennis at the All England Club, with four men vying for the chance to play in this weekend’s final. Matteo Berrettini will compete in his second Grand Slam semifinal against Hubert Hurkacz, who’s into the final four at a Slam for the first time in his career, while Novak Djokovic will try to extend his winning streak against young Denis Shapovalov. With so much fun sure to ensue, let’s get down to best bets.
Matteo Berrettini (-230) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (+180)
Berrettini enters with a 10-match winning streak on the grass dating back to his title at Queen’s Club, and is fresh off a seemingly-commanding victory over a very in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime. His record on the surface now stands at 21-2 over the last two seasons, and his huge serve and forehand — two of the biggest weapons on tour — look absolutely unstoppable on the surface.
So why these odds? Well, let’s look into the last time these two played, which was in Miami two years ago. It was just prior to Berrettini’s massive run towards the top of the men’s rankings, and after a win at the Phoenix Challenger. He wasn’t quite as polished as he is these days, but he still came in as a favorite over Hurkacz (who, too, wasn’t quite at the level as he is now). After generating triple break point to start the match, and bringing about one more in the game before Hurkacz ultimately held.
Berrettini never really made inroads from that point, grabbing an early break in the second only to be broken back, and broken again later in the set. He managed to land 62% of his first serves, which is right around his average over the last 52 weeks, but winning 69% of his first-serve points was low for his standards. Hurkacz had a brilliant read on his serve early, and was able to engage Berrettini in rallies — which is the only way to take down the Italian.
Since then, Berrettini has elevated into the top 10, and Hurkacz has won a Masters 1000. While the former has accomplished more, both have probably grown equal amounts since then. Berrettini has always had more power and a bigger weapon than Hurkacz, but the Pole is incredibly talented and has since put together his mental game to match his variety.
Entering this match, Berrettini hasn’t exactly blown us away on serve. He did have solid numbers against FAA, but he landed just 53% of first serves against Ilya Ivashka, 51% against Botic Van De Zandschlup, and 61% against Guido Pella. So, he’s really landed his serves in at above-average rates twice, with the win over FAA seeing him win a tournament-low 76% of points behind his first serve. That’s lower than his 52-week average of nearly 80%, and it inspires confidence that a solid returner (and one who’s gotten to the Berrettini before) can return the Italian’s serve.
I think the return games should be solid for Hurkacz, who has been one of the best returners all tournament and did just topple two good servers in Roger Federer and Daniil Medvedev. His returning against Berrettini in Miami also inspires confidence, as did his spot serving then and his spot serving this tournament. He’s been a menace, and I think he’s underpriced here.
Edge: Hurkacz +180
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Novak Djokovic (-1250) vs. Denis Shapovalov (+650)
While the first match requires a lengthy breakdown, this one is probably a little easier to run through. Everyone knows Djokovic’s track record at this point, and what he’s done to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon. His grass court record across all levels and including exhibitions now stands at 109-22, which makes perfect sense watching him play tennis. Djokovic loves to push the ball back to the baseline and mix in backhand slices, and those are the things you need to do well to have success on grass.
Denis Shapovalov’s game doesn’t necessarily fit on this surface, but he does possess the sheer power to make inroads on grass. He’s looked mighty impressive to this point, hitting Andy Murray and Roberto Bautista-Agut off the court before battling his mental demons in a match against Karen Khachanov which he won in five sets. Shapovalov tends to bring his best tennis in these deep matches, and has a good track record at Grand Slams when he’s able to get out of the first round.
Shap and Djoker go way back, to the 2019 Australian Open. The World No. 1 holds a 6-0 record against the young Canadian, though the matches have been much closer than that number would indicate. The very first time these two met, at Djokovic’s favorite event, Shapovalov took a set off of him. He’s since player a handful of very close sets with the Serb, and lost to him in two thrilling ATP Cup matches the last two times they’ve met. In 2020, Shapovalov actually took the first set from Djokovic and broke him as he served for the match in the third before nerves got the best of Shapovalov and he fell in a deciding tiebreaker.
These two always put on a show, and over the last year and change the Canadian has matured a lot, begun working with a sports psychologist and picked up even more match experience. It seems like a fool’s errand to ever fade Djokovic at Wimbledon, but I think the history here, and the growth since those matches, points to Shapovalov giving Djokovic a real run for his money. I think at the very least, we see a tiebreak and three tight sets to cash this over.
Edge: Over 33.5 Games
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