The past few years have seen some NFL MVPs that were far down the odds list when the season started. One of them was Patrick Mahomes in his second season.
BetMGM has already offered MVP odds and the usual stars are favored. If you want to bet Mahomes to win it at 7-to-1 odds, nobody would say it’s a bad bet. But it’s also worth looking for the next Mahomes and try to cash a bigger ticket.
Two quarterbacks entering their second seasons, each with 150-to-1 odds to win MVP, stand out.
NFL MVP is likely to be a QB again
NFL MVP betting has one edge: You can cut it down to 32 candidates before the season starts.
Jonathan Taylor would have to rush for 3,000 yards or T.J. Watt would need to post 35 sacks … and voters would probably still just pick a quarterback anyway. NFL MVP has become a quarterback award.
Over the last 28 seasons, dating back to Emmitt Smith’s win in 1993, there have been 30 MVP winners from the Associated Press (it was split twice). There were 24 quarterbacks, three running backs who set an NFL single-season touchdown record and three running backs who rushed for 2,000 yards. There has been one non-QB MVP since 2006 (Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 2,000 yards in 2012). If you’re running back who has a record-breaking season you have a small chance. That’s it.
If you want to take Ja’Marr Chase at 50-to-1 or Christian McCaffrey at 100-to-1 that’s fine. But it’s ignoring that voters don’t even bother looking at non-QBs.
So when you’re looking for an NFL MVP bet, you don’t really need to look at anyone but quarterbacks. That makes it a little easier. And among the QBs, Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and Zach Wilson of the New York Jets stand out. They’re both 150-to-1, but they check the first box of being a QB. And while you need to do some mental gymnastics to get them to an MVP level, it’s not impossible.
Justin Fields, Zach Wilson are talented young players
Among those two quarterbacks, I’d lean toward Fields. Fields had some moments last season in which he looked very good. The consistency wasn’t there but he made some splash plays. You could see he belonged in the NFL.
The Bears have a new coach in Matt Eberflus and a new offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy. They’re unknowns, but it’s possible that they get the most out of Fields. The Bears will need to make the playoffs (only two MVPs have come from non-playoff teams and the last one was in 1973), but if Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins aren’t with the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings anymore, the NFC North would be wide open.
Wilson didn’t show as much as a rookie, but there’s a reason he was the No. 2 overall pick. It’s hard to play quarterback as a rookie, no matter how easy Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert made it look. The Jets could build up around Wilson, and they have some solid talent already on offense (receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, two first-round picks on the offensive line). Getting the Jets to the playoffs takes a leap of faith, but that’s a reason their QB has +15000 odds for MVP.
The Jets and Bears have the sixth- and ninth-most projected cap space, respectively. The Jets have two top-10 picks (Chicago traded its 2022 pick to move up for Fields). If those teams make big moves on offense, their quarterbacks’ MVP odds will change.
Will Fields or Wilson (or Trevor Lawrence, who is also enticing at 100-to-1 odds, or Trey Lance at 66-to-1) win MVP? Likely not. But they both have some value at their odds. After all, they’re quarterbacks, so the most important qualification is taken care of.