Week 6 Heisman and CFB Title odds

Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

Heisman odds

• Alabama QB Bryce Young (+120) has re-assumed Heisman favorite status after a one-week break from the top. In last Saturday’s 42-21 blowout win over Ole Miss, Young went 21-of-27 passing for 241 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

• Young can thank his defense as much as his own performance for re-taking pole position. Alabama shut down Ole Miss QB Matt Corral (+200) on Saturday. Corral went 22-of-32 for 213 yards with two total scores while losing a fumble. Corral still has a 10/0 TD/INT rate while averaging a little more than 300 passing yards per game with six additional rushing touchdowns for a 3-1 team. But the Alabama game really hurt his candidacy, particularly with Bryce Young shining on the other side. Voters aren’t going to forget that Young outplayed Corral, that the Tide led 35-0 in the third quarter, or that the Tide held Ole Miss to 291 total yards. At the end of the season, Corral’s counting numbers are likely to be more impressive than Young’s. But Corral’s best chance of rallying past him again is for the Rebels to finish with double-digit wins. SP+ projects the Rebels to finish with 7.9 wins.

• Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder (+1400) is a big upward mover on the Heisman board this week after he threw for 297 yards and two scores to lead the Bearcats to the biggest win in program history, a 24-13 upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. Cincinnati will be favored in their remaining games and now have a very real shot to make the playoff. That gives Ridder no worse than a puncher’s chance at winning the award. If Cincy breaks the G5 barrier into the playoff, Ridder is going to get some momentum as the people’s choice for the hardware. But Ridder currently ranks only No. 25 in QBR, and his passing numbers won’t be gaudy. On top of that, Ridder’s rushing utility has quietly fallen off a shelf this fall. After averaging 605.7 rushing yards per season the last three years (2018-2020) on 4.6 YPC with 22 touchdowns, Ridder only has 98 yards rushing and three scores on 3.3 YPC this fall through four games. I understand why he’s priced as aggressively as he is, but even if Cincy makes the playoff — which they’ll need to do for Ridder to win — voters will have to reconcile with voting for an AAC quarterback that doesn’t have the stats of any of the winners of the past 15 years at his position.

• Preseason favorite ​​Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler saw his odds fall from 25-to-1 to 30-to-1. These are the longest odds Rattler has seen all year. What’s weird is that Rattler is coming off his best game of the season, a 22-for-25 performance with 243 yards passing and two touchdowns in a 37-31 win over Kansas State on Saturday. Rattler is a bargain at this price. Many years, the Heisman comes down to which of the playoff quarterbacks had the best statistical regular season. ESPN gives Oklahoma a 48% chance to make the playoff, the third-best odds on the board behind Alabama and Georgia (and Georgia’s quarterback ain’t winning the award). Through five games last year, Rattler was completing 69.5% of his passes for 1,518 yards and a 15/5 TD/INT rate. Through five games this season, he’s completing 76.3% of his passes for 1,260 yards and a 10/4 TD/INT rate. Rattler could surge up the rankings quickly with a few big games. Whereas last year, Oklahoma started 3-2, this year the Sooners are 5-0. Rattler was much better in the second half of last season than he was in the first. Forget what you’ve heard people say about Rattler this year. It’s surprising that a quarterback on an undefeated team with a 48% chance to make the playoff is 30-to-1 to win the Heisman. Do not forget about Rattler. He’s still very much live in this race. A big game and a win over Texas will more than slice his odds in half. I’d dip my beak.

• Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett had one of the biggest one-day, post-opener jumps in odds I’ve ever seen on Monday. When I recorded a video for NBC in the morning, Pickett was 60-to-1 to win the hardware, where PointsBet had opened him after un-freezing their Heisman odds. Two hours later, incredibly, Pickett had dropped all the way to 30-to-1. That’s an indication that some heavy-hitters laid the wood. Ironically, on the aforementioned video, I talked with my buddy Vaughn Dalzell about how I felt Pitt was the only bet to make in the ACC futures market (6-to-1 to win the conference) because of how forgiving the Panthers’ upcoming schedule is. SP+ favors Pitt to win every game going forward, with the exception of one: A home date against Clemson on October 23 (42% win expectancy). But by the time October 23 gets here, Pitt could be favored in that game. SP+ gives Pitt a 9% chance to make the playoff. If the Panthers make it, Pickett will very much have a chance to win. The stats will be there. Pickett ranks No. 4 in passing yards (1,731) and No. 2 in passing TD (19). Not only that, but he’s only thrown one interception. It’s a bummer he’s no longer available at 60-to-1, but Pickett is still worth a bet at 30-to-1. The dummy’s math on that is Pitt is about 10-to-1 (ESPN odds) to make the playoff, and Pickett might be a coinflip to win if they do.

• There are a number of players listed at 200-to-1 on the PointsBet board. Only one of them is worth discussing. But he at least has a path — a treacherous, long-shot path, but a path nonetheless. USC WR Drake London has been the nation’s best receiver in 2021. He ranks No. 1 in the FBS in catches (48) and receiving yards (670) through five games. The consistency has been astounding. In four of five games, London has cleared 100-receiving yards while snagging at least nine receptions. His biggest impediments to winning the award are the team he plays for and the position he mans on the field. USC is only 3-2, and SP+ projects the Trojans to finish 7-5. Beyond that, only two receivers have won the award in the past 30 years: Desmond Howard (1991) and DeVonta Smith (2020). Smith posted a 117/1856/23 receiving line and a return TD in 13 games for the undefeated national champs last year. Howard had 1,165 yards from scrimmage and 23 total touchdowns in 1991, along with almost 700 return yards. London is currently on a 13-game pace for a 125/1742/10 receiving line. For London to win, he’s going to have to maintain the reception/yardage pace while bumping TDs from 0.8 per game to 2.0 (which would leave him with the magic number of 20) — and pray USC finishes at least 9-3 and that a playoff quarterback doesn’t run away with the award.

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National title odds

• It’s a matter of curiosity that the Georgia Bulldogs (+150) are now sole favorites to win the title. Last week, UGA shared that designation with Alabama (+160). Each team blasted an undefeated top-25 team last Saturday. Georgia shut out Arkansas, and Alabama doubled-up Ole Miss. ESPN gives Georgia an 87% chance to make the playoff, and Alabama an 86% chance to make it. No other team is higher than 48%.

• Whereas the odds for Oklahoma’s quarterback to win the Heisman keep getting longer, the Sooners themselves actually took a step forward at the pricing window this week, going from 20-to-1 to win the title to 15-to-1. Oklahoma is No. 3 on ESPN’s playoff odds board at 48%. And by the way: Oklahoma can afford one loss in the regular season, so long as they win the Big 12 title game. ESPN gives the Sooners a 95% chance of making the playoff under that scenario.

• Cincinnati is the biggest riser on the board this week. The Bearcats’ odds to win the title were slashed from 40-to-1 to 25-to-1 after upsetting Notre Dame. ESPN gives the Bearcats a 32% chance of making the playoff. But assuming if Cincy win out, ESPN increases that to 82%. Cincy’s hardest remaining game: Hosting SMU on Nov. 20. ESPN gives Cincy a 76% chance of winning that game.

• If you have a strong lean in the Penn State (+3) at Iowa game this week, my suggestion is to sprinkle a little bit on that team in the futures market. The winner of that game will see their title odds drastically slashed next week. Penn State (+3,300) has a 12% chance to make the playoff, per ESPN, while Iowa is listed at 21%. That’s mostly because Penn State has a game at Ohio State later this fall, while Iowa avoids Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State altogether.

Games of the Week

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas (Dallas)

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss

No. 2 Georgia at No. 18 Auburn

No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa

No. 1 Alabama at Texas A&M

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