The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth tied the course record on Friday, each carding rounds of 62 at Liberty National. On Saturday however, it was Cameron Smith who one, no two-upped the American duo. With the mullet looking as fine as ever, the Australian went around Liberty National bogey-free, connecting on 11 birdies, all good for a round of 60.
Starting the day at 5-under, Smith was listed at +12500 at PointsBet Sportsbook heading into the weekend. Converting birdies on five of his first six holes, Smith’s odds plummeted as the likelihood to catch Rahm skyrocketed.
He added another birdie on the outward half as he turned in 6-under 30. At 11-under through 17 holes, Smith was in need of one more on the closing hole to capture the coveted 59. Hitting his approach shot inside of 12 feet, Smith was unable to convert, and instead settled for 60.
Posting +7.17 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Smith found 15 of 18 greens in regulation in his third round. Gaining just north of a stroke on the greens, the hot putter that Smith typically relies on wasn’t all that present on Saturday. With numerous misses from inside of 15 feet, it could have been an even more memorable day in Jersey City if only the flat stick had come to life.
Faltering late, Jon Rahm had played 48-holes of mistake-free golf before arriving to the par-5 13th. At 5-under for his third-round and standing in the middle of the fairway, Rahm’s approach shot found the penalty area, resulting in a double-bogey seven and dropping to 15-under for the tournament, the Spaniard’s ship appeared to be taking on water.
Finessing a par save on the par-3 14th from the high grass followed suit before a kick-in birdie on the par-4 15th. Now at 16-under, and in a tie for the lead with Smith, Rahm laced his tee shot green side on the drivable par-4 16th. Needing to get up-and-down to regain the solo lead, Rahm’s pitch shot airmailed the green, once again finding the water.
Back at 15-under, Rahm added his seventh birdie of the day on the very next holes to reclaim his spot atop the leaderboard at 16-under. In what will be not one but a two-night sleep on the lead, due to Tropical Storm Henri making headway up the east coast, Rahm will attempt to become the first wire-to-wire winner of the 2021 super season.
Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+135: Jon Rahm
+300: Cameron Smith
+800: Justin Thomas
+1200: Tony Finau
+1400: Erik Van Rooyen
+1800: Viktor Hovland
+3300: Shane Lowry
+5000: Brooks Koepka
+6600: Corey Conners
+8000: Tom Hoge, Xander Schauffele
+10000: Harold Varner III
Round 4 Targets (Odds Via PointsBet):
It’s a scary situation picking an outright winner heading into the final round of a tournament these days. With Phil Mickelson being the last successful 54-hole leader, Rahm and Smith are likely to buck such an odd trend. I figure you can’t go wrong with either of them as Rahm likely won’t find the penalty area twice in the final round and Smith may discover a bit more form on the greens.
Yet, I will forgo adding an outright and instead look to Perez to possibly capture a top-10 finish. In what has been an ugly week for us thus far, Perez has been trending nicely ahead of Monday’s final round. Sitting in a tie for 17th, Perez has carded back-to-back rounds of 66 after opening with an even-par 71. At 10-under, the American sits two-strokes behind the bunch currently in a tie for ninth at 12-under.
After just narrowly posting positive tee-to-green statistics in Round 1, Perez has since gained 4.66 strokes on the field in said category. Thanks to strong iron-play, ranking 12th in SG: Approach for the week, he has been able to hide other soft spots in his game. Losing strokes off-the-tee and struggling with his short-game on Saturday, I am of the belief that a complete round could be in store for Perez.
Zero double-bogeys to his name through 54-holes, Perez has carded seven bogeys against 17 birdies. Four of those squares on the scorecard occurred on Thursday alone, signifying a possible clean card in his near future. If he can sharpen up off-the-tee, then I believe that could take shape and lead to a backdoor top-10.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium DFS and Betting Golf Tools that are packed with a DFS Optimizer, DFS Projections, Salary Tracker, Edge Driver, Prop Projections, Futures and much more. Gain access to both tools in our EDGE+Max tier and don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Between last week in Greensboro and this week in Jersey City, Im has been striking his irons in such a fantastic manner only to be let down by his putter. Despite losing strokes to the field around-the-green, the South Korean ranks fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. On the shoulders of strong ball-striking, I believe an outburst on the greens is right around the corner, making Im a strong matchup option for Monday.
Improving each day on the greens, Im just barely posted negative figures with the flat stick on Saturday. In a tie for 17th, Im is alongside Perez in the group at 10-under. However given the way that has game has looked recently, I am comfortable wagering on an uptick in putting in Round 4, knowing that tee-to-green will likely be sharp.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.