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The NFL playoffs are in full swing with four huge games this weekend.
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Last week, our picks went 4-2 against the spread, with the Bills and Chiefs covering with ease.
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This week we’re backing the Chiefs to come up big against the Bills in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game.
The NFL playoffs got off to a big start last weekend with the Chiefs and Bills both riding blowout wins to a spot in the divisional round.
Over six games, our picks went 4-2 against the spread, giving us a strong start to our postseason bets.
This week, we’re back at it, picking all four games against the spread as we barrel full-speed towards the Super Bowl.
Take a look below at our best bets against the spread for the divisional round of the playoffs (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 146-130-2
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over Tennessee Titans*
This is probably a heart-over-head play, so proceed with caution. The Titans earned the top seed in the AFC despite suffering a litany of injuries across their roster and look to be getting healthy at just the right time.
But ultimately, playoff games come down to quarterbacks in many cases, and Joe Burrow is cooking right now. The Titans might be able to contain the Bengals offense for a while, but eventually, Burrow is going to find Ja’Marr Chase for a game-changing play, and I’m not sure if the Titans have an answer for when it happens. Between that and the fact that the Bengals are getting the half-point hook on top of a field goal, I think Cincinnati can keep things close enough to cover the number, if not win outright.
Green Bay Packers* (-6) over San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers made the Cowboys look silly for three quarters last weekend before eventually sneaking out of Dallas with a win with the help of a running clock. But going on the road against the Packers is an entirely different story.
Despite his ill-timed interception late, Jimmy Garoppolo played admirably for San Francisco. Still, he is reportedly playing through an injured thumb and shoulder that might not stand up that well against the frigid cold of Lambeau Field, where the temperature should be in the teens with a wind chill pushing on 0.
Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
Of all the games this weekend, this is the one to wait to bet until right before kickoff. I’m backing the Rams, but that support is largely contingent on the health of the Buccaneers’ offensive line. Last week, Tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen suffered ankle injuries against the Eagles. Going into a game against a defensive force as dominant as Aaron Donald, missing one or possibly even two starters on the offensive line is less than ideal.
Chances are, we won’t know the full status of either player until just before game time. If Wirfs and Jensen are both good to go, I probably still lean towards the Rams but would play carefully. Otherwise, look for Donald to make life difficult for Tom Brady and company.
Kansas City Chiefs* (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills
This rematch of last year’s AFC Championship likely deserves to be considered the title game again this year, as whichever team prevails on Sunday will undoubtedly head into next week as the heavy favorite to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
Josh Allen and the Bills played a perfect game against the Patriots last week, and the Chiefs dismantled the Steelers in similarly simple fashion.
This game has all the makings of a classic, and is likely good enough to enjoy without a wager. I give the slight lean to the Chiefs because they have more experience in these spots, and it’s impossible to count out Patrick Mahomes no matter the deficit, but don’t expect the Bills to roll over. If both offenses come out firing, we should be in for quite a show.
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