One year removed from an anomaly offseason that failed to hold any amount of training camp or preseason games, the Week 1 edition of Waiver Wired returns with a revamped format for the 2021 season. The vigorous news cycle and cutdowns we experienced this summer created chaos for roster percentages across formats, but we’ll diligently sift through every option to ensure fantasy players are covered across the board for every league ranging from 16-round re-drafts to 20-round startups ahead of the regular-season opener.
As a refresher, The Drop List consists of players who are rostered in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and are no longer must-have assets, recommended additions are available in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the Watch List contains in-depth notes on fringe waiver adds, and Deep Cuts includes player notes on those rostered in five percent or fewer of Yahoo and FFPC leagues.
The Drop List
The drop list will return with suggested releases at every position following Week 1. If your league runs waivers prior to kick-off on Thursday, now is the time to shed those unsuccessful Hail Marys for the best available starting kicker and D/ST options to open the year (assuming your fliers were occupying those spots to begin with).
It should go without saying, but also part ways with (in order) players who will miss the year, secondary tight ends, defenses, then kickers in standard leagues. Those rosters slots are much better occupied by an upside/backup running back or receiver, especially early on.
Overall Top 5
1. Rondale Moore
2. Elijah Moore
3. Ty’Son Williams
4. Terrace Marshall
5. Giovani Bernard
High-Stakes Top 5
1. Sony Michel
2. Ty’Son Williams
3. Marquez Callaway
4. Boston Scott
5. Ty Johnson
For those looking to roster the best available player(s) regardless of position, the rankings above take into account every factor from the positional lists minus players’ actual positions for both recreational and high-stakes (FFPC, NFFC, etc.) formats, the latter which have been taking place over the last few months with no waivers period to date. These are listed in the precise order I would prioritize waiver claims in those leagues in Week 1. Adjust accordingly for what you need on your roster — touches, high-upside bench stashes, targets, one-week spot-starters, etc.
For what it’s worth, this is the largest discrepancy I can recall between the talent available on Yahoo and high-stakes formats to begin the year. A handful of names (Michel, Callaway) have obviously fallen by the wayside in FFPC solely because Main Events have been running since June, whereas most Yahoo managers weren’t on the clock until the Michel deal had already been finalized. I would imagine the two lists veer closer to mirroring one another in Week 2. Michel and Williams should still be prioritized over Callaway on platforms outside of Yahoo since running backs normally come at a premium there.
Contingency Top 10
1. Chuba Hubbard
2. Alexander Mattison
3. Latavius Murray
4. Rashaad Penny
5. Damien Williams
6. Rhamondre Stevenson
7. Darrel Williams
8. Devontae Booker
9. Boston Scott
10. Samaje Perine
For those looking to stash the best available backup(s) with minimum standalone value, the rankings above were designed to help prioritize direct backups in the event a player in front of them were absent. These are listed in the precise order I would stash them ahead of Week 1. Presumed targets, touches, environment, remaining schedule, etc. are included in the process.
Quarterbacks
1. Sam Darnold
2. Zach Wilson
3. Jameis Winston
Running Backs
Sony Michel rostered in 72 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 add if available.
1. Ty’Son Williams
2. James White
3. Giovani Bernard
4. Damien Williams
5. J.D. McKissic
6. Ty Johnson
7. Tevin Coleman
Wide Receivers
1. Rondale Moore
2. Elijah Moore
3. Terrace Marshall
4. Parris Campbell
5. Tre’Quan Smith
Tight Ends
1. Zach Ertz
2. Austin Hooper
3. Cole Kmet
4. Anthony Firkser
5. Tyler Kroft
Defense/Special Teams
1. Carolina Panthers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickers
1. Greg Joseph
2. Matt Prater
3. Brandon McManus
4. Ryan Santoso
QUARTERBACKS
1. Sam Darnold, Panthers — Rostered in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 5% FAAB Bid)
D.J. Moore was being drafted in the fourth round throughout the summer; Robby Anderson at the 6th/7th-round turn; Terrace Marshall surged into the mid-12th following a preseason explosion; even Dan Arnold creeped into the last three rounds of Main Events. But Darnold, slated to oppose a Jets defense sans stud EDGE Carl Lawson (Achilles’) in Week 1, has incredulously gone undrafted at times. Something’s obviously off. Buying into Darnold’s fresh start in this soft matchup additionally allows managers to reap the ensuing rewards against New Orleans, Houston, and Dallas in the Panthers’ next three games.
