It’s March and everyone wants a Cinderella team or two for their Tourney Pick’Em bracket. Here are my favorite candidates to crash the party, on the eve of the ball.
Virginia Tech, No. 11 seed, East
No matter where you sit with Duke and the Coach K farewell tour, the Blue Devils are a good basketball team. And man, did the Hokies absolutely shred them in the ACC Tournament Final. Virginia Tech was cohesive, unselfish, and the Hokies have a bunch of shooters to go with some reliable interior scoring.
So where was this all year? How did this team lose 12 games? A ton of those losses were early and by close margins — the Hokies rank as the second “unluckiest” team per KenPom’s metrics. Mike Young is a heck of a coach and this team isn’t scared of anyone, even a possible Purdue meeting in Round 2. I’ll have the Hokies advancing into the second week of play.
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South Dakota State, No. 13 seed, Midwest
I’ll check my allegiances at the door. I’m a Providence guy, and when I saw the PC draw, I wanted to throw up. South Dakota State is a three-point efficiency dream, and it’s working on a 21-game winning streak. And if Providence survives that game, it probably steps into the Iowa Hawkeyes, who somehow only received a No. 5 seed despite winning the Big 10 Tournament (the committee sure seemed to ignore that result).
The Jackrabbits are going to be a trendy upset pick, in part because it’s not a big leap of faith — Providence is only favored by 2.5 points right now. South Dakota State head coach Eric Henderson is going places — three straight Summit League regular-season titles, and now a ticket to the tournament. This is his moment. Please don’t tell Ed Cooley I wrote any of this.
Ohio State (No. 7 seed) or Michigan (No. 11 seed), South
Around this time you want to be mindful for a talented team that, for whatever reason, underachieved most of the year. The Buckeyes and Wolverines check that box. OSU coach Chris Holtmann is capable of fixing his defense, and E.J. Lidell and Malaki Branham are NBA talents. Not everyone saw Michigan as a bonafide NCAA team, but Hunter Dickinson has been everything expected in his second year, and late-season losses to Iowa and Indiana look a little more acceptable given recent events.
Vermont, No. 13 seed, West
Few will get crazy and expect Vermont to tear up the West region; it’s the Gonzaga invitational, after all, and I don’t like how they match up with UConn. But I’ll pick the Catamounts to cover against Arkansas and maybe win outright, and I know Vermont will be easy to watch. It’s an experienced team (second-most experienced in the field), an efficient team, a team that never turns the ball over. Easy on the eyes, easy on the stomach. Vermont never beats itself, you have to play 40 strong minutes to dispatch these guys.
First Four Team to Fall In Love With: Bryant
These aren’t the Bulldogs to pencil into the Final 4, we all recognize that. Bryant has a play-in game Wednesday and if it beats Wright State, the reward is Arizona. But Bryant’s probably the most fun basketball team you haven’t seen all year.
Peter Kiss is the leading scorer in the NEC, and should have been Player of the Year. That award went to Alex Morales of Wagner, a dynamite player — and Bryant held him to 0-for-16 shooting in the NEC championship game. With senior big Hall Elisias healthy again (he had eight blocks in the Wagner win), Bryant’s defense is notably improved. And junior guard Charles Pride is one of those glue guys who wins for you; despite being 6-foot-4 and a modest athlete, he led the conference in rebounding. He also had 17 rebounds in that Wagner game.
What do you do with all this? Pick Bryant to upset Wright State Wednesday — the Raiders are small favorites as they’re playing in their home city of Dayton, but Bryant’s recent form (16-1 in last 17) belies their overall metric standing. After you cash that ticket, grab Bryant plus the points against Arizona. Peter Kiss and Charles Pride aren’t afraid of anyone, I can assure you that.