Every week throughout the season we’ll give you a college football viewing guide by highlighting the five best games of the coming weekend. We will pick those five games against the spread and highlight some other matchups that caught our eye from a betting perspective.
We’ve got a huge weekend on deck in college football.
Week 7 features six ranked vs. ranked matchups, including three enormous games where both teams are undefeated. Things begin in the noon window with a Big Ten clash between Michigan and Penn State before a massive SEC showdown between Tennessee and Alabama and a huge game in the Big 12 between Oklahoma State and TCU.
The card is so loaded two of those ranked vs. ranked games — No. 15 NC State at No. 18 Syracuse and No. 16 Mississippi State at No 22 Kentucky — were not even included in this preview story because of lingering quarterback health questions. For NC State, it’s unclear whether Devin Leary is healthy enough to play while Kentucky’s Will Levis was in a boot on the sideline in last week’s loss to South Carolina.
There are also a few ranked teams who are facing unranked opponents but could still be on upset watch or, in the cases of No. 19 Kansas and No. 24 Illinois, are outright underdogs.
We’ve passed the midseason mark, so these games are gaining importance by the week. We could look back at this weekend as a turning point in the season for a lot of teams.
(Note: All times ET, odds from BetMGM)
No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan
Time: Noon | TV: Fox | Line: UM -7 | Total: 51.5
This is the biggest game of the season in the Big Ten thus far. Penn State enters Ann Arbor coming off a bye with a 5-0 record that includes two road wins already on the year. The Nittany Lions had a last-minute touchdown drive to beat Purdue in Week 1 and then went down to Auburn and blew out the Tigers 41-12. PSU has a veteran quarterback in Sean Clifford and an improved running game with freshmen backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The defense is also off to a strong start, having forced 12 turnovers.
The PSU defense will have its hands full with Michigan, particularly corralling running back Blake Corum. Corum is seventh in the nation with 735 yards and is second with 11 rushing TDs. He’s been a big play threat for the Wolverines and is also a tremendous help for first-year starting quarterback JJ McCarthy. McCarthy has been very efficient, albeit against some lackluster competition. UM played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country and has knocked off Maryland, Iowa and Indiana so far in Big Ten play. The visiting Nittany Lions will be Michigan’s toughest test by a significant margin.
Nick Bromberg: Michigan -7, Sam Cooper: PSU +7
No. 3 Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: Alabama -7.5 | Total: 65.5
All eyes will be on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, entering Saturday’s showdown in Knoxville. Young injured his shoulder two weeks ago in the Arkansas game and missed last week’s win over Texas A&M. Without Young, Alabama was just not the same, with backup QB Jalen Milroe turning the ball over four times. Those turnovers helped A&M stay in the game and the Aggies nearly pulled off the upset. But a goal line pass in the final seconds fell incomplete and the Crimson Tide survived to improve to 6-0. Needless to say, Alabama needs Young if it wants to leave Knoxville with a victory.
This is Tennessee’s biggest game in a long, long time. Not only has Tennessee lost 15 straight against Alabama, but a win here would put the Vols in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. To get to this point, Tennessee has used a potent offense led by senior quarterback Hendon Hooker. Hooker has already led Tennessee to road wins over Pitt and LSU, as well as a home win over Florida. Hosting Alabama is a step up in competition, but Tennessee looks to have the goods on offense to pull off the upset. Even Texas A&M’s lackluster group could move the ball on Alabama. But whether the Tennessee defense is ready for the step up in competition remains to be seen.
Nick: Tennessee +7.5, Sam: Tennessee +7.5
No. 8 Oklahoma State at No. 13 TCU
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: TCU -4 | Total: 68.5
From top to bottom, the Big 12 feels like the most balanced and competitive conference. And to this point in the season, Oklahoma State and TCU are the lone unbeatens remaining in the league (Kansas State is 3-0 in Big 12 play but has a loss to Tulane). Oklahoma State was expected to contend for the conference crown. OSU played in the title game last year and was in CFP contention, but lost a heartbreaker to Baylor. Now the Cowboys want a chance at redemption. They already went on the road to beat Baylor this year and are coming off a 41-31 win over Texas Tech. The defense is nowhere near as strong as it was last fall and will face another big challenge on Saturday in Fort Worth.
When the season began, TCU was considered more of a long shot in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs were transitioning out of the Gary Patterson era and brought in Sonny Dykes from SMU to take the reins. The transition has gone as smoothly as TCU could have hoped — especially on offense. The Horned Frogs have gotten better and better as the weeks have progressed, posting wins over SMU, Oklahoma and Kansas. Max Duggan is playing the best football of his career at quarterback, Kendre Miller has been excellent at running back and receiver Quentin Johnston finally had his breakout last week with 14 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown in the win over Kansas.
