The ongoing MLB lockout has left baseball frozen and uncertain in days when it should be thawing out and looking toward the glory of opening day. It has also left the winter’s business unfinished and in a state of suspended animation.
Whenever a deal is struck and players are summoned to spring training, there will be no time for picking up steam. Teams will have to be filled in at warp speed.
Despite a flurry of activity prior to the lockout, there are a lot of big names without teams and big roster holes without obvious answers. That means when the lockout ends, the domino effect of a major-league offseason could play out as rapidly as we’ve ever experienced.
Let’s get ready for the madness by thinking about how exactly those pieces might fall into place.
Freddie Freeman’s destination charges Matt Olson market
What goes first: The lockout has been so interminable that it has made some people question Freddie Freeman’s loyalty to the Atlanta Braves. The 2021 NL MVP and spiritual leader of the defending World Series champs is a free agent many thought would quickly re-up with the only team he has ever known. The fact that it didn’t happen prior to the lockout, though, has raised eyebrows.
Routinely batting .300 with 30-homer power, Freeman would make a ground-shaking addition for several contenders if either he or the Braves move on. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers could each use a left-handed bat.
The question is whether one of those powers prefers a younger alternative at first base. Or perhaps … if the Braves have the same idea.
What comes next: The best hitter likely to be traded between now and whenever opening day happens is also a left-handed hitting first baseman — Matt Olson, of the thrift-minded Oakland A’s. The Bunyan-esque Olson walloped 39 homers in 2021 while making major gains in the contact department. Still under team control through 2023, he rates as one of the game’s best cold corner fielders and figures to make something like a third of Freeman’s salary this season.
I’d guess that the vast majority of major-league front offices would rather have Olson than Freeman, if the choice were that simple, but getting Olson will require giving up some very, very good prospects. The A’s are imminently aware of what they have here, so even though he may be Plan A, Olson figures to move after Freeman signs to ratchet up the desperation levels of the clubs in pursuit.
Who else could be affected? Anthony Rizzo; Luke Voit; Carlos Correa; Max Muncy; Eric Hosmer; Oakland’s season ticket holders in right field; Fernando Tatis Jr.’s biggest fan.
Carlos Correa, Trevor Story remain as Yankees seek a shortstop
What goes first: The Yankees, one would think, are in the pole position to sign a shortstop. They’re moving Gleyber Torres back to second base. There’s a gaping hole in the Bronx where Derek Jeter used to stand. There was a stellar class of free agent shortstops. It all just makes sense.
That great shortstop class has dwindled to two difference-making names — Carlos Correa and Trevor Story. They each have their merits and concerns, but either would make for a huge upgrade the Yankees have to pursue. … Right?
Overstuffed with corner guys, their theoretical starting shortstop at the moment would be third baseman Gio Urshela. Their internal shortstop of the future is Anthony Volpe, who has leapt toward the top of prospect lists, but he has never seen Double-A. For a team whose increasingly unrealized ambition is the World Series every season, he isn’t good enough or sure enough to skip a pursuit of Correa or Story.
What comes next: Presumably some very interesting choices for the shortstop left standing. Teams that fancy themselves contenders that could use a shortstop (or fit one of these guys into their lineups somehow) include the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies and yes, even the Dodgers in the age of the DH. The wild card here? The Detroit Tigers, who could theoretically try to pull a Texas Rangers two-fer and pair Correa or Story with the already signed Javier Baez.
Who else could be affected? Anthony Volpe; Gleyber Torres; Gio Urshela; Javier Baez; J.P. Crawford and just about every other middle infielder within spitting distance of a playoff spot; New York tabloid headline writers.
Seiya Suzuki’s choice leads outfielders to new homes
What goes first: Star Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki has started the posting process to join an MLB team. That is on pause during the lockout, but the clock will start ticking again when it’s over.
A power hitter with a big arm in right field, Suzuki has a big market for his services. The numbers are high on Suzuki, spotting underlying ability that could produce an impact bat. Doubts about the recent flops of Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo could drive down his price tag, but expect a slew of teams to be chasing him for the high ceiling.
What comes next: A range of outfielders will fill in from there. Longtime New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto — probably the most promising target other than Suzuki — once looked primed for a major deal this offseason, but could take a pillow contract after a miserable 2021. The season-saving triumvirate of Braves acquisitions (Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler) will need homes.
Who else could be affected? Andrew McCutchen; Tommy Pham; Corey Dickerson; 2021’s cavalcade of magically productive San Francisco Giants fill-in outfielders.
DH rule opens avenues for Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
What goes first: The new CBA will include the designated hitter in both leagues, by all accounts. That expands the market for big boy bashers who perhaps shouldn’t play the field all that often. The best of these options are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, each coming off career years.
Castellanos has some J.D. Martinez to him. Since leaving Detroit, he has developed a more consistent power stroke that should play well as long as he chooses a home park that isn’t too cavernous. Schwarber has always hit the ball out anywhere, really, but displayed the sharpest discipline of his career in 2021, which lifted his batting average and seriously aided his overall numbers.
Schwarber has also been hailed for his leadership skills at several stops, so expect contenders in need of thump to be calling. The Milwaukee Brewers rank as a likely suitor for one of these bats.
What comes next: Nelson Cruz is the other obviously useful DH waiting out the lockout. The well-traveled, uber-respected veteran would be welcomed just about anywhere, but may be a Plan B due to his age and shorter-term outlook. He could be particularly attuned to a team’s chance at getting him his first ring.
Who else could be affected? Daniel Vogelbach; Khris Davis; Rowdy Tellez; Dom Smith; cranky double-switch-loving uncles everywhere.
Clayton Kershaw’s plans give Dodgers rotation clarity
What goes first: Clayton Kershaw has apparently entered the “Does What He Wants” stage of living legend-dom. After injuries cut down his 2021, there are questions about Kershaw’s next move. Would he opt for surgery or a year of rehab? Will he return to the Dodgers? Or could he stay closer to his home and join the Rangers?
The ball appears to be entirely in his court. Despite the more frequent IL trips, Kershaw remains a top-of-the-rotation arm when he’s on the mound. The Dodgers are certainly keeping his locker open.
What comes next: The biggest ramification that could come of Kershaw’s decision is probably any decision that leaves the Dodgers without him in 2022. Being the Dodgers, they’re not exactly hard-up for talent, but the rotation as currently constructed pales in comparison to the one they had when they bounced out of the NLCS. Tony Gonsolin, free agent upside play Andrew Heaney and twilight David Price could all work, but it’s not in Andrew Friedman’s DNA to count on any of that.
If Kershaw isn’t walking back through that door, and maybe even if he is, the Dodgers are candidates to upgrade that rotation through big signings — Carlos Rodon is probably the best arm left on the market — or seismic trades. The Oakland A’s are intent on cutting costs and have several useful starters, but the Cincinnati Reds could be the bigger target. Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are very good, and the Reds seem happy to tread water instead of build around them.
Who else could be affected? Frankie Montas; Sean Manaea; Chris Bassitt; several Dodgers prospects.