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1. Jacksonville – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)
Last week, new HC Doug Pederson singled out the trenches as being a point of emphasis in building his first team in Duval. LT Cam Robinson and LG Andrew Norwell are impending free agents, while RT Jawaan Taylor has been shaky.
2. Detroit – EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)
It would be a close call between Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux – and don’t discount the possibility of a small trade-down with a target of QB Malik Willis in mind. But if the Lions indeed go EDGE in the two-hole, my guess is Hutch wins tiebreakers over Thibs as the local kid with a more well-rounded game.
3. Houston – EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)
Thibodeaux could go as high as 1, or fall as low as 7. That speaks both to the range of opinions about his evaluation, but also to the truly fascinating element about this draft: Unlike in past classes, we may have no idea who is going 1-2-3 (and of course beyond) when the draft opens on the last Thursday night in April.
4. NY Jets – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)
The Jets need secondary help in the worst way. I’m not hearing Sauce Gardner smoke this high yet, and I refuse to believe Derek Stingley will get drafted in the top-five when the smoke clears. Even though this seems like a lofty slot for a safety, Hamilton – an elite do-it-all-playmaker – would be the best-available player fitting the Jets’ needs.
5. NY Giants – OL Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)
Many teams might draft Ekwonu as a tackle, but if he falls to the Giants, he’d likely start his career inside. Count it as a coup in the name of fixing New York’s abysmal interior offensive line that ranked dead-last in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics last season.
6. Carolina – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
I am bullish on Malik Willis and believe he has a decent chance of ending up as QB1 (as I rank him). But reports of Carolina’s interest in Pickett have legs. Remember: Pickett was once committed to play for Matt Rhule at Temple. And Rhule appears to have a strong preference for pocket-passing quarterbacks, between Charlie Brewer at Baylor, his work with P.J. Walker at Temple and the NFL, and passing on Justin Fields in last year’s draft in deference to taking a post-hype sleeper stab on Sam Darnold. I believe taking Pickett over Willis would be a mistake. But I also believe that Rhule hasn’t learned from his past mistakes on the offensive side of the ball.
7. NY Giants (via CHI) – EDGE David Ojabo (Michigan)
Dave Gettleman’s parting gift to the Giants was two top-seven picks to hopefully fix his former team’s two biggest issues: The aforementioned interior offensive line, and one of the NFL’s worst pass rushes. The bonanza would be Thibodeaux falling into your lap. If that doesn’t happen, rolling the dice on Ojabo’s Brian Burns-esque speed-rushing ceiling ain’t a bad fallback option.
8. Atlanta – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
Perfect marriage between team, city and prospect – if management is willing to take a player who may not play much in 2021. Willis’ ceiling is absurd, but he has so much to learn. He should be put on the Pat Mahomes/Lamar Jackson plan and would thus be well-suited for a year behind a pro’s pro like Matt Ryan.
9. Denver – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)
Denver appears to leaning towards acquiring a veteran to solve its quarterback issues, be it Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, or someone else. Assuming that’s true, the ideology of this pick would mirror last year’s. And Gardner would be a nasty long-term running mate across from Patrick Surtain II. Your younger brother’s version of Aqib Talib/Chris Harris (shoutout to Kansas).
10. NY Jets (via SEA) – WR Treylon Burks (Arkansas)
Criticized for never giving Sam Darnold weapons, the Jets changed tact for Zach Wilson with the selection of Elijah Moore and signing of Corey Davis. Neither of those guys is a true NFL WR1, though. Burks could become that type of weapon – knocking the other two into their proper spots, and playing the entire unit up as a result.
11. Washington – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)
It’s true that this is a down quarterback class, but it feels like we’re going to get three top-15 quarterbacks anyway. Pickett seems likely to be one of them based on cost certainty (floor). The question becomes: Who will the NFL settle on as the other two based on ceiling? My guess is Willis and Corral. I saw Daniel Jeremiah comp Corral to a Zach Wilson-type recently. My fear with Corral is he’s closer to Mitchell Trubisky, or a well-behaved Johnny Manziel.
12. Minnesota – iOL Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)
Under new management, the Vikings’ plans could drastically sway if a radical new approach is decided upon and Kirk Cousins is traded. Assuming Minnesota stays the course and tries to patch its short-term holes, fixing the badly-leaking interior offensive line is a must. At minimum, one new starting guard is needed. Beyond that, former first-rounder C Garrett Bradbury, who has spent more time in Cousins’ lap than Cousins’ infant children, cannot be trusted (No. 29 PFF graded center out of 39 last year). Linderbaum could either replace Bradbury or start alongside him at guard on a one-year make-good proposition. Linderbaum is coming off the most dominant center season in PFF-graded history and is cost-certainty personified.
13. Cleveland – EDGE George Karlaftis (Purdue)
The Browns also have a need at receiver. But this class is particularly stacked at the top in EDGE rushers, which could present an opportunity like this one, with the two-way end Karlaftis, a decorated hybrid defender, available at 13. A starting-caliber receiver should still be available in Round 2.
14. Baltimore – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)
McDuffie has a junkyard dog cover ethos that led to only 111 yards allowed on 36 targets last year. Underrated prospect who excelled for the past three years in the Pac-12.
15. Philadelphia (via MIA) – LB Devin Lloyd (Utah)
Philly may earmark all three of its first-round picks to the defense, which has several impending free agents. The board has fallen well, with no linebackers taken yet, giving the Birds their choice. They select Utah’s rugged, sleek Lloyd.
16. Philadelphia (via IND) – CB Derek Stingley Jr. (LSU)
Every year, players who are seen as top-10 locks in January fall out of the top-10. My early nomination for that this class are Stingley and the guy below. Stingley was great as a true freshman, terrible as a sophomore, and injured as a junior. Some people’s risk tolerance is apparently higher than mine.
17. LA Chargers – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi St)
Cross is going higher around the industry right now. But after Andre Dillard’s struggles, you can bet the tape of all future Mike Leach linemen will be scrutinized closer. Leach’s quarterbacks release the ball as quickly as anyone in the nation, giving the ample amount of collegiate pass-pro sets a cotton candy feel.
18. New Orleans – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)
There’s a “smooth as silk Ohio State receiver” Michael Thomas symmetry to this pick that was ultimately too alluring to resist. The Saints are buoyed by the well of quarterbacks drying up quickly – it’s probably too soon for Sam Howell after the season he just had.
19. Philadelphia – EDGE Jermaine Johnson II (Florida State)
Philly indeed uses all three first-round picks on the defense. The first time around, they took the no-brainer Lloyd, the second time they rolled the dice on Stingley’s perceived upside, for this last one they’re going to buy Johnson’s cost-certainty. Relentless, clever and stout, Johnson will start immediately, and he will start for a long, long time.
20. Pittsburgh – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)
I reported Pittsburgh’s interest in Malik Willis from the Senior Bowl earlier this month — and that’s now well-documented. But unless the Steelers move up — as PFF’s Mike Renner had the Steelers doing to No. 9 with the Broncos to take Willis in his most recent mock draft — they don’t figure to have a chance at landing the Liberty star. Penning’s calling-card is a mauling brand of run-blocking. But buyer beware: He was a penalty machine at the FCS level and is now leaping up in competition.
21. New England – iDL Jordan Davis (Georgia)
Taking the baton from elephantine forebearers Refrigerator Perry and Vince Wilfork, it would be neat symmetry to see the planet-shaped former Georgia Bulldog star sucked into Wilfork’s old orbit in New England. Davis just feels like a Patriot, doesn’t he?
22. Las Vegas – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
The Raiders badly need help at receiver. This would constitute a best-case scenario for them. Wilson combines explosion with smooth route-running, gaining separation as easily as any prospect in this class.
23. Arizona – iDL Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)
Whether shopping for offensive weapons or along the defensive side of the ball, Kliff Kingsbury and company have shown an affinity for twitch in their time in charge. Would stand to figure that they might be attracted to the twitched-up Wyatt to plug their interior hole.
