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There is only one universal truth in fantasy football: There is no joy in winning, only relief.
You may think you want to win, that it’ll be fun and enjoyable to claim victory over a league mate. But really, you only want not to lose. It’s how the human brain works. It’s called loss aversion, and it means we are programmed to avoid losing by any means necessary. Don’t mistake this for a drive to win. That’s not it.
And, of course, this phenomenon is not isolated to fantasy football. NFL greats, including guys like Brett Favre and Dan Marino, have talked extensively about the relief they felt when they didn’t lose. It’s always about not losing, not winning. Anyone with a fully-functioning amygdala knows how this works.
On we grind, in our never-ending quest not to lose. Work the waiver wire successfully this week — with everyone gnashing their teeth through bye week terrors — and you might avoid losing in Week 7.
Below are Week 7 waiver priorities, along with crowdsourced free agent budget data from fantasy football researcher Freeman Smith. Hopefully Smith’s data (from his FAAB Lab) helps you wrap your head around how your league mates will value waiver wire players this week.
Come chat with me about waivers every week at 1 ET on the NFL on NBC YouTube Channel.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan (IND)
Rostership: 28 percent
The Colts deployed a hurry-up, pass-heavy attack against the Jaguars in Week 6. And here’s the thing: It worked. Getting the ball out quickly — Ryan averaged a season-low 2.37 seconds in the pocket on pass attempts — the dusty old QB racked up 385 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback win against the down-bad Jags.
Ryan thrived on the quick-hitting attempts, totaling 271 yards and two touchdowns on throws with less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket, per Pro Football Focus. He completed 75 percent of his attempts with the drop-back-and-let-it-go approach. Maybe the Colts will stick with the quick throws even when Jonathan Taylor (ankle) re-enters the fold. Ryan has a superb Week 7 matchup against a Tennessee secondary allowing the fifth-highest EPA per dropback and the seventh-highest dropback success rate. Enemy quarterbacks have completed 67.5 percent of their passes against the Titans, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
Ryan is very much the top quarterback streaming option in Week 7.
Other quarterbacks to roster
Bailey Zappe (2 percent): Zappe has been downright commendable in his spot starts for New England. No QB has a higher completion rate over expected than Zappe over the past two weeks. It is indeed Zappe hour. The zoomers are saying so. He gets the Bears this week, and while Chicago isn’t all that good against the pass, teams are choosing to annihilate them via the ground game. Fifty-four percent of plays against the Bears have been rushes — the highest rate in the league. Zappe’s floor might vanish in such a scenario.
Taylor Heinicke (0 percent): Heinicke isn’t good. In fact, he’s bad. Probably he’s way worse than Carson Wentz, who’s out for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger on his throwing hand. Heinicke is a fine Superflex pickup though because he plays quarterback and has a pulse, per the Washington medical staff. His only viable path to fantasy viability is to string together some decent passing days with a fair amount of rushing. In 2021, Heinicke rushed 60 times for 313 yards and a touchdown in 15 games.
Tua Tagovailoa (68 percent): I’m only mentioning Tua here because his rostership has fallen to below 70 percent during his three-week absence following a series of brain injuries. Mike McDaniel‘s offense is nothing if not good and fun for fantasy. Teddy Bridgewater managed 21 fantasy points in three quarters of work in Week 6 against the Vikings, and Tua before his head injury was fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring quarterback. Tua, expected back this week, gets a nice little matchup with a Pittsburgh defense giving up the seventh-highest dropback success rate this year.
Running Back
Latavius Murray (DEN)
Rostership: 15 percent
Lots of incredibly savvy fantasy managers nabbed Murray off waivers last week. It was clear the Broncos want nothing to do with Melvin Gordon as a workhorse back. They confirmed as much on Monday night when Gordon was benched after three rushing attempts in favor of Murray.
Murray saw every early-down snap for Denver in the second half of their Monday night loss. He rushed 15 times for 66 yards and saw one target on nine routes. Mike Boone, meanwhile, ran a pass route on 36 percent of the team’s dropbacks, leading the backfield. Murray should be a priority for managers scraping bottom during the horrors of bye week szn.
