For all Jurgen Klopp’s belief in the power of positive thinking, even he could be forgiven for looking ahead to January with a sense of impending gloom.
Covid restrictions, higher infection rates, fixture congestion and the prospect of a return of Premier League football in soulless, compromised empty stadiums will impact on every club. Liverpool have the added complication of losing its two world class strikers, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, and midfielder Naby Keita to the African Cup of Nations (AFCON).
No positive spin can offer reassurance Liverpool will not miss them, the goalscorers especially, albeit it might only be for the Premier League games at home to Brentford and away at Crystal Palace. Recent evidence suggests that in a race with Manchester City, the next dropped points may give Pep Guardiola an unassailable lead.
Under Klopp, Liverpool already have a history of paying a heavy price for the mid-season inconvenience of an international tournament.
On January 2, 2017, Liverpool trailed leaders Chelsea by five points in the knowledge Antonio Conte’s side were heading to Anfield at the end of that month. Optimistics imagined a two-point deficit by February. Liverpool, like this season, were also preparing for a two-legged League Cup semi-final.
Klopp’s side were energised by the signing of Mane and Joel Matip the previous summer, but Mane joined the Senegal team for AFCON shortly after New Year’s Day, his country reaching the final.
Matip, meanwhile, was involved in an ongoing dispute with Cameroon, who – having sought to pick the centre-back for the AFCON – were questioning the legitimacy of his international retirement with Fifa. He was not available for selection while Liverpool awaited guidance on his domestic eligibility, Matip missing until January 21.
By the time Mane returned, flown by private jet in time for the Chelsea meeting (a 1-1 draw on January 31 in which Mane appeared as a 74th minute substitute) Liverpool were ten points behind. The title bid was over.
Without Mane, Liverpool won one of their seven January fixtures, including losing to Southampton in the League Cup and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the FA Cup.
Those memories are not easily forgotten, and while Liverpool’s squad is far superior five years on, the quality of Mane and Salah is such that they are irreplaceable.
Salah tops the Premier League goal charts this season, Mane in fifth. Between them they have shared 125 shots this season, occupying first and second. Salah also leads the assists table, and no striker has played more Premier League minutes than him. Mane is third on that count, too.
Klopp is in an invidious position addressing how much his side might suffer in their absence.
He has lobbied for a change in the international schedule for years, and while there is a familiar argument that losing African players to their continental tournament in mid-season is a hazard of signing them, it does not make it palatable.
Klopp respects the competition but loathes the timing of it, taking no consideration of the global domestic calendar.
The Liverpool coach has learned to choose his words carefully over AFCON, though.
Last month he was accused of demeaning the event by a Nigerian journalist for referencing the ‘little tournament in January’ taking away so many key players.
Klopp meant it in an ironic way, of course. One can only presume the offended few who took it literally are in a state of confusion whenever they see the size of the character Little John in adaptations of Robin Hood.
The impact of Klopp being aggressively ambushed in that press conference is a vow of silence when asked about AFCON ever since. The gap can be filled by the extensive library of quotes expressing Klopp’s views.
“It is not about AFCON,” Klopp said in 2017. “I absolutely do not have a problem with the Africa Cup of Nations. It is the opposite. I have respect for all that they are doing there. It is a great tournament – in the middle of our season makes it not too cool, but that is not my decision.”
Jota and Firmino to the rescue?
In 2017, Klopp looked to Divock Origi to fill the gap left by Mane. That has not changed, and the form of Diogo Jota and return to fitness of Roberto Firmino offers comfort.
Only Salah has scored more league goals than Jota this season, the Portuguese striker developing into an Anfield superstar in his own right.
Providing there is no demand for players to report for AFCON early and miss the trip to Stamford Bridge on January 2, Liverpool should have enough quality to get through the Premier League fixtures between the competition’s duration from January 9 to February 6.
“Can we play exactly the same kind of football? Probably not,” says Klopp.
“The three boys helped us so much in the last three years and we knew they’re from Africa. Now they are maybe not here, probably not here. That is the situation. In this case we are far away from being the perfect solution without these players, but we know we have to deal with it.”