What arguably is the biggest MMA event of the year is right around the corner.
UFC 264 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the main event, Dustin Poirier (27-6 MMA, 19-5 UFC) takes on Conor McGregor (22-5 MMA, 10-3 UFC) in a trilogy rubber match. Fans are back, to boot.
And while that fight is getting the lion’s share of attention, there are other key bouts on the card, too. Still, it made us wonder with so much at stake in several divisions, which fighter has the most to lose at UFC 264?
In the latest edition of MMA Junkie’s “Triple Take,” the panel of Matt Erickson, Farah Hannoun and Nolan King (listed alphabetically, not in order of how much we like ’em!) share their insights.
Matt Erickson: Greg Hardy
Greg Hardy
There are higher stakes at UFC 264, to be certain. The main event winner between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor might be next in line for a lightweight title shot. And if two-time welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson wants to find himself back in the conversation for a belt in the next year, he has to beat Gilbert Burns in the co-main event. But the fighter who just may have the most to lose is heavyweight Greg Hardy (7-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC), who takes on Tai Tuivasa (12-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) in a featured bout on the main card. In his three-year MMA career, nearly all of which has been under the bright lights of the UFC or peripheral to it on Dana White’s Contender Series, Hardy never has lost consecutive fights. That’s what he’s staring down the barrel of against Tuivasa. Hardy lost to Marcin Tybura this past December and had a two-fight winning streak snapped. It was the first time he had been knocked out. His other two losses were by DQ against Allen Crowder in his UFC debut and to Alexander Volkov by decision. A loss to Tuivasa, particularly if it’s by stoppage, is going to have a lot of people wondering if all the early hype behind Hardy was for naught. It will mean when examining his wins and losses on paper, the losses will have been to some good to great heavyweight names – and the bulk of the wins have been against fighters who no longer are in the UFC or have merely middling results in the promotion. Hardy’s UFC wins have been against Dmitry Smolyakov (0-3 in the UFC) … Juan Adams (1-3 in the UFC) … Ben Sosoli (overturned to a no contest) … Yorgan de Castro (1-3 in the UFC) … and Maurice Greene (4-4 in the UFC; has lost four of his past five). Only Greene and Sosoli still are part of the UFC roster. Put simply, Hardy has to win against Tuivasa if he wants to keep any kind of relevance at heavyweight, let alone eventually find himself in title consideration. And for the latter, it’ll take a win over someone like Tuivasa as the start of a string of wins against names as big or bigger. So far, Hardy hasn’t proven he can win those kinds of fights. A loss Saturday, and he’ll be in a deep enough hole that the prospect label will be off and the bust label will be on.
Farah Hannoun: Conor McGregor
UFC 264 is a must-win for Conor McGregor for various reasons. McGregor has only one win in almost three years – a quick finish of Donald Cerrone at UFC 246. But it’s been a while since he’s beaten a top contender, and if he wants to stay relevant in the title picture, he has to beat Dustin Poirier. The Poirier trilogy bout is not only about earning a title shot, it’s a gauge of whether McGregor has still got it and is able to compete with the best of the division. “The Notorious” never has lost two straight, and in a legacy-defining matchup like this one, it’s all on the line for him. He was also stopped due to strikes for the first time in his career in January against Poirier, so to get beat at his own game must have been a tough pill to swallow. It’s certainly no shame to lose to someone the caliber of Poirier, but McGregor has been on top of the world for years now, and he absolutely can’t afford to lose to Poirier if he is to remain in the conversation of the sport’s most elite fighters. The good news, though, is that Poirier is the perfect opponent to prove to everyone why money and fame haven’t gotten the best of him and that he’s capable of the same dominance he once had in his incredible featherweight run. He looked good in the rematch before Poirier was able to chop him down with calf kicks, so let’s see if he can make the necessary adjustments to cap off the trilogy in what is a pivotal chapter of his career.
Nolan King: Sean O’Malley
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
During the UFC’s off-week, Sean O’Malley became a dominant figure of the MMA news cycle. When opponent Louis Smolka withdrew from their UFC 264 matchup due to an infection, O’Malley was met with a flock of rostered and non-rostered fighters raising their hands. However, when the dust settled, it was an off-board volunteer who put pen to paper. Massachusetts’ Kris Moutinho was the winner of “The Suga Show” sweepstakes, to the surprise of many. The news generated a lot of criticism toward O’Malley, despite not all of the facts being in the public eye. Whatever went on behind closed doors is for nothing in the court of public opinion, so there’s a lot of pressure on O’Malley to smoke the UFC newcomer. The bar has been set so high that if O’Malley puts on anything less than a stellar performance, the vocal doubters will appear in droves. If O’Malley loses, he’ll be defeated by someone the majority of MMA fans didn’t know existed one week ago. If he wins, some fans will accuse him of taking an easy fight – and perhaps not doing as well as everyone expected a greater than 8-to-1 favorite to perform. This is a classic scenario of one fighter, the heavy favorite, risking it all, while the underdog has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
1
1