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Hugo Houle inches towards certain victory - REUTERS

Hugo Houle inches towards certain victory – REUTERS

04:07 PM

Madouas takes second

Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ) spoils the north American party after taking second, with Michael Woods in third and Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) fourth.

04:05 PM

Houle wins stage 16 at the Tour de France!

Hugo Houle (Israel-Premier Tech) lands the first win of his long career. Bravo.

04:04 PM

1km to go

Hugo Houle’s lead has increased to 1min 11sec.

04:03 PM

2.5km to go

Hugo Houle takes a huge gulp of air, the Israel-Premier Tech rider is minutes away from sealing a north American one-two-three which will be a Tour de France first.

04:00 PM

5km to go

Hugo Houle, the 31-year-old from Sainte-Perpétue in Quebec, is minutes away from taking the first victory of his career. Don’t think too many people will have predicted this, but what a thoroughly deserved win it will be for the former Ag2r-La Mondiale and Astana rider this will be.

03:58 PM

7km to go

Back in the saddle and Matteo Jorgenson, is his tattered jersey and bib-shorts, has regained contact with Michael Woods. But the pair trail stage leader Hugo Houle by almost a minute.

03:54 PM

10km to go

Isreal-Premier Tech are first and second on the road, surely about to take their second stage of the Tour following Simon Clarke’s victory on the cobbled stage in the opening week.

03:53 PM

Heartbreak for Jorgenson!

The chasing Movistar rider crashed on a left-hand bend, leaving Hugo Houle out in front with Michael Woods second on the road at 32sec.

03:51 PM

15km to go

Romain Bardet has two DSM team-mates shepherding him down this climb, but as it stands the Frenchman is losing time here. At the front of the race, though, Hugo Houle has increased his lead slightly to 34sec. American Matteo Jorgenson is chasing, while Houle’s team-mate and fellow Canadian Michael Woods is sat on the wheel of the Movistar man.

03:48 PM

17.5km to go

Hugo Houle is holding on and could be minutes away from winning the first race of his professional career.

03:47 PM

19.5km to go

Geraint Thomas has managed to close that gap on Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. Remember, there is no more climbing today so as long as there are no mishaps on this descent, there should not be any major gaps between the leading trio in the general classification.

03:45 PM

22km to go

Hugo Houle is on the descent, leading Matteo Jorgenson and Michael Woods – the latter of whom will not help chase down his team-mate – by 31sec. Geraint Thomas is digging deep, keeping his cool in the heat of the battle. The Welshman joins up with team-mate Daniel Martínez just beyond the summit, the two now hoping to close the gap on Jonas Vingegaard’s group.

03:42 PM

25km to go

Brandon McNulty crests the summit of this climb before slowing up, no doubt waiting for team-mate Tadej Pogacar. Likewise, Wout van Aert does the same. Adam Yates, meanwhile, has been dropped by Ineos Grenadiers team-mate Geraint Thomas who has David Gaudu on his wheel.

03:39 PM

27.5km to go

Geraint Thomas and Adam Yates have managed to bridge over. Good work. Rafal Majka appears to have shipped a chain, after which Sepp Kuss rises out of his saddle. The American stamps away on his cranks, and Geraint Thomas is again dropped, only Nairo Quintana is able to hold the wheels of Kuss, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar.

03:36 PM

28km to go

Rafal Majka peers over his left shoulder, Tadej Pogacar is poised sitting off his team-mate’s left shoulder. David Gaudu catches Adam Yates and Geraint Thomas, the British pair who are fighting tooth and nail to claw their way back o to the wheels of the maillot jaune’s group.

03:33 PM

28.5km to go

Michael Storer, Matteo Jorgenson and Michael Woods trail stage leader Hugo Houle by 45sec. Further back, Rafal Majka move to the front of the peloton setting the pace for team-mate Tadej Pogacar. Is the two-time champion about to attack yet again? The increase in pace has seen a small split in the group, with Geraint Thomas and Adam Yates on the wrong side of it. The Welshman, though, appears to be riding his won race and will know exactly what kind of power he is able to sustain on this climb. Tom Pidcock has been dropped.