Nyheim Hines (IND)
Rostership: 51 percent
Hines, inactive for Week 6 with a brain injury, could be back this week against the Titans if he can practice in a limited capacity. The first three plays of the Colts’ Week 5 game against the Broncos were schemed to Hines before he suffered a concussion. We know he’s the team’s preferred lead back when Jonathan Taylor is out. Hines would be a no-brainer top-15 fantasy option in Week 7 against the Titans if Taylor needs another week to rest his banged-up ankle.
Kenyan Drake (BAL)
Rostership: 5 percent
Please, for the love of your sanity, don’t think Drake staged some sort of coup in the Baltimore backfield last week against the Giants. J.K. Dobbins‘ knee reportedly bothered him and Drake stepped in as the lead back, racking up 119 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. It was Mike Davis, however, who got the goal line snaps, and Justice Hill could return from his hamstring injury in Week 7. There’s also the specter of Gus Edwards looming over this Ravens backfield. Drake has no real upside unless he continues the Marcus Allen impression he did in Week 6.
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Rostership: 60 percent
Herbert remains one of the most valuable contingency options in the game. The Bears stubbornly refuse to transition to their best rusher even as he has wildly efficient outings (seven carries for 75 yards in Week 6 against Washington). As always, Herbert is one David Montgomery injury away from being a plugged-in RB1 in 12-team leagues.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
Rostership: 50 percent
Allgeier led Falcons running backs in pass routes and snaps in Week 6 against the Niners — a perfectly Arthur Smith-type game script that Atlanta probably won’t see all that often going forward. Allgeier logged 15 carries and Caleb Huntley had 16; Huntley had eight more yards while Allgeier had a far better yards after contact per carry.
Rachaad White (TB)
Rostership: 34 percent
This is my weekly plea for you to pick up White in case Leonard Fournette misses time and White instantly transforms into a fantasy RB1. That White’s playing time fell a bit in Week 6 against the Steelers doesn’t affect his tremendous contingency value.
James Cook (BUF)
Rostership: 27 percent
Purely a contingency option in case Devin Singletary gets dinged up, Cook is clearly ahead of Zack Moss in the Buffalo backfield pecking order. Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 6 against Kansas City. Though no Bills back will be a ceiling option thanks to the nature of the team’s offense, Cook would suffice as a sturdy RB2 play with Singletary sidelined.
Other running backs to roster
Kyren Williams (8 percent): Last we heard from Williams, he was — according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter — to play a big role in the Rams offense. Then, three minutes into the season opener, he suffered an ankle sprain that somehow required surgery and has been shelved ever since. The Rams are awkwardly parting ways with Cam Akers, by every indication, making Darrell Henderson the team’s top back for now. Williams could be ready to go coming out of LA’s Week 7 bye and might carve out a role behind Henderson. Williams, who had more than 2,100 rushing yards and 31 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Notre Dame, would figure to function as the Rams RB1 should Henderson miss time. Malcolm Brown might have something annoying to say about that though.
Deon Jackson (43 percent): Jackson went ballistic in Week 6 before exiting with a quad injury. With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (brain) out, Jackson brought in all ten of his targets for 79 yards and rumbled for 42 yards and a score on the ground. He was objectively impressive as both a pass catcher and a rusher against Jacksonville, averaging solid 2.7 yards after contact per rush attempt. Taylor’s imminent return takes all the short-term shine off Jackson. Who knows if Jackson will even play in the coming weeks with his quad issue? I wouldn’t be stunned if Jackson were the Colts’ lead back over Hines — or perhaps in a split backfield — if Taylor misses any more game action in 2022.
Gus Edwards (15 percent): Edwards, who continues his comeback from a 2021 ACL injury, told reporters on October 14 that he’s “close” to returning. He could walk into a Baltimore backfield in complete disarray, depending on the severity of J.K. Dobbins‘ knee situation. A speculative waiver add, Edwards would have to fight off Justice Hill, Kenyan Drake, and Mike Davis for playing time to claim the team’s lead back role.
Craig Reynolds (1 percent): Reynolds would presumably be Detroit’s RB1 should D’Andre Swift continue to miss time and Jamaal Williams gets banged up. Reynolds, who in a Week 15 start last season had 112 yards and a touchdown against Arizona, has been highly efficient as both a rusher and a pass catcher in limited opportunities this season.
Samaje Perine (7 percent): Perine would certainly be the Bengals’ lead back if anything were to befall Joe Mixon in the coming weeks. He’d likely be among the league leaders in running back pass routes — and possibly targets — with Mixon out of the picture. He should be stashed in 12-teamers.
Jaylen Warren (11 percent): This is the part of the column where I beg you to stash Warren in case Najee Harris misses time this year. Warren has been excellent on limited opportunities — far better than Harris.
Kevin Harris (0 percent): Functioning as the Patriots’ No. 2 back behind Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 6, Kevin Harris ran ahead of Pierre Strong and would seem to be next in line for backfield touches if Stevenson were to miss time (excuse me while I knock on wood until my knuckles bleed).
Justice Hill (1 percent): The aforementioned Ravens backfield will devolve into total chaos if Dobbins misses time. But it was only two weeks ago that head coach John Harbaugh said Hill played like a star as the veteran’s usage increased. Hill had 105 yards on 14 carries from Week 3-4 and ate into Dobbins’ route-running workload. He could very well be the team’s top back if he’s fully healthy and Dobbins sits in Week 7.
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Wide Receiver
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
Rostership: 8 percent
For those of us old enough to recall all the summertime hype surrounding Robinson — a highly productive rusher and receiver in college — his (real) NFL debut isn’t all that shocking. Sidelined since Week 1 with a knee injury, Robinson played his first full game for the Giants in Week 6 against Baltimore and caught three of four targets for 37 yards and a touchdown.
The team was clearly easing the rookie into what could be a role as the Giants’ full-time slot guy. Running a route on 34 percent of Daniel Jones‘ dropbacks, with two-thirds of his routes originating in the slot, Robinson led the Giants in receiving yards, and his 3.37 yards per route run led all New York pass catchers by a wide margin.
Richie James, meanwhile, saw his former full complement of routes nosedive to a 37.5 percent rate. His history as a hybrid running back/receiver in college could eventually lead to some rushing attempts. More useful in PPR formats, Robinson should be picked up in most 12-team leagues this week. He should fit well as a short-area compiler in an offense helmed by Daniel Jones, whose average intended air yards per attempt (6.2) is dead last in the league.
Michael Gallup (DAL)
Rostership: 50 percent
Gallup is back as a full-time player in the Dallas offense and has the second-most targets on the team over their past two games, trailing only CeeDee Lamb. He’s operating down the field, with a 12.5 average depth of target, and was real close to a touchdown on Sunday night against the Eagles. Dak Prescott‘s return might inspire the team to open things up on offense (Cowboys have the NFL’s fourth-lowest pass rate over expected). Gallup would be among the beneficiaries of such an approach.
Tyquan Thornton (NE)
Rostership: 1 percent
Thornton is going to force the Patriots to use him as a full-time player — of this I am (somewhat) certain. The rookie second-round pick flashed throughout training camp before the collarbone injury that required surgery and sidelined him for the season’s first month and change. His debut could hardly have been more impressive: Thornton, with Kendrick Bourne departing with an early injury against the Browns, ran a route on 73 percent of Bailey Zappe‘s dropbacks on his way to four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. He also had three rushes for 16 yards and a score. He was, to put it bluntly, the Patriots’ most effective playmaker.
Thornton was targeted on a not-terrible 19.3 percent of his pass routes against Cleveland. For context, Jakobi Meyers saw a target on 12.2 percent of his routes and DeVante Parker was targeted on 17.7 percent of his routes. His targets and his involvement in the rushing offense would seem to be a signal that the Patriots want the ball in Thornton’s hands. The rookie’s best-case scenario would be challenging Meyers for target share supremacy while seeing a couple rushing attempts per game. It’s not an entirely hateful profile for fantasy purposes despite the Patriots’ unfailingly run-heavy ways.