24. Dallas – iOL Zion Johnson (Boston College)
Between the 2021 regular season and the Senior Bowl, Johnson’s stock has surged with no signs of stopping. He now has a very real shot at the iOL2 designation. This would be a nice fit between prospect and team.
25. Buffalo – WR Drake London (USC)
Josh Allen has the biggest arm in the NFL. The 6-foot-5 London has the best ball skills in the draft. London would be a great fit next to Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis. If you leave London 1-on-1 deep, he’s coming down with the ball. If you’ve like what you’ve seen of Allen-to-Davis downfield, just wait until you see Allen with an elite downfield rebounder like Drake London. I don’t think London will be a top-32 guy on all 32 boards around the NFL. But he’d be top-20 on Buffalo’s if I were in charge.
26. Tennessee – LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)
If Colorado State TE Trey McBride sneaks into the first-round, this would be the most logical slot for it to happen. But with so many quality prospects at the top of this class, chances are that Tennessee is going to be confronted with a prospect at a different position, such as Dean, that it simply cannot turn down.
27. Tampa Bay – QB Sam Howell (UNC)
This pick obviously assumes that Tom Brady will not un-retire, and it also assumes that Tampa Bay won’t go out and acquire a multi-year starting option at the position to replace him before the draft (such as Kirk Cousins or Jimmy Garoppolo). In that scenario, Tampa Bay would be headed towards a rebuild. I saw Kyle Trask as a long-term backup coming out – I would want a higher-ceiling guy in the building if I’m starting over. Howell’s deep-ball ethos would appeal to Bruce Arians.
28. Green Bay – iOL Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)
The Packers apparently will cater to Aaron Rodgers’ every desire this offseason in order to try and keep him for another season (or are at the very least invested in giving us that theater for appearance sakes). I’m not sure WR Jameson Williams makes sense for an all-in, one-year scenario… and I’m not sure Jahan Dotson is worth a Round 1 call. However, Green Bay could pop clearly the best interior linemen left on the board here and wait for Day 2 to address needs at receiver and defensive front-seven.
29. Miami (via SF) – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)
Had Williams not torn his ACL in the title game, he’d have had a real shot of being WR1 in this class. He evokes former Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy, a twitchy route-runner who can punch it from 0-to-60 in a blink and slam the breaks on a dime. We won’t know exactly where he shakes out in the hierarchy until we get updated medical news post-Combine – late-R1 feels like a good hedge. And the Dolphins could sure use him.
30. Kansas City – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)
When the Chiefs lost to Tom Brady’s Bucs in the 2020 Super Bowl, it was painfully obvious what area of the team KC needed to spend the offseason addressing: offensive line. They fixed it. After watching the Chiefs’ secondary get trashed by Joe Burrow in Cincinnati’s wild second-half comeback in the AFC championship game – following KC’s No. 27 rank in passing yards allowed during the regular season – it’s equally obvious what area of the team needs addressing this offseason. Elam is the prototype long NFL corner you sic on the Mike Williams’ and Courtland Sutton’s of the world.
31. Cincinnati – OT Bernhard Raimann (Central Michigan)
If the whole world didn’t agree that Cincinnati badly needed offensive line help before the Super Bowl, it certainly does now. Raimann, a former tight end with nifty feet, is an ascending prospect with plenty of ceiling left to develop.
32. Detroit (via LAR) – CB Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson)
Jeff Okudah’s season-ending Achilles injury in the opener badly exposed Detroit’s secondary. Will Harris can never be allowed to play corner snaps again, and Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs need to be in complimentary roles. Okudah’s return to health and the acquisition of a Day 1 starter like Booth would knock everyone into proper place. Coming out of Round 1 with Aidan Hutchinson and Booth is a nice start. With the Lions also holding pick 2.34 – two slots below – a quarterback could be the target, with Carson Strong and Desmond Ridder the top developmental options still available.