03:29 PM

29.7km to go

Hugo Houle’s advantage has dropped to just 35sec, while his team-mate and compatriot Michael Woods follows the wheel of Michael Storer. Houle is just 2.km from the summit, but that will feel like an age as the road ramps up high into double digits.

03:27 PM

30km to go

Once again, Movistar a team that over the years have been criticised for not attacking, have again moved to the front of the peloton as they chase down  Louis Meintjes who a few minutes ago went off on a solo mission. Tony Gallopin and Damiano Caruso, meanwhile, have cracked on this steep climb, as has Wout van Aert – although the latter may be dropping back to help his Jumbo-Visma team-mate Jona Vingegaard.

03:23 PM

31km to go

This climb up the Mur de Péguère is a bit of a brute with the final three kilometres pitching up to gradients of up to 18 per cent in places. Tony Gallopin has been caught by the chasing group, while Hugo Houle has grown out his lead to 52ec. There is a 27km descent over the other side of this nasty climb, so plenty of opportunities for some aggressive racing.

Mur de Péguère Mur de Péguère 

Mur de Péguère

03:20 PM

32km to go

Hugo Houle leads Tony Gallopin by 25sec, with the chasing group of Damiano Caruso, Valentin Madouas, Michael Storer, Matteo Jorgenson and Michael Woods at 45sec.

03:12 PM

35km to go

Hugo Houle (Israel-Premier Tech), who regained contact with the stage leaders a few minutes ago while we were focused on the action involving Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, has attacked off the front and leads the stage which is onto the final climb of the day, the category one Mur de Péguère. Tony Gallopin (Trek-Segafredo) is the second rider on the road, then a four-man group of Damiano Caruso, Valentin Madouas, Michael Storer and Matteo Jorgenson. Further back, Enric Mas has been caught by the maillot jaune’s group.

03:07 PM

38km to go

Aleksandr Vlasov has bridged over to the stage leaders, while Enric Mas’ move appears doomed thanks to the increase in pace following Tadej Pogacar’s two attacks. Roman Bardet, who started the day in fourth place on general classification, has lost contact with the maillot jaune, trailing at around 20sec.

03:04 PM

43km to go

Geraint Thomas manages to bridge over to the duelling Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, with Nairo Quintana, David Gaudu and a handful of others lined out behind the main protagonists in the race for the yellow jersey.

03:01 PM

46.5km to go

Just shy of the summit, Tadaj Pogacar puts in a vicious attack, but once again Jonas Vingegaard is able to match the two-time Tour de France champion, pedal stroke for pedal stroke.

02:59 PM

47km to go

Sepp Kuss is back on the front of Jonas Vingegaard’s group.

02:59 PM

48km to go

David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) attacks out of the peloton, reeling back in Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. Geraint Thomas responds with an acceleration of his own. Somebody is going to pay a heavy price for all this aggression.

02:57 PM

49.9km to go

And boom! Tadej Pogacar attacks, but Jonas Vingegaard wastes little time in responding – the Dane jumps straight onto his wheel.

02:55 PM

50km to go

Enric Mas has gained around a minute on the maillot jaune, forcing Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux) to move to the front, the South African probably thinking about keeping his seventh place secure. Tadej Pogacar has just one team-mate Rafal Majka for company now, while Geraint Thomas are mob handed.

02:53 PM

Geschke extends lead in the mountains

Simon Geschke rolled to the front of this seven-man group before going over the summit of the Port de Lers. Aleksandr Vlasov takes a huge gasp as he crests the summit 24sec behind the stage leaders.

Simon Geschke - GETTY IMAGESSimon Geschke - GETTY IMAGES

Simon Geschke – GETTY IMAGES

02:49 PM

55km to go

Damiano Caruso, Michael Storer and Michael Woods have been bridged over to by Wout van Aert, Simon Geschke, Matteo Jorgenson and Brandon McNulty.

02:47 PM

56km to go

And Aleksandr Vlasov has been dropped by Wout van Aert’s group! Van Aert now has just Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) and Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) for company. Further down the road, Enric Mas has two Movistar team-mates for company and the trio have attacked off the front of the maillot jaune’s group, clearly chasing some time on general classification.

02:42 PM

57km to go

Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) is the latest rider to give it a throw of the dice, the young American rolls off the front of the Aleksandr Vlasov group. But Wout van Aert is on a mission, the green jersey presses on, although that is actually helping Vlasov gain a few seconds on race leader Jonas Vingegaard. Interesting move, but not sure how this is helping his Jumbo-Visma team-mate Vingegaard, perhaps he’s trying to make it so hard that Vlasov blows?

02:38 PM

58.5km to go

With slightly under 5km to go from the summit of the Port de Lers, Damiano Caruso has Michael Storer and Michael Woods for company. Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ) is the next rider on the road, but his advantage over Aleksandr Vlasov’s (Bora-Hansgrohe) group is quite small. Tiesj Benoot, meanwhile, is pulling along the maillot jaune’s group – but does Tadej Pogacar have anything tucked up his white sleeve?

02:35 PM

60km to go

Christophe Laporte has peeled off the front of the maillot jaune’s group, the Frenchman’s day is done. Simon Geschke (Cofidis) and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) have attacked out of the reduced breakaway, the pair off in pursuit of stage leader Damiano Caruso and the chasing pair of Michael Storer and Michael Woods who joined forces a couple of minutes ago.

02:30 PM

61.5km to go

Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), the veteran puncheur, is off in pursuit of stage leader Damiano Caruso, while Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ), the young Aussie who won two stages at last year’s Vuelta a España, is chasing down the Canadian.

02:25 PM

63km to go

Alexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM) has finally paid the price for his earlier exploits and the Frenchman has been shelled from the breakaway as it hits the first of two back-to-back category one climbs. By contrast, Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), the veteran Italian who pulled off a surprise second at last year’s Giro d’Italia, has clipped off the front and is, as it stands, the lone leader of the stage. The breakaway is in tatters, Caruso leads the maillot jaune by 8min 2sec with Marc Soler over 20 minutes down the road.

02:21 PM

Vlasov: ‘I’ll definitely try something’

Speaking ahead of today’s stage, Aleksandr Vlasov, who has moved up to third in the virtual general classification as a result of him being in the breakaway that leads the stage by 8min 18sec, said he would ‘definitely try’ to do something today. “Today is a hard day, because these two climbs are pretty hard, and after the rest day maybe guys will be fresher to get in the breakaway. So for sure it’ll be a fast start. And the GC [general classification] guys can also play in the last climb, because it’s very steep. I think Pogacar will try to do something of course, he needs to recover some time before the time trial. I’m not in perfect shape. But yeah, I will try to do something. Maybe also it’s good for me if they’ll look at each other and I can do something, I’ll definitely try.”

02:17 PM

67km to go

As you can see, riders have been stuffing ice down their jerseys in an attempt to keep cool on the road to Foix.

Groupama-FDJ - APGroupama-FDJ - AP

Groupama-FDJ – AP

02:13 PM

70km to go

The breakaway continues to press on, edging ever closer to the start of the climb to the category one Port de Lers. Quite a lot of looking around in the group, starting to think a few of the riders are getting a little upset with their co-riders as some appear to be doing a little more work than the others. Would not be surprised to see this sizeable group split up before it reaches the summit.

02:07 PM

74km to go

Marc Soler is over seven – SEVEN – minutes down on the maillot jaune which itself is ove seven – SEVEN – minutes down on the breakaway.

02:01 PM

Thomas: ‘There could be attacks all over the place’

Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) provided his thoughts on the next three stages exclusively for Eurosport and GCN: “We’ve got the three guys on GC [general classification], then Dani [Martínez] and Castro [Jonathan Castroviejo] slowly getting over their sickness. Hopefully we will be riding well these three days. We see this as a big three day block and we’ll take it as it comes.

Geraint Thomas - GETTY IMAGESGeraint Thomas - GETTY IMAGES

Geraint Thomas – GETTY IMAGES

“Looking at the guys in front, not too much other than over-exuberance. Looking behind, we need to keep one eye on them but you’re always trying to look ahead and move forward. With the TT (time trial) up my sleeve it’s a nice one to have, but these three days I think we can expect anything as there could be attacks all over the place.”

01:57 PM

81km to go

The breakaway has increased its lead further still to 7min 35sec, which is good news for Aleksandr Vlasov who will, as it stands, be moving up into the top five in the general classification. Alberto Contador, meanwhile, has been talking on Eurosport where he is working as an in-race commentator, and has speculated that Marc Soler, who is riding just metres ahead of the dreaded voiture-balai – broom wagon – may not be completing this stage.

01:50 PM

87km to go

The TV cameras, understandably, have been focused on Marc Soler for some time now and it is not a pretty picture. The 28-year-old is labouring and is ver a minute down on the maillot jaune and his team leader Tadej Pogacar who has already lost team-mates Vegard Stake Laengen and George Bennett.

01:47 PM

‘Vingegaard is motivated – we are ready’

Frans Maassen, sports director for Jumbo-Visma, speaking to Eurosport and GCN earlier today, on how his team are shaping up for the final week: “Two guys less but we have Wout [van Aert] who counts for three. [On Roglic] We made the decision; of course it’s a pity he left us but seeing him struggling every day for 10 days, it was not nice. The fast start some days when he was dropped after 30km, that was also not nice when a champ like that has to race in the Tour. It was not an easy decision of course. Jonas [Vingegaard] feels really strong and is motivated to battle in the Pyrenees so we are ready for that.”

01:44 PM

92km to go

Marc Soler, who has been suffering with nasty sounding stomach issues, was just spotted back at the medical car where he received a little treatment. It looked as if he had, perhaps, been stung or, maybe, was simply getting some sunscreen added: either way, the race doctor sprayed the back of his neck with some sort of magic potion.

01:37 PM

99km to go

Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates) has been vomiting, according to race radio. Not great news that. The gap between the breakaway and peloton has increased to a shade below seven minutes.

01:35 PM

100km to go

Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates) has been spotted hanging off the rear of the peloton. There have been reports that the Spaniard dropped back to the medical car which will give his team leader Tadej Pogacar cause for concern. Tom Pidcock is riding at second wheel, in his brand new Oakley Sutro Lites, doing a turn for his Ineos Grenadiers team-mates.

01:29 PM

105km to go

Wout van Aert has been spotted shooting the breeze with Nils Eekhoff, the Belgian all-rounder appeared happy enough and not too bothered by the Dutchman taking maximum points at the intermediate. Not surprising really, Van Aert had amassed enough points going into Monday’s rest day (378) to have won the green jersey for the last three editions. Barring a withdrawal, Van Aert will be taking that jersey home with him following Sunday’s stage in Paris.

01:22 PM

110.7km to go

Nils Eekhoff upsets the odds and takes 20 points at the intermediate sprint ahead of Wout van Aert, the latter of just tightened his vice-like grip on the green jersey. Once over the line in Lavelanet, Philippe Gilbert (Lotto-Soudal) appeared keen on pressing on. The breakaway currently lead the maillot jaune by 6min 30sec.

01:18 PM

112km to go

Ineos Grenadiers, by the way, have assumed position as the second team in the peloton, presumably due to the fact they have their full complement of eight riders still in the race – with Colombian climber Daniel Martínez in the breakaway. Is Martínez eyeing the stage today, or is he too acting as a satellite rider today?

01:15 PM

114km to go

The breakaway inches towards Lavelanet, with a road rising gently. Felix Grosschartner (Bora-Hansgrohe) has been riding on the front, no doubt hoping to help team-mate Aleksandr Vlasov who may be moving up the general classification this afternoon.

01:08 PM

120km to go

Christophe Laporte has assumed his usual position on the front of the peloton along with team-mate Tiesj Benoot, but race leader Jonas Vingegaard has just one other Jumbo-Visma rider – Sepp Kuss – for company after Wout van Aert and Nathan Van Hooydonck got into the breakaway. No huge surprise to see Van Aert getting off up the road, but not entirely sure why Van Hooydonck is in there. Vingegaard, remember, lost two team-mates – Primoz Roglic and Steven Kruijswijk – on Sunday and so already has a depleted team, and would probably prefer Van Hooydonck alongside him on the long run towards the first big climb of the day. Suspect Van Aert will be targeting maximum points at the intermediate sprint in Lavelanet and may also act as a satellite rider later in the stage, but not sure what the plan is with Van Hooydonck.