Nick: OSU +4, Sam: OSU +4
No. 4 Clemson at Florida State
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Clemson -3.5 | Total: 51
Is this trip to Florida State the toughest test of the season so far for Clemson? The oddsmakers certainly think so. Clemson is just a 3.5-point favorite on the road at FSU, according to BetMGM. That’s the smallest point spread of the year for the Tigers, who were favored by 7.5 points at Wake Forest and 6.5 points at home vs. NC State. Clemson handled NC State 30-20 but needed double-overtime to best Wake Forest. That was a day game in Winston-Salem. A primetime game in Tallahassee is a different animal and the Tigers could be in for a serious challenge from an FSU team coming off back-to-back losses.
FSU is in its third season under Mike Norvell and have clearly improved, but the last two weeks were a setback. The Seminoles started the year 4-0 and were back in the Top 25 before losing 31-21 at home to Wake Forest and then blowing a 17-3 lead in last week’s 19-17 road loss to NC State. Florida State has been dealing with a lot of injuries in recent weeks, with top running back Treshaun Ward’s status up in the air after he was injured in the NC State game. Nonetheless, you know FSU will be motivated with Clemson coming to town. The chance to upset a top 5 team only comes around every so often.
Nick: FSU +3.5, Sam: Clemson -3.5
No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah
Time: 8 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: Utah -3.5 | Total: 65
The Lincoln Riley train at USC keeps on rolling. The Trojans are now 6-0 with a 4-0 mark in Pac-12 play so far in Riley’s first season running the program. But there’s been just one tough road test on the schedule so far, and USC needed a late Caleb Williams touchdown pass to escape Oregon State with a 17-14 win. Since then, USC has taken care of business at home vs. Arizona State and Washington State before this weekend’s trip to Salt Lake City. Williams hasn’t been super sharp in recent weeks, but running back Travis Dye has topped 100 yards in four of the last five weeks.
On the heels of a Pac-12 title last year, Utah dropped its opener on the road to Florida but rebounded with four straight wins. That set up a big one last Saturday at UCLA, but the Utes were thoroughly outplayed in a 42-32 loss. With USC, UCLA and Oregon all still unbeaten in conference play, this is a big game if Utah wants to get back into the Pac-12 title race. Utah hasn’t been as stout along the lines of scrimmage as usual, but this team still has a lot of talent. That includes Cam Rising, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. The Utes will need a big game from Rising to pick up a needed win over USC.
Nick: USC +3.5, Sam: USC +3.5
Head-to-head ATS: Nick: 17-13, Sam: 16-14
Week 7 best bets
Nick Bromberg (Last week: 2-1, Overall: 12-6)
Miami OH (-6.5) at Bowling Green: Both teams are 1-1 in MAC play but Miami looks to be the better team. Bowling Green has been outscored by 86 points so far this season while Miami has a win over Northwestern and its MAC win is over Kent State. Bowling Green’s is over an Akron team that’s been outscored by 135 points. With the spread within a touchdown, I’m taking the favorite. Pick: Miami -6.5
Arkansas (-1.5) at BYU: The Cougars’ loss to Notre Dame was just the second time a BYU game has gone under so far this season. Arkansas games have gone over five times in 2022. But this is the highest total of the season for either team. Arkansas hasn’t scored more than 26 points in each of its last three games and BYU’s offense struggled against the Fighting Irish. I’m going against the trend. Pick: Under 66.5
San Jose State (-8.5) at Fresno State: QB Jake Haener is set to miss the game again for Fresno State. The Bulldogs haven’t covered a spread all season and most recently lost by five to UConn and by 20 to Boise State. Couple that with a San Jose State defense that’s the best in the Mountain West and this should be an easy win for the Spartans. Pick: SJSU -8.5
Sam Cooper (Last week: 0-3, Overall: 11-7)
Minnesota (-6.5) at No. 24 Illinois: Illinois is coming off two physical wins over Wisconsin and Iowa and could be without QB Tommy DeVito, WR Isaiah Williams and two defensive starters in this one. Minnesota is coming off a bye and is going to have star RB Mo Ibrahim back in the lineup. I took Minnesota to cover in my picks column, but I actually like the under the more I think about it. I have a lot of respect for Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. Pick: Under 39.5
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-12.5): Coastal is still undefeated but has played several close games against bad opponents. The Chanticleers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. Old Dominion is coming off a bye and has enough talent to keep this within the number. Pick: ODU +12.5
Utah State (-10.5) at Colorado State: Utah State is just 2-4 but has looked much better in recent weeks with Cooper Legas at quarterback. USU played BYU into the fourth quarter in Provo and then upset Air Force last week. The Aggies are the defending Mountain West champions and a much better team than what they showed early in the year. They can roll past a terrible Colorado State team. Pick: Utah State -10.5
For other Week 7 picks from Sam Cooper, click here.
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