Chaos has come to the SEC.
By the time this season is done, the wild revelry that consumed Knoxville last Saturday night might look less like a once-in-a-generation celebration and more like the start of a conference-redefining upheaval.
Not so long ago — like, six weeks — Alabama and Georgia were the twin titans of the SEC, and everybody else was fighting for the bronze medal. Go ahead and Sharpie the Tide and the Dawgs into the College Football Playoff and sort out the other details later.
Funny the difference a nuclear-powered Volunteer offense can make. Tennessee has thundered into the SEC conversation, upending conventional wisdom along with Alabama. And suddenly, everything that looked so settled before the season kicked off now looks a whole lot more uncertain.
The stakes are simple: the winner of the SEC gets a ticket to the College Football Playoff, guaranteed. The winners of the conference’s two divisions meet in December to settle matters on the field in Atlanta. Georgia and Tennessee headline the East division, while Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU top the west. That’s why Alabama’s loss to Tennessee wasn’t fatal; the Tide still have a clear path to the SEC title game, and from there to the playoffs.
Let’s run down where things stand now for each of our challengers:
Alabama: In gut-check mode, now and for the rest of the season. If the Tide want back in the CFP, they’ll basically need to win out. Nobody feels sorry for Alabama, and nobody should, but the Tide still have a murderous gauntlet to run: at home against No. 24 Mississippi State this week, then road games against LSU and No. 7 Ole Miss … plus the ever-unpredictable Iron Bowl.
It’s win-or-go-home from here on out for Alabama.
Tennessee: After a comedown game against UT-Martin this week, the Vols face No. 19 Kentucky before traveling to Athens for No. 1 Georgia. The road stretches wide and flat in front of Tennessee; it’s time for the Vols to mash the gas.
“We are in the early stages,” Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel said Monday. “The urgency and preparation and focus has to remain consistent.”
Georgia: After a season of marshmallow battles, the degree of difficulty is about to ramp up for the Dawgs. So far, Georgia has dispatched Oregon and Auburn, and the pawns of the SEC East exerting a bit more strain than expected. But on the docket are Kentucky and Mississippi State — along with that must-watch Nov. 5 game against Tennessee.
Georgia got bit last year when a soft schedule didn’t prepare it well enough for Alabama in the SEC championship game, although the playoff turned out OK. But a similar stumble this time around, and the playoff might not be an issue.
Ole Miss: Rolling up to the party late and uninvited but carrying a case of beer under each arm, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are lurking right below the edge of the nation’s consciousness. LSU and Texas A&M loom, but the Rebs could be undefeated heading into their Nov. 11 date with Alabama in Oxford. That would be the third stop-everything-and-watch SEC game in a month, the third with championship and playoff implications.
Think about it: we’re only a few dominoes from an Ole Miss-Tennessee SEC championship. Unlikely? Absolutely. Georgia and Alabama are still the Imperial Walkers of the conference, and in all likelihood they’ll stomp out hopes and dreams the way they always do. But then, Alabama was an early two-touchdown favorite in Tennessee, too.
You don’t have to go too far down the realm of message-board speculation to arrive at this scenario: Alabama gets its act together after taking a Knoxville cigar to the face and wins out, reaching the SEC championship as the West’s representative. Tennessee keeps its hot streak going by knocking off Georgia. In its second crack at the Vols, Alabama wins and takes the SEC title.
That leaves you with three elite teams, each with a loss to one of the others. Who goes to the playoff, and who spends New Year’s seething? There’s potentially a path for two: Georgia made it into the playoff last season despite losing the SEC championship, Alabama reached the playoff — and won — in 2017 without reaching the SEC title game. But fighting through some undefeated combination of Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, and even TCU and UCLA, could be a tough ask.
The College Football Playoff committee will release its first rankings the week before Georgia-Tennessee. Buckle up, because it’ll be full throttle from then on into January.
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Contact Jay Busbee at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or on Twitter at @jaybusbee.