Warriors’ five biggest questions one month before training camp originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The glory of Steph Curry’s Olympic heroics are in the rearview mirror. Offseason vacations are coming to an end. With the first practice of Warriors training camp now less than one month away, we dove deep into five questions that will need to be answered.
Who Will Be Steph’s Starting Backcourt Mate?
The player who leads the NBA in 3-pointers made over the last five seasons seems like the least likely option to be the Warriors’ starting shooting guard. Buddy Hield, 31, is the easiest fit to step into Klay Thompson’s 3-point-shooting shoes. But he also most closely resembles what the Warriors envisioned in Klay if he returned.
Since Thompson returned from injury on Jan. 9, 2022, the forever Splash Brother has made 683 threes. Hield in that span has sank 622. For how much he’s a threat from deep, Hield always has been seen as a negative defensively. However, his 1.6 defensive win shares last season did tie a career-high. Still, his skill set screams shooter off the bench.
Another veteran addition the Warriors brought in and can start games alongside Curry is 26-year-old De’Anthony Melton. Pairing Melton with Curry would make sense from a balance standpoint. Curry and Thompson weren’t a dominant duo at their peak solely for being perhaps the two greatest 3-point shooters ever. It was Thompson’s defensive prowess and versatility that pushed them over the edge.
That’s where Melton comes in, as long as he’s healthy. A back injury held him to 38 games last season. The season before, Melton was worth 3.1 defensive win shares, and 2.8 in 2021-22. Melton, like Curry, is only 6-foot-2. His 6-8 wingspan makes him a headache for opposing offenses.
Both Hield and Melton will be vital to the Warriors’ success. A second-year standout from his rookie year still has the clearest path to the starting job. Brandin Podziemski, 21, was the first player to replace Thompson in the starting five under Steve Kerr, and his role is only going to continue growing in Year 2.
The question is if that will be off the bench or as one of the first five on the floor. Podziemski shot better in reserve, and his offensive and defensive rating off the bench – 119 Ortg, 116 Drtg – upstaged his 115 Ortg and 118 Drtg in 28 starts. Yet the 117 offensive rating Podziemski and Curry produced together was the best among partners for Curry who played at least 500 minutes. The two had a 4.1 net rating, the fourth-best for Curry and a teammate.
Kerr surrounding Curry with length and athleticism and making Andrew Wiggins a shooting guard is the wild-card option that might be reality at times.
Do The Warriors Have A No. 2 Scorer?
Curry will be 37 years old in March and just showed while saving Team USA men’s basketball in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics that building around him is still a pretty damn good idea. The Warriors tried to give him a legitimate, established second scoring option this summer in Paul George and Lauri Markkanen, but fell short in both bids. So, now what?
Before we answer that question, let’s have a quick reality check. Everybody on Team USA’s roster has a teammate on their NBA roster that is either a No. 1 or No. 2 scoring option. The same goes for every team in the Pacific Division, and every Western Conference team that either made the playoffs or play-in tournament last season.
Except for the Warriors. They have options, though each comes with a question mark.
Between the starting shooting guard options, Hield averaged the most points per game last season at 12.1, his lowest since his rookie year. Melton’s 11.1 points last season before his season fell short to injury was a career high, and he has shot 38.3 percent from three the past four seasons as someone who is seen as a defense-first player. Podziemski for how much more the Warriors want him to shoot, with a major emphasis on the 3-point shot, feels like the one out of the three who could top the shooting guards in scoring. Whether Podziemski is starting or coming off the bench, he will see some of the most minutes on Golden State.
Wiggins and his vanishing act last season saw his scoring averages fall all the way down to 13.2 points while shooting 35.8 percent on threes. He averaged 18.6 points his first full season with the Warriors, 17.2 points in his NBA All-Star 2021-22 season, 17.1 the season after that and then slashed four points per game as the Warriors failed to miss the playoffs. He’s in his 11th pro season, and somehow is the Warriors’ biggest unknown.
Which brings us to the most likely player to assume the second scoring spot in Jonathan Kuminga, who turns 22 in October. With Thompson gone, Kuminga is the Warriors’ second-highest returning scorer after bumping his scoring averages by more than six points to 16.1. He has the athleticism to get to the rim whenever he wants. The holes also still are apparent, and for Kuminga everything comes down to consistency.
If everything comes together, Kuminga can be a real No. 2 next to Curry and trend closer and closer to a future All-Star.
Which Jonathan Kuminga Shows Up?
After an offseason full of Kuminga sharing workout videos on his Instagram of him knocking down shots, throwing down dunks and going through dribbling drills, potential has to be replaced by production on a game-to-game basis.
Kuminga has averaged 2.2 3-point attempts per game each of the last two seasons. He was a 37-percent 3-point shooter in 2022-23, and dropped all the way down to 32.1 percent last season. A two-man lineup of Kuminga and Wiggins were a minus-0.3 net rating last season, though Kuminga and Draymond Green had a 9.4 net rating together.
He’s best served as a four, but has the size of a three, which is also the position Kuminga should be guarding, though he doesn’t shoot well enough to be a small forward as opposed to a power forward. Kuminga shot 62.1 percent less than 10 feet from the basket last season, and 30.8 percent everywhere else.
From Jan. 27 through March 26, Kuminga went on a two-month stretch where he started all 29 games for the Warriors and averaged 19.1 points. The Warriors went 18-11 in that span. When he’s locked in on defense first and simplifies his offense, Kuminga can quickly be one of the better two-way players in the NBA. It just depends on how often that is from all standpoints, and in a team concept.
A Wiggins-Kuminga-Green three-man lineup last season had a 10.9 net rating – 116.4 offensive rating and 105.5 defensive rating – in 427 minutes, showing the importance of Green for both players, and gives Kerr some interesting rotation decisions to make in spurts.
Are The Warriors Too Small?
That three-man grouping also makes the Warriors’ center, Green, their smallest player. He’s listed at 6-foot-6, with Wiggins being 6-foot-7 and Kuminga 6-foot-8.
Trayce Jackson-Davis took over as the Warriors’ starting center in place of Kevon Looney for the final month-plus of the regular season. Both are 6-foot-9, and both are the Warriors’ tallest players on the current roster. Golden State’s 2024 second-round draft pick Quinten Post is a 7-footer, but doesn’t even have a roster spot – standard or two-way – at the time of this publishing.
Still, the Warriors led the NBA in rebounding last season and ranked 12th in opponent’s rebounds per game. They averaged the fourth-most defensive rebounds per game, and the fifth-most offensive rebounds. But also the fourth-fewest steals per game, and sixth-fewest blocks.
Kyle Anderson at 6-foot-9 adds length and optionality on both sides of the ball. Melton plays longer than his listed height, and a big boost to the Warriors’ rebounding was due Podziemski’s nose for the ball at only 6-foot-4. The time-old question of if the Warriors are too small also can’t be ignored.
The 3-pointer is king in today’s NBA. Even more so is the skilled big man. In the Western Conference alone the Warriors have to deal with the twin towers of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota, Nikola Jokic in Denver, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in Oklahoma City, Anthony Davis and Ivica Zubac between the two teams in LA, Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento, Dereck Lively II in Dallas, Jusuf Nurkic in Phoenix, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. in Houston and of course Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio.
At some point, the height and size discrepancy seemingly has to catch up to the Warriors.
Any Other Roster Changes?
There won’t be seismic changes to Golden State’s roster before the season begins. However, with the first practice in Hawaii happening on Oct. 1, there will be some changes.
Post will have to be added to the roster during September. He needs a contract to be part of training camp, and the most likely route appears to be as a two-way player. The problem is, the Warriors already have their three two-way contracts secured right now.
Thanks to an impressive summer league showing, Daeqwon Plowden will have one of those. The remaining two are Pat Spencer and Reece Beekman. Spencer’s ability to handle the ball as a veteran that already knows the system could give him the upper hand. Beekman has real defensive upside, but he might be the odd man out.
The Warriors don’t have room to add a 15th player to the roster. This also is the time of year where players come in for training camp and compete for a spot. Remember Rudy Gay last year? A few years back Gary Payton II beat out Avery Bradley for a spot, which turned out to be a steal and a career-changing deal for Payton.
Gui Santos and Lindy Waters III are on non-guaranteed contracts. Could an outside player come in and beat either of them out? There will be competition, one way or another.