01:00 PM

As it stands . . .

Afternoon all. It looks a little warm out on the road, but that did not deter a very large group in shifting their way off the front of the peloton once the flag was dropped ta KMO in Carcassonne. Following a phoney war at the pointy end of the stage, Alexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM) led the stage for a while and the 29-year-old Frenchman must have regretted having got into the move after he was hung out to slowly roast by the chasing group of 28 riders.

Alexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM) - GETTY IMAGESAlexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM) - GETTY IMAGES

Alexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM) – GETTY IMAGES

Gougeard led by around one minute, but has now been caught by that 28-man group. The breakaway now leads the maillot jaune and the rest of the main protagonists in the race for yellow by 5min 58sec. The highest placed rider in the general classification in the second group is Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe), the Russian started the day 10min 42sec down on Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), and so he will be getting monitored very closely this afternoon.

The breakaway in full

Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Cyril Barthe (B&B Hotels-KTM), Stefan Bissegger (EF Education-EasyPost), Maxime Bouet (Arkéa-Samsic), Mathieu Burgaudeau (TotalEnergies), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Nils Eekhoff (DSM), Tony Gallopin (Trek-Segafredo), Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto-Soudal), Alexis Gougeard (B&B Hotels-KTM), Felix Grosschartner (Bora-Hansgrohe), Mikkel Honore (Quick Step-Alpha Vinyl), Nathan Van Hooydonck (Jumbo-Visma), Hugo Houle (Israel-Premier Tech), Gorka Izagirre (Movistar), Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar), Olivier Le Gac (Groupama-FDJ), Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ), Daniel Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers), Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates), Lukasz Owsian (Arkéa-Samsic), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ), Dylan Teuns (Bahrain Victorious), Simone Velasco (Astana Qazaqstan), Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe), Tim Wellens (Lotto-Soudal) and Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech).

11:20 AM

Hello

And welcome to our live rolling blog from stage 16 of the 109th Tour de France, the 178.5-kilometre run from Carcassonne to Foix.

Following Monday’s rest day – the third and final day out of the saddle for the remaining riders at this year’s race – racing resumes at 11.40am (BST) with Telegraph Sport’s coverage due to get under way at 1pm.

Before we have a very quick look at today’s stage, colleague Tom Cary has been toying with the fanciful notion of how Geraint Thomas could, against all the odds, win a second Tour title in Paris on Sunday.

The Tour has entered its final week with Thomas currently occupying the third podium spot, two minutes 43 seconds behind the yellow jersey Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and just 21 seconds behind second placed Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates).

The question is, does the Welshman, and his team Ineos Grenadiers, protect that place and follow wheels, hoping for one or both of the riders ahead to slip up? Or do they risk it all going for a famous victory?

Thomas, who has already won the Tour in 2018, and finished runner-up in 2019, suggested on the final rest day on Monday that he was prepared to do the latter. But he stressed there was no point in “attacking just for the sake of attacking – for the TV cameras”. It had to be well thought out and worth the risk.

Here, Telegraph Sport looks at Thomas’ options in the final week.

Despite losing two key team-mates in Sunday’s stage, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) will be wear the maillot jaune, the leader’s yellow jersey, for a fifth day running.

Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) will again be in the maillot vert, the green jersey, as overall leader of the points classification.

Simon Geschke (Cofidis) will remain dressed in the maillot à pois, or the polka dot jersey, as the leader of the mountains classification.

Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates), who has led the young rider classification since stage one, will be dressed in the white jersey.

So, what’s on today’s menu?

Three categorised climbs, including the long descent off the category one Mur de Péguère that will take the riders down to Foix, may make it ideal terrain for a breakaway rider to prevail while equally being suited to a late ambush territory for those challenging in the general classification.

Stage 16Stage 16

Stage 16

And finally, the weather. . .

Follow Telegraph Sport’s live coverage from 1pm (BST).

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