2. Zach Wilson, Jets — Rostered in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
There’s some slight concern here since the Panthers have sneakily pieced together a stars and scrubs unit involving a fearsome pass rusher (Brian Burns), run-plugging defensive tackle (Derrick Brown), lockdown corner (Jaycee Horn), and sideline-to-sideline safety (Jeremy Chinn). Fortunately, Wilson responds with surprising rushing upside after averaging seven carries in 30 career starts at BYU. Those perceived points on the ground alone are enough to keep the rookie as the safer play over Jameis Winston.
3. James Winston, Saints — Rostered in 43 percent of Yahoo Leagues (1-2%)
It’s not so much a question of if Taysom Hill will replace Winston, but when and where on the field he’ll do so. Any involvement inside the red zone would obviously limit the latter’s touchdown upside, which defeats the purpose of streaming him to begin with. Even so, Winston’s efficiency is a safer bet than Mac Jones, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, or other fringe QB2s universally available.
Watch List: Perhaps I’m giving Los Angeles’ defense too much credit against Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin and Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially since the Chargers are traveling coast-to-coast for a 9a body-clock kick-off. Unfortunately, Washington’s Week 2 divisional matchup against the Giants isn’t an ideal spot either…Trey Lance (finger) had the splint on his throwing thumb removed but has yet to take snaps in practice. The injury makes no difference since you’ve obviously stashed him for the long-haul if drafting him at any point this summer.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Ty’Son Williams, Ravens — Rostered in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 20-30% FAAB Bid)
Scour the options below, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find another available runner with a definitive 1B role like Williams has stumbled into following season-ending injuries to both J.K. Dobbins (Achilles’) and Justice Hill (Achilles’). The former’s ceiling is truly in question (as is Gus Edwards’) since Lamar Jackson has ignored this team’s backfield for the NFL’s third- and fourth-fewest targets the past two years, but Baltimore’s league-high run play rate in neutral game script in back-to-back seasons ensures Williams a prominent gig as one of only two available backs on the active roster. Any amount of catches are ideal but not mandatory. It’s not the worst idea to bump your FAAB allotment closer to 30% if Michel isn’t available, since Williams would then be the cream of the crop by default.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
2. James White, Patriots – Rostered in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues (15-18%)
White averaged nearly two fewer targets per game in 2020 (4.4) compared to the previous year (6.3) but finished with an identical 18% target share in both; the difference being New England’s 979 plays run (29th) last year compared to 1,095 (3rd) in 2019. Any projection for White, an inarguable beneficiary in any life without a dual-threat quarterback, should include both a bounce-back and higher ceiling than perceived since the Patriots quietly ranked first in pace and no-huddle rate during neutral situations over the last three weeks of the season (per Establish The Run’s Pat Thorman).
