With the NCAA men’s tournament tipping off in earnest with a full slate of games on Thursday, we pulled together a roundtable to answer burning questions that’ll help you fill out your Tourney Pick’em bracket. Here are our Cinderellas, dark horses, first No. 1s to fall, best first-round bets and Final Four/champion picks.
Which mid-tier team could make a run?
Frank Schwab: I’m going to eliminate all top-four seeds for this, because there are some No. 4 seeds that aren’t dark horses (hello, UCLA). And fifth-seeded Iowa seems obvious so I’ll avoid the Hawkeyes. If there’s a team outside of that, it’s probably UConn. The Huskies aren’t great at anything but good across the board, and they have wins over Villanova and Auburn, two of the four No. 2 seeds.
Nick Bromberg: I already mentioned Iowa in the “first No. 1s to fall” section so it feels redundant to put the Hawkeyes here. But I’m not sure there’s another team outside the top four seeds that looks capable of winning the entire tournament. The No. 6 seeds look especially weak this year and I can’t find a team in that No. 7-10 range to make a run a la UConn and Kentucky in 2014. So I guess I’m saying it’s Iowa or bust.
Sam Cooper: UConn immediately came to mind for me. The Huskies have strong guard play and really rebound the ball. Houston is another team in that mold. Kelvin Sampson knows how to prepare his teams to play in March and the Cougars are one of those teams nobody wants to play with their level of physicality.
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Greg Brainos: Since 1988, there’s only been one team higher than a No. 4 seed to win it all, so I’ll ride with the UConn Huskies to do it again.
Pete Truszkowski: I love UCLA, but as a No. 4 seed the Bruins aren’t really a dark horse. Houston is a No. 5 seed, and they have the analytical profile of a Final Four team. They rank fourth in KenPom and they are top-11 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Being without Marcus Sasser hurts, but this team has tournament experience and Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches in the country. They don’t turn the ball over, they assist on a high percentage of their field goals and they rebound the ball well.
Mark Drumheller: I think Houston has a serious shot at returning to the Final Four as a fifth seed. Once they get into a Big Dance, they have the experience from last season to build on. The Cougars are ranked 10th and 11th in efficiency on both ends of the floor and have demonstrated the ability to overcome a great deal of adversity this season. Give me a well-coached, battle-tested team that plays hard defense and dominates the boards.
