Now we’re talking.
The Green Bay Packers (7-8) could not have asked for a better weekend, capped with a win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Football Outsiders now puts the odds of the Packers making the playoffs now at 36.3%, a marked improvement from a couple weeks ago.
Green Bay got help from a number of places, with the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks all losing. The Packers don’t quite control their own destiny yet, but it’s getting closer. Let’s start by assuming the Packers finish the year with wins over Minnesota and Detroit to land at 9-8. Here’s what else still has to happen:
The Giants and Commanders remain the biggest obstacles
If the season ended today, New York (8-6-1) and Washington (7-7-1) would hold the final two playoff spots.
The easiest way into the playoffs for the Packers would be for Washington to lose once more and Green Bay wins out. The Commanders have two remaining home games against Cleveland (6-9) and Dallas (11-4). On paper, one of those looks easier than the other, but there’s a caveat.
Dallas (11-4) could be guaranteed the No. 5 seed based on what happens next week. If Philadelphia (13-2) beats New Orleans (6-9) or the Cowboys lose to the Tennessee Titans (7-8) on Thursday, then it’s a wrap, with the Eagles locked into the No. 1 seed for the playoffs and Dallas locked into No. 5. That’s bad news for Green Bay, since the Cowboys would theoretically rest their starters in that finale against Washington. Ergo, Packers fans should be hoping for New Orleans and Dallas wins.
Philadelphia could still be missing quarterback Jalen Hurts next week, so that might lend a smidge of optimism to Packers fans.
The Giants would need to lose both of their remaining games for Green Bay to catch them (again, assuming the Packers win their final two games), and New York finishes the year with Indianapolis (4-9-1), and Philadelphia (13-2). Again, Philadelphia might be taking it easy in the finale based on next week’s results.
But in the scenario where New York loses both those games and Washington loses once, the Packers could finish 2-0 and find themselves as the No. 6 seed.
What about Seattle or Detroit, since they also have 7-8 records?
Green Bay would finish 9-8 if it won out, and that would include a win over Detroit, so the Lions could wind up with a record no better than 8-9.
Seattle could still reach 9-8 by winning its final two games, but Green Bay would have a better record in NFC games than the Seahawks under this scenario (7-5 compared to 6-6 for the Seahawks).
Thus, if the Packers win out, they only have to worry about Washington (or New York) yielding that final playoff spot.
Could the Packers be eliminated even with a win over Minnesota?
No, the Packers would remain alive into the season finale.
Will the Packers be eliminated with a loss against Minnesota?
Not necessarily, but they’ll know more by the 3:25 p.m. Sunday kickoff time, because they will be eliminated if the Packers lose and either Washington or Detroit won earlier in the day.
For the Packers to reach the playoffs at that point, Washington would have to lose its final two games. In the event the Lions beat the Bears and the Packers lose to the Vikings, Green Bay could still tie Detroit at 8-9 if the Packers rebound to beat the Lions in the finale, but Detroit would have the edge on tiebreakers with a better record against teams in the division (4-2 vs. 3-3).
A Seattle win next week would also put the Seahawks a game ahead of Green Bay in the standings if the Packers lose, though Seattle could still lose in the final week against the Rams to also finish 8-9, and the Packers would have the edge on a tiebreaker (better record against NFC opponents). In essence, this week’s Seahawks game doesn’t matter if the Packers fall to Minnesota; all that will matter is next week’s.
So the Packers could make the playoffs at 8-9?
Yes, but there’s no scenario where the Packers can lose to Detroit and make the playoffs, so the 8-9 record would have to mean a loss to the Vikings.
If Green Bay loses to the Vikings, it would need all of these things to make the playoffs…
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Washington to lose its final two games
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Detroit to lose to the Bears on Sunday
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Seattle to lose to the Rams in the finale
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Green Bay to beat Lions in the finale, obviously
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For the NFC South to stay out of the way
Wait, what’s this about the NFC South?
That last part is a tricky one, but basically an 8-9 Tampa Bay or New Orleans team could still be a problem. Consider these scenarios:
If New Orleans goes 2-0 over Philadelphia and Carolina, it either wins the division (because Tampa Bay finished 0-2) or it takes second, and the latter could be a problem because the Saints might hold a tiebreaker edge over Green Bay on the strength of victory tiebreaker. At the moment, it’s too close to call which team comes out on top there, but the Saints and Packers would be tied in the preceding tiebreakers in the hierarchy (record vs. NFC opponents and record vs. common foes).
We already said a Saints win over the Eagles this week is good news for the Packers, and since these scenarios are a little more far-fetched, that remains true. Remember, it never comes to any of this if Washington, Detroit or Green Bay win their game this week.
If Carolina finishes the year 2-0, it ties Tampa Bay at 8-9 and wins the South on head-to-head tiebreaker, leaving the Buccaneers to compete for a wild-card spot. The Packers have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bucs, but if Seattle sticks its nose in there as part of a three-way tie at 8-9, the Bucs get the edge over the other two based on record in NFC games.
MoreNearly everything went right for Packers’ playoff chances Saturday; here’s what they still need
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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What has to happen for Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs