Waiver Wire Week 2: The Book of Eli (Mitchell)

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of Waiver Wired for the 2020 season. With numerous injury fallouts, personnel shakeups, and a number of players to fight for in the first real week of free agent bidding, it would be a disservice to waste time on a lede.

As a refresher, The Drop List consists of players who are rostered in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and are no longer must-have assets, recommended additions are available in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the Watch List contains in-depth notes on fringe waiver adds, and Deep Cuts includes player notes on those rostered in five percent or fewer of Yahoo leagues.

The Drop List

QB: –

RB: Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Ronald Jones

WR: –

TE: Mike Gesicki, Austin Hooper

With only one week of games under our belts, there’s really no need to force anyone off your roster unless space is needed. An argument can even be made to keep Moss (direct backup) or RoJo (a Leonard Fournette-injury away from having early downs to himself) if necessary. Gesicki is slightly different since his peripherals changed overnight. He ran a route on 60% of Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks on Sunday when that number was 70% last year; played 39% of the snaps in Week 1 when he was in on at least 58% with Miami the past two seasons; and accrued just two targets with Will Fuller returning this upcoming week. I would play any of the tight ends listed below over Gesicki in Week 2.

Overall Top 5

1. Rondale Moore
2. Elijah Mitchell
3. Sterling Shepard
4. K.J. Hamler
5. James White

High-Stakes Top 5

1. Elijah Mitchell
2. Cedric Wilson
3. Kenneth Gainwell
4. Tim Patrick
5. David Njoku

For those looking to roster the best available player(s) regardless of position, the rankings above take into account every factor from the positional lists minus players’ actual positions for both recreational and high-stakes (FFPC, NFFC, etc.) formats, the latter which have far fewer viable players available with every passing week. These are listed in the precise order I would prioritize waiver claims in those leagues ahead of Week 2. Adjust accordingly for what you need on your roster — touches, high-upside bench stashes, targets, one-week spot-starters, etc.

Contingency Top 10

1. Chuba Hubbard
2. Alexander Mattison
3. Damien Williams
4. Tony Jones
5. Rhamondre Stevenson
6. Larry Rountree
7. Darrel Williams
8. Samaje Perine
9. Alex Collins
10. Boston Scott

For those looking to stash the best available backup(s) with minimum standalone value, the rankings above were designed to help prioritize direct backups in the event a player in front of them were absent. These are listed in the precise order I would stash them ahead of Week 2. Presumed targets, touches, environment, remaining schedule, etc. are included in the process.

Quarterbacks

1. Jameis Winston
2. Sam Darnold
3. Teddy Bridgewater
4. Mac Jones

Running Backs

1. Elijah Mitchell
2. James White
3. Kenneth Gainwell
4. Giovani Bernard
5. Damien Williams
6. Tony Jones

Wide Receivers

Cole Beasley rostered in 45 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 add in PPR leagues if available.

Darnell Mooney rostered in 48 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 add in standard leagues if available.

1. Rondale Moore
2. Sterling Shepard
3. K.J. Hamler
4. Cedrick Wilson
5. Christian Kirk
6. Terrace Marshall
7. Elijah Moore
8. Nelson Agholor
9. Tim Patrick
10. Zach Pascal

Tight Ends

1. Cole Kmet
2. Jared Cook
3. Adam Trautman
4. David Njoku

Defense/Special Teams

Cleveland Browns rostered in 68 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 D/ST add if available.

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. New York Giants
4. Cincinnati Bengals

Kickers

Coming soon…

QUARTERBACKS

1. Jameis Winston, Saints — Rostered in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 2-4% FAAB Bid)

Coach Sean Payton reeled in Winston for at least one week, convincing him to keep his turnover-prone bombs to a minimum (two attempts 20-plus yards deep) while hanging in the pocket and completing 3-of-5 passes for two touchdowns under duress. A competitive game script will eventually show Winston’s true colors as the team’s starter, naturally increasing his (efficient) 20 passes and ceiling from Week 1.

2. Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos — Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo Leagues (2-4%)

Bridgewater checked in third among all quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades on Sunday, showing unusual aggressiveness with six attempts 20-plus yards downfield. With the Jaguars having allowed 75 plays and the fourth-most yards (449) to a putrid Texans offense, Bridgewater and Denver’s offense are a tremendous bet to ensure this matchup exceeds its 45.5 total.

3. Sam Darnold, Panthers — Rostered in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)

Darnold passed his first test in a post-Adam Gase life with aplomb, completing 6-of-11 passes for 9.5 yards per attempt when under pressure and a sterling 75% (18-of-24) of his throws when kept clean. New Orleans’ cluster of positive tests on the sidelines could also throw the team’s game-planning against Darnold for a loop.

4. Mac Jones, Patriots — Rostered in 26 percent of Yahoo Leagues (2-4%)

The Jets accumulated the seventh-lowest sack rate opposite Darnold in Week 1, offering little pushback both from the trenches and in coverage while allowing 8.0 YPA through the air. Any quarterback is a viable streamer against New York until we can name at least two players in their secondary.

Watch List: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke

RUNNING BACKS

1. Elijah Mitchell, 49ers — Rostered in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 40-45% FAAB Bid)

Mitchell was reportedly active over Trey Sermon to play on special teams but, just two carries later, found himself rushing for 19/104/1 on 83% of San Francisco’s backfield touches, the highest single-game touch share of any back for the Niners dating back to last year. Sermon will be active in Week 2 — as will JaMycal Hasty — out of necessity, but Mitchell’s performance could very well keep him on a pedestal above both until Jeff Wilson (knee) returns from injury. Realistically, managers are bidding for the No.1 back in a timeshare among San Francisco’s options, hoping for a handful of spike weeks in friendly matchups against the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, Colts, and Bears through Week 10. But that role is exactly what everyone thought they were drafting in the fifth- (Mostert), sixth- (Sermon), and 13th-rounds (Gallman) over the summer. What’s a few hundred FAAB more to right the ship, especially since we know the one we’re vying for will be active on special teams even when Wilson is healthy?

More importantly, Mitchell’s treatment on Sunday is evidence of a scenario that didn’t exist before: workhorse usage under Kyle Shanahan, with only an undrafted free agent and individual who was most recently healthy-scratched standing in his path. Unfortunately, the reasons above are also why a ‘conservative’ 35% bid probably won’t cement Mitchell onto your roster, especially after Mostert was ruled out for the year. An aggressive number and diamond hands, however, could result in starting a league-winner both in the interim and down the stretch given the 23-year-old’s proven range of outcomes. I would drop any of the running backs listed below for Mitchell in shallower leagues.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues

2. James White, Patriots – Rostered in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues (15-20%)

White returned to a vintage role without a mobile quarterback under center, earning an 18.4% target share with seven opportunities through the air. New England also encouragingly finished with the eighth-most plays (75) run in Week 1, entailing a higher ceiling for White than perceived as long as the Patriots continue playing with an uptempo pace moving forward.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team PPR leagues

3. Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles – Rostered in 9 percent of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)

Boston Scott reportedly had just two fewer catches (28-26) than Miles Sanders throughout camp but, when push came to shove, it was Gainwell who was used as the latter’s direct backup, finishing as the only other runner to handle any amount of carries (9) or targets (3) behind Sanders. Given Jalen Hurts’ league-low 3.6-yard depth of target under Nick Sirianni, Gainwell will undoubtedly keep involved via screens and underneath routes as a potential matchup-based option with standalone PPR value.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues

4. Giovani Bernard, Buccaneers – Rostered in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)

Assuming Bernard’s ankle is what limited him to 17 snaps in a favorable 31-29 game script against the Cowboys Thursday night, there’s no need to panic and drop (or shy away from) him just yet given the ongoing situations with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If Jones is eventually benched against the Falcons, there’s still a chance Bernard handles a larger workload if healthy.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues

5. Damien Williams, Bears – Rostered in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)

For as spry as David Montgomery played on Sunday night, Damien Williams still cut into the receiving role that the former had without Tarik Cohen (ACL) last year, matching D-Mont in routes (20) while seeing five of the team’s six backfield targets. Williams’ 10 touches behind Montgomery’s 17 was genuinely the best-case scenario for anyone that had already spent a late-round selection on him in drafts.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues

6. Tony Jones, Saints – Rostered in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)

Eight of Jones’ 12 touches occurred with the Saints still padding a 10-0 lead in the first half, suggesting he’ll be more involved than expected behind Alvin Kamara in weekly game plans.

Recommendation: Both should be rostered in 12-team leagues until roles are made clear

Watch List: Kyle Shanahan has only ever used JaMycal Hasty when absolutely necessary, which is suddenly one more injury away from occurring. He’s worth a sprinkle on waivers ahead of Week 2 in case either Trey Sermon or Eli Mitchell go down…There is no easier player to let ride the wire than Mark Ingram, who handled 26 carries on 46% of Houston’s snaps in an overtly positive game script for a majority of play. It would not be shocking if that were the only time Houston had a lead at any point this year…Cordarrelle Patterson was used intricately before the Falcons fell apart in the second half, soaking up 16 snaps from the backfield, three as a tight end, three out wide, and two from the slot. He’s an interesting player to monitor on Yahoo given his multi-position eligibility as a RB/WR there…As expected, Urban Meyer went full donkey and deployed Carlos Hyde for 11-of-19 backfield touches over James Robinson. The latter’s saving grace is the six targets he stacked on 36 routes during Trevor Lawrence‘s 56 dropbacks. You’re obviously holding Robinson long-term, but he’s essentially become Damien Williams due to his coaching staff overnight.

Deep Cuts: With Raheem Mostert (knee surgery) out for the year, Jeff Wilson should be valued slightly higher than Hasty since the former could easily return and split time with Mitchell the moment he’s active. I would shed a handful of players already on IR — Rashod Bateman, T.Y. Hilton — for Wilson with the belief he provides more value than that ailing crop…Larry Rountree was the direct backup to Austin Ekeler on Sunday, out-touching Justin Jackson 8-2 in that role. Bid accordingly.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Rondale Moore, Cardinals – Rostered in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 15-20% FAAB Bid)

Moore finished fourth among Arizona’s receivers in routes (14) on Sunday but still unsurprisingly out-performed A.J. Green across the board on one fewer target (6-5). The 33-year-old’s peripherals — second on the team in routes (32) and targets (6) — are a moot point, as they were last year. The difference is Larry Fitzgerald was a legacy player who couldn’t be benched, whereas Green is worse for wear with both Christian Kirk (see below) and Moore lurking. This is a bet that the rookie will eventually earn a larger role in one of the league’s most explosive offenses all the while staying a usable WR4/5 with upside in the short-term.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues

2. Sterling Shepard, Giants – Rostered in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)

Shepard was dumbfoundedly kicked out wide for a career-high 67% of his routes last year but moved back into the slot (65%) full-time in Week 1, accruing five of his team-high nine targets from the middle of the field. There is no safer bet than the Giants’ offense having to consistently throw from behind throughout the year, giving Shepard a perpetually high floor weekly.

Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team PPR leagues

3. K.J. Hamler, Broncos – Rostered in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)

Oddly enough, Jerry Jeudy (ankle) had run 18 of his 23 routes from the slot prior to injury whereas he ran nearly 70% of his routes from the boundary last year. That leaves Hamler as the 22-year-old’s logical fill-in given his team-high in routes from the middle of the field last season. Reminder Hamler spiked three top-42 finishes (and one top-eight) across 13 games between injuries last year, and would have had another had he not egregiously dropped Teddy Bridgewater’s 50-yard dime in the third quarter. There are better days ahead.