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team PPR leagues
3. Giovani Bernard, Buccaneers – Rostered in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)
Whether it was Tom Brady (24 snaps) or Blaine Gabbert (12) running the first-team offense this preseason, Bernard was on the field for every 3rd down snap (8) with them. He enters Thursday night as the only Bucs running back with a defined role as Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones continue cannibalizing one another on early downs. Any number of carries for Bernard would arguably make him more valuable than either as Tampa Bay’s version of James White.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues
4. Damien Williams, Bears – Rostered in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
Bears GM Ryan Pace said he “does not want to get into specifics” when asked a yes/no question on whether RB Tarik Cohen (torn ACL) had a second surgery, which answered the question in a roundabout way, anyhow. Managers will know in Week 1 whether Williams is merely insurance behind David Montgomery or if the latter is stripped of the 28 routes per game that helped propel him to RB1 status in Chicago’s last six contests, gifting Williams a pass-catching floor instead.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
5. J.D. McKissic, Washington – Rostered in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues (3-5%)
McKissic’s absurd 110 targets and 23.4% target share can be attributed to Alex Smith’s propensity to throw behind the line of scrimmage at the league’s highest rate and the former’s bound-to-regress margin in 3rd down snaps over Antonio Gibson (197 to 22) last year. McKissic was on the field for every 3rd-down pass with the first-team offense during the preseason, though, burying any notion he’ll be left behind in OC Scott Turner’s offense altogether. I question the 28-year-old’s upside even if Gibson were to miss time since the entire coaching staff remains high on UDFA Jaret Patterson.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team PPR leagues
6. Ty Johnson, Jets – Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues (3-5%)
7. Tevin Coleman, Jets – Rostered in 22 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
Early indications are that we incorrectly envisioned Michael Carter as an eventual three-down option, seeing him lose first-team snaps to Ty Johnson in both Week 1 (13 to 9) and Week 3 (14 to 12) this summer. In fact, in the lone game Coleman was active for, Carter wasn’t even allotted a single first-string rep with Zach Wilson on the field. Johnson sits slightly ahead of Coleman since the former out-snapped Carter on 3rd down (4 to 1) in Week 1, whereas we have no inkling of evidence Coleman would be treated similarly on passing downs if Johnson were ever out. It will obviously take a bid of 10-20% to corral Johnson in any high-stakes format since that’s where running backs are treasured.
Recommendation: Both should be rostered in 12-team leagues until roles are made clear
Watch List: Devontae Booker
Deep Cuts:
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Rondale Moore, Cardinals – Rostered in 22 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 15-20% FAAB Bid)
Anyone who slanders Moore for his pygmy 5’7 height clearly hasn’t done their homework. Only an Avenger could squat 600 pounds despite weighing 174, or check in with the nation’s highest SPARQ rating during his recruitment process. Whether it was intentful or a mishap, Moore’s preseason usage with nine targets (and three carries) underneath from the slot (94%) is exactly where he’ll thrive in Arizona’s horizontal raid after compiling 71% of his collegiate receiving yardage after the catch. Even if you’re skeptical of his immediate FLEX value as the Cardinals’ version of Deebo Samuel, Sunday’s brake-less opener against Tennessee’s secondary is arguably the last time to roster the 21-year-old for cheap.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
2. Elijah Moore, Jets – Rostered in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues (12-15%)
Moore’s (quad) absence throughout the preseason caused his ADP to plummet into the 11th-round in high-stakes leagues and, as listed above, go undrafted in a majority of Yahoo leagues to date. Jamison Crowder’s (COVID) pending status should right that ship as Moore would not only be glued to the slot as a full-time player if the former is ruled out but potentially be entitled to reps from the boundary, which he had been competing with Keelan Cole for (on top of slot duties) prior to injury. Note that this total between the Jets and Panthers has already increased from 43 to 45 ahead of Sunday.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Terrace Marshall, Panthers – Rostered in 19 percent of Yahoo leagues (12-15%)
He did so without Robby Anderson (hamstring) for a majority of camp, but Marshall closed the preseason with the league’s second-most receiving yards, cementing Carolina’s starting slot role from 11 personnel while averaging 27 yards per catch on two targets (and 15 routes) from the boundary. Given his success from any alignment at LSU, Marshall logically offers standalone FLEX value in place of Ian Thomas, waiting in the wings as a one-for-one replacement-WR2 if either D.J. Moore or Anderson were to miss time.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Parris Campbell, Colts – Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
Campbell recorded 6/71 on nine targets in last year’s season opener and averaged six targets in his only three starts in 2019. With T.Y. Hilton (neck, IR) out of the picture for the month, Campbell’s nine appearances the past two years remain more of a concern than his voluminous slot role.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
5. Tre’Quan Smith, Saints – Rostered in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
With two catches per game across 40 career appearances, Smith unsurprisingly got lost in the shuffle once Marquez Callaway burst onto the scene. There’s still an outcome in Smith’s outlook that’s being completely ignored since, in being sidelined with a leg injury throughout the preseason, he has yet to play with an attacking quarterback like Jameis Winston. Too often the unknown is seen as a negative, but that’s not always the case.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
Watch List: Nelson Agholor, Jalen Reagor/Quez Watkins, Bryan Edwards/Hunter Renfrow
Deep Leagues: K.J. Hamler, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins
TIGHT ENDS
1. Zach Ertz, Eagles — Rostered in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 10-12% FAAB Bid)
Ertz’s ceiling as a pontoon boat anchored in Philadelphia is being vastly overstated since he’s finished as the TE12 and TE27 in fantasy points per game the past two years. Dallas Goedert even out-scored him on a single catch during the preseason. But Ertz’s opportunity following a training camp in which he finished with the second-most targets on the team isn’t in doubt. Fingers crossed this total between the Eagles and Falcons (48) is as off as it appears at face value.
