The 2024 Olympics are rapidly approaching, promising eternal glory and gold medals to the exceptional performances and YouTube ridicule to those who stumble.
The stark contrast is well-known to LeBron James, who has been on the receiving end of both, um, accolades. James and Team USA won gold in Beijing in 2008, and again in London in 2012. But in 2004, James and his American superfriends won bronze, which in USA Basketball terms is the equivalent of finishing last.
Those are the standards of Team USA, and understandably so. America is not only where the best league in the world is located, but it’s also home to hundreds of colleges that would make for legitimate teams elsewhere around the world.
In Barcelona in 1992, the Dream Team captured the imagination of the globe, headlined by Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and a plethora of NBA stars who dominated in such a fashion that opponents asked for autographs after getting beat by nearly 50.
That set the expectation for Team USA. Anything short of utter dominance was to be viewed as wholly unacceptable. That expectation has remained, although the team has faltered, not winning the FIBA World Cup since 2014 and losing six out of nine tournaments since 1990.
Now James and Team USA are off on another revenge tour, once again using the lack of a FIBA World Cup win to gather the biggest names in basketball to remind the world of their dominance.
As the Paris Olympics loom — the U.S. begins pool play Sunday as part of Group C along with Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico — it’s time to look at the top competition among the field of 12 teams that might present some issues for James and his friends on their path toward Olympic gold.
France
The host nation has stumbled in some of its tune-up games, but France’s frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama is as formidable a defensive big man duo as the Americans have ever faced.
France will outright not allow the aerial display that Team USA is known for. You won’t see a lot of alley-oops created in halfcourt sets, nor will you see smaller guards like Stephen Curry get deep into the paint and convert at a high rate.
Gobert and Wembanyama will take away a ton of interior scoring, forcing the U.S. outside, which is likely where the game will be decided. The FIBA 3-point line is a frequent weapon used by Team USA, and with the aforementioned Curry in the fold, it’s a shot France won’t like to concede, but which it might have to.
Offensively is where France might eventually fall apart. Outside of Wembanyama, the team does not have elite shot-creators. It has shot-makers, and plenty of current and former NBA players, but no one is capable of continuously breaking down Team USA’s defense off the dribble, regardless of how good Nando De Colo remains at age 37.
France does have Guerschon Yabusele, also known as The Dancing Bear, who is an extremely nimble, heavy-set power forward who has developed greatly since leaving the NBA in 2019. He’s won Liga ACB twice, the Euroleague in 2023, and the French LNB in 2021.
It’s not a coincidence that teams win a lot with him on the roster. Yabusele has developed into a strong 3-point shooter and is balancing that shot with calculated drives and an ability to move the ball effectively.
The Americans might experience a few situations where Yabusele dances right by them, unassumingly so, and somehow ends up with 15-17 points by the end of the night.
Of course, the big name is Wembanyama. If he can score at a high rate, combining outside shooting with interior shot-making, while setting up Gobert in high-low situations, that would change the DNA of a USA-France showdown game.
Needless to say, head coach Steve Kerr will put Wembanyama’s name atop his game plan.
Serbia
Whenever you face a player who has won three of the past four NBA MVP awards, including a title in 2023, you have to be ready.
Nikola Jokić is as dangerous in international competition as he is in the NBA, in large part due to his experience and development process of playing in Serbia when he was younger. He’ll read angles better than anyone in the Olympics, and he’s unquestionably the best post scorer in the tournament too.
Jokić has legitimate players around him. Vasilije Micić is a former Euroleague MVP and was one of the most potent guard scorers outside the NBA for half a decade, before he joined the league last season.
Bogdan Bogdanović, from the Atlanta Hawks, is a stable ball-handler and overall scorer who can initiate plays off the dribble, or play off actions created by Jokić and Micić. He can get hot from downtown and, having played against NBA stars for seven years, will enter the Olympics fearless of whatever opponent he stands across.
Serbia’s unselfish nature and system that’s built off ball movement — exploring gaps in the defense, and off-ball players moving in synchrony — is extremely difficult to get an early read on, meaning Team USA will need to play one of its most disciplined defensive games against them, as they’re matched up against each other in Group C.
What might cause the downfall of Serbia is health. Bogdanović was a late scratch in the showcase against Team USA on July 17, and Nikola Jović from the Miami Heat is reportedly going to miss the Olympics due to an ankle injury.
That means more responsibility on the shoulders of Jokić and Micić, pending Bogdanović’s availability.
If Serbia is short on available forwards, Filip Petrušev might get extended run. The 6-foot-11 forward is a strong, capable scorer who moves well off the ball and converts at a high rate around the basket.
Regardless of the rotation head coach Svetislav Pešić eventually settles on, Serbia isn’t a pushover.
Canada
Loaded with not just NBA players, but star-level players, Canada represents arguably the biggest threat to the U.S., as they’re headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a player who was deep in the MVP conversation last season.
While the team is centered around Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada’s depth is ridiculous. Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kelly Olynyk, Andrew Nembhard, Trey Lyles, Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort stand out as rotational NBA players, all of whom can influence the flow of a game.
Those names may not compare to, say, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards, but there’s an underlying difference between the two squads.
The aforementioned players on the Canadian roster are mostly role players, which means they’re accustomed to not being the primary stars on their respective teams. Whereas someone like Haliburton, on Team USA, will have to make significant adjustments and sacrifices in a bit role, his Pacers teammate — Nembhard — won’t have to go through a similar process. That isn’t an insignificant detail, as Canada is more likely to receive quicker role acceptance than members of Team USA.
What might work against Canada is the presence of Brooks, who seems to have frustrated virtually every single player in the NBA over the past few years, in particular James. There’s no question he’ll have a target planted firmly on his back during a potential Canada-USA showdown, to the point where you could potentially see 10-plus NBA All-Stars take turns in attacking him in a variety of ways. As good a defender as he is, that isn’t likely to end well.
Outside of the U.S., Canada is clearly the most talented and deepest team in the tournament. It’s in Group A along with Spain, Greece and Australia, and should advance when you consider its talent level.
Best of the rest
Australia
Despite developing a solid chunk of both all-around players and defensive aces over the years, Australia has never seemed to develop a few guys who can just — excuse the Twitter lingo — straight up get buckets. That’s a problem if it aspires to beat Team USA down the line. The team from Down Under will need outlier shooting from Josh Giddey to stand a real chance.
Germany
If the entire population of Germany is offended at being slotted down in the “best of the rest” category, that’s fair. After all, the Germans are the reigning world champions. But they won the World Cup when Team USA consisted of a skeleton crew, not the Tier 1 quality that’s on the roster for this tournament. They might get far in their own right, but as a USA-stopper, they’re lacking in multiple areas.
Team USA … ?
Yes, one of the biggest threats to Team USA is indeed itself. Call it hubris, call it lack of cohesion, call it a pattern of playing down to the level of competition, but all those aspects could rear their heads at any time.
In their preparation game against South Sudan on July 20, the Americans had to rally in the second half, after going down by as many as 16 points, due to a severe lack of sharpness.
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This is a pattern we’ve seen during multiple World Cups, where the players simply expect to walk into a 30-point win, without applying themselves.
Of course, those rosters didn’t have LeBron James, which makes that type of skepticism moot.
But with the world presenting a basketball product that’s never been better than what it currently is, Team USA simply cannot afford to go into games with any type of lackadaisical attitude. If it does, it will find itself in unpleasant situations and playing from behind.
All that said, Team USA is clearly the favorite. The collection of talent, and the chip on its collective shoulder, should see the Americans go undefeated through the tournament and ultimately win gold. Anything short of that would not just be a disappointment, but also extremely unexpected.