Robbie Anderson (ARI)
Rostership: 11 percent
Anderson on Sunday expertly played himself out of the most toxic, least functional organization in the NFL, publicly humiliating interim head coach Steve Wilks and making the Panthers deal him to the Cardinals.
Arizona’s offense — the leading cause of depression in the United States — lost its main (only) downfield threat when Marquise Brown went down in Week 6 with what could be a season-ending foot injury. At best, we can expect Brown to miss much of the next couple months. Brown had almost 40 percent of the team’s air yards, the fifth-highest air yards rate among all NFL receivers. Zach Ertz is second on the Cards with a 20 percent air yards share.
What I’m saying is that Anderson will step into the Hollywood Brown role while Ertz and DeAndre Hopkins — who’s due back in Week 7 — eat up the underneath and intermediate stuff. Before Anderson succumbed to the horrors of the current Carolina offense, he was a highly-effective deep threat. He flashed that ability in Week 1 against the Browns when he caught five balls for 102 yards and a touchdown, with 43 percent of the Panthers’ air yards. Since then, not so much.
Anderson isn’t falling into an ideal situation by even the loosest definition. Kyler Murray, as Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar pointed out, is the worst downfield thrower in the NFL this season. Murray has by far the lowest expected points added on attempts of more than ten yards. That shouldn’t obscure Murray’s willingness to let it rip when targeting Brown down the field over the season’s first six weeks. No one has more targets (14) of over 20 yards than Hollywood. Anderson, with a full route complement, should be a WR3 play with the weekly upside that comes with splash plays.
Parris Campbell
Rosterhip: 2 percent
It wasn’t a lack of pass routes holding back Campbell in the Indianapolis offense. He trailed only Michael Pittman among Indy pass catchers with a 79 percent route rate coming into Week 6, when Campbell posted a 100 percent route rate and caught seven of 11 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. It was quite the shock for a player who over the season’s first five weeks had a paltry 9 percent target per route run rate.
Campbell’s 4.4 average depth of target against the Jaguars was typical of the slot receiver’s short-area receiving profile. If the Colts stick to the aforementioned (see the QB section of this column) quick-hitting, pass-first offense, it could open up a good number of weekly targets for Campbell (and Pittman and the team’s running backs). Campbell would be interesting in PPR formats in a Colts offense that continues operating the way it did in Week 6.
Alec Pierce (IND)
Rostership: 39 percent
An Indianapolis offense centered on getting the ball out as quickly as humanly possible won’t be a great development for the rookie Pierce, who leads the Colts with an 11.2 aDOT and has the team’s highest air yards per route run. Still, he went for 49 yards and a score on seven targets in Week 6 against Jacksonville.
Pierce’s routes remain shaky. He ran a route on just 70 percent of Matt Ryan‘s Week 6 dropbacks; that’s not the typical route participation of a 12-team fantasy starter. That’s why, as strange as this would have sounded a week ago, Campbell might be the superior pick-up. Pierce’s weekly range of outcomes certainly includes a higher ceiling than Campbell, however.
Other receivers to roster
Rondale Moore (46 percent): I’m putting Moore below the fold, per se, because he’s likely rostered in so-called serious leagues. If he’s still out there in PPR formats, he needs to be rostered posthaste. He has a 100 percent route rate over the past two weeks; most importantly, he’s running about 83 percent of his routes from the slot. Moore has 13 catches on 17 targets for 117 yards in those two outings. The loss of Marquise Brown could offset the return of DeAndre Hopkins so that Moore continues working as the Cards’ No. 2 pass catcher.
Chase Claypool (41 percent): It’s not easy to get psyched about Claypool. His 7/96/1 Week 6 line against the Bucs does nothing for me. Claypool entered the game dead last on the Steelers with a 16 percent target per route run rate. That jumped to 22.5 percent against Tampa. Mitch Trubisky back in the saddle likely means no pass catcher outside Diontae Johnson will hold much fantasy relevance in Pittsburgh.
Demarcus Robinson (0 percent): Robinson in Week 6 against the Giants had a 77 percent route rate and led all Baltimore wideouts with five targets. He remains the team’s No. 3 pass catching option, and only as long as Rashod Bateman is out with his foot injury.
Marquez Callaway (2 percent): Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are expected to miss the Saints’ Week 7 Thursday nighter against Arizona. Chris Olave (concussion) should be back barring a setback in practice. Callaway, who led the Saints with a 25 percent target share (seven targets) last week against the Bengals, will probably be a full-time player alongside Olave in Week 7. Callaway is a desperation option, naturally.
Tight End
Cade Otton (TB)
Rostership: 6 percent
Cameron Brate was stretchered off the field Sunday against the Steelers after a horrifying blow to the head — Brate’s second head injury of the past three weeks (Brate’s neck was reportedly not broken). We can expect him to recover for a while.
Otton stepped in — as he did in Week 5 against Atlanta — as Tamp’s full-time route running, pass catching tight end with Brate sidelined. Otton, a rookie, was targeted on three of his 17 pass routes against Pittsburgh. The majorly pass-heavy nature of the Bucs offense means Otton will be among the league leaders in pass routes for as long as Brate is sidelined. That Otton isn’t terribly efficient (he had a yards per route run of just 0.93 in Week 5) doesn’t matter a whole lot. I would play him over Kyle Pitts if Brate is out next week. A 12-15 percent target share in an offense that throws it 40-45 times is preferable to a 22-25 percent target share in an offense that throws it 20 times. I don’t really care that Pitts is good, and neither does Arthur Smith.
Greg Dulcich (DEN)
Rostership: 2 percent
The rookie finally, at long last, came back from his severe hamstring injury and immediately became Denver’s No. 1 tight end. Albert O was a healthy scratch for Monday Night Football against the Chargers, the Broncos rolled, with three tight ends, and Dulcich saw a gaudy 79.5 percent route share and turned three targets into two grabs for 44 yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, the other two Denver tight ends combined for a 17.7 percent target share and combined for a single target. It’s Dulcich’s job. He’s the captain now. Things of that nature. Dulcich should be a priority waiver pick-up this week. Fantasy managers in tight end premium leagues should consider going all in to acquire Dulcich, who in his final two collegiate seasons recorded a monstrous (for a tight end) 31 percent yardage share and a 26 percent touchdown share, operating as a downfield weapon at UCLA with a 13.4 average depth of target.
Hunter Henry (NE)
Rostership: 36 percent
I guess this Henry thing is happening. The lumbering veteran has proven a favorite target for Bailey Zappe, who’s probably better than Mac Jones and should remain New England’s starter (he won’t). Henry has 16 targets over Zappe’s three games in the Patriots’ low-volume passing offense, including seven in Week 6 against the Browns, when Henry had an 80 percent route participation rate. Henry on Sunday told reporters that he only recently felt comfortable with a surgically repaired shoulder that had bothered him in the summer and the early part of the regular season.
Jonnu Smith remains banged up. He’s dealing with an ankle issue that kept him sidelined for two games, then limited him to a 42 percent snap rate against Cleveland. Jonnu ran a mere eight routes against the Browns. For as long as Jonnu is relegated to two-tight end sets and used as a blocker, while Henry is the primary (only) route-running New England tight end, he’s worth deploying in 12-team formats.
Daniel Bellinger (NYG)
Rostership: 2 percent
Bellinger in Week 6 saw a season-high route rate (80 percent) and caught all five of his targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. Tanner Hudson, who had for some reason taken over as New York’s third down tight end, ceded those third-down snaps and routes to Bellinger against the Ravens.
That should give Bellinger the opportunity of a fantasy starter — if this situation holds. He could fall into a good number of weekly targets in a stunningly efficient Giants passing offense that ranks 12th in EPA per drop back.
Juwan Johnson (NO)
Rostership: 1 percent
I’m once again touting Juwan Johnson and there’s nothing you can do about it. Look, this time it’s different: Taysom Hill isn’t really running routes as a “tight end” and Adam Trautman down with an ankle injury, all the tight end route running now belongs to Johnson. In Week 6, Johnson had a 77.4 percent route rate and caught all four of his targets for 41 yards against the Bengals. The massive tight end’s 10.1 average depth of target — the sixth highest among tight ends — suggests he has some big play upside if he slots in as the Saints’ TE1.
If Trautman misses Thursday night’s game against Arizona, Johnson will have a plus matchup against a Cardinals defense giving up the most tight end receptions (45) this season.
Robert Tonyan (GB)
Rostership: 42 percent
The Big Bob truthers were seen rioting in the streets after he went for 90 yards on ten catches in Week 6 against the Jets. In all their unbridled glee, these Tonyanites did not consider that the Packers were missing three of their top five wideouts and were trapped in a pass-heavy game script as they tried to claw back against the world-beating J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
Tonyan’s Week 6 route participation was far higher than it had been coming into the week: He ran a route on 76 percent of the Packers’ dropbacks, up from around 50 percent over the past month. Green Bay used a ton of 11 personnel in negative game script, which fueled Tonyan’s snaps and routes. This is certainly not the way the Packers want to play. This kind of volume won’t be there for Tonyan unless the Packers get trampled every week for the rest of the season, making him a tight end — like almost every other tight end — who will be reliant on touchdowns. You could do worse in 12-team leagues though.
Other tight ends to roster
Mike Gesicki (24 percent): Don’t be fooled by Gesicki’s massive Week 6 game against the Vikings. Everything aligned — including the planets — for Gesicki to come through for two touchdowns on six receptions. He had a meager 16.3 percent target share and saw an increase in pass routes only because Durham Smythe was out with a hamstring injury. Smythe will likely be back in Week 7. Gesicki, who had a 52 percent route participation rate coming into Week 6, is little more than a deep league dart throw in that case.
Irv Smith (59 percent): Smith over the past three weeks has had the profile of a top-12 tight end, running routes at a good clip and serving as the No. 3 option in Minnesota’s passing offense. Against Miami in Week 6, Smith caught all four of his targets for seven yards and a touchdown, running a route on 65 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Johnny Mundt‘s route rate was down to 24.2 percent. Smith now has at least four targets in each of his past five outings. You could do worse when the Vikings return from their Week 7 bye.
Cole Kmet (31 percent): No. Absolutely not. Hear me out: No. OK, maybe. If you’re in a 16-team league and there are no other tight ends on the wire.
Kicker
Jason Sanders (MIA)
Rostership: 8 percent
Sanders has been downright bad through six weeks. He’s missed three of his ten field goal tries and a couple extra points. We don’t care about any of that. We pray at the altar of process, and Sanders fits the process well in Week 6, as the Dolphins are seven-point home favorites against the Steelers.
Only five teams have allowed more field goal attempts than the Steelers (13) through Week 6. That’s a product of Pittsburgh being bad and their opponents enjoying lots of neutral and positive script. With Tua expected back from his brain injury this week, Sanders profiles as a solid fantasy option.
Chase McLaughlin (IND)
Rosterhip: 11 percent
McLaughlin, quietly — too quietly, some are saying — has logged multiple field goal tries in each of his four games with the Colts and has posted top-10 kicker numbers since joining the team in Week 2. McLaughlin has made six field goals over his past two outings. That’s not a little. It’s actually a lot.
By touting McLaughlin, I have betrayed a basic tenet of kicker streaming. The Colts are two-point underdogs this week against the Titans, and we almost always want kickers on teams that are favored. Nevertheless, we persist. The waiver wire is barren of good kicker plays this week and I have a sneaking suspicion the Colts can hang in there with the Titans in what is sure to be an epic Mid Off.