2. Austin Hooper, Browns — Rostered in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues (4-6%)
Chiefs return largely the same linebacking group that permitted the third-most receptions to opposing tight ends last year. Hooper ranked second on the team in catches (46) with a 19% target share in the six games he played alongside Odell Beckham.
3. Cole Kmet, Bears — Rostered in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
Kmet played 85% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in its last seven games including 84% during Mitch Trubisky’s postseason NVP performance. Unfortunately, 34-year-old Jimmy Graham’s presence is still a short-term concern since the veteran (somehow) survived final cuts after being trotted out for Kmet inside the red zone last year. The sophomore should still be prioritized over Hooper if eyeing a long-term replacement over a one-week fill-in.
4. Anthony Firkser, Titans — Rostered in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
Firkser didn’t play at all in two-tight end sets over the first two preseason games, only doing so in the third game when Tommy Hudson missed a few snaps in the first quarter; Firkser was promptly moved back to 3rd downs when Hudson returned. Having lined up either from the slot or out wide on 12-of-19 preseason snaps with the first-team offense, Firkser’s role exclusively on passing downs (albeit limited) is one he could easily leverage opposite Tennessee’s opening schedule against the Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts, Jets, Jaguars, Bills, and Chiefs. He’s a bet-on-environment option if chasing a ceiling, rather than snaps, is preferred. Move Tyler Kroft (see below) up a spot if the latter category is an easier pill to swallow.
5. Tyler Kroft, Jets — Rostered in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
No summer would be complete without touting an unathletic tight end available in the last round. Fortunately for us, Kroft has arrived just in time to save the season. The 28-year-old remains three years removed from relevancy, totaling 22 catches across 26 of a possible 48 games the past three years. Put your (completely justified) biases aside however and you don’t have to squint to see eye-to-eye with OC Mike LaFleur’s vision of treating Kroft as the team’s H-back after he finished the preseason second in targets from Zach Wilson. At worst, Kroft will arguably out-snap any tight end on the wire. He’s best fought for in TE-Premium formats.
Watch List: Tyler Conklin, Donald Parham
Deep Leagues:
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Carolina Panthers – Rostered in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues
2. Minnesota Vikings – Rostered in 24 percent of Yahoo leagues
3. Seattle Seahawks – Rostered in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Rostered in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Urban Meyer screws this up. Famous last words.
Watch List:
KICKERS
Only a fool wouldn’t pass the ball to Michael Jordan in his prime, so it only makes sense that I pull each week’s kicker streamers from Denny Carter’s column and #adjust them accordingly. For in-depth analysis, you can read the entire piece here:
1. Greg Joseph, Vikings – Rostered in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
2. Matt Prater, Cardinals – Rostered in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
3. Brandon McManus, Broncos – Rostered in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
4. Ryan Santoso, Panthers – Rostered in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues