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It was a long day for half of the field as some players completed nearly 36-holes on Friday. Of those in the unlucky bunch, Patrick Cantlay made the biggest move. A close friend of tournament host, Jack Nicklaus, Cantlay put together a flawless Friday.
After carding a 3-under 69 in his first-round, Cantlay came back strong less than an hour later. His second round 67 was highlighted by birdies on his final three holes. The 2019 Memorial champion used a balance approach in Round 2, gaining in all four statistical categories.
Paired with Cantlay was Jordan Spieth. It was a tale of two rounds for the Valero Texas Open winner. En route to a 4-over 76 in the morning, Spieth lost more than four-strokes tee-to-green, ranking near the bottom of the field in the category.
He flipped the script in the afternoon. Spieth went around Muirfield Village bogey-free in Round 2. Of those who finished their second round, Spieth led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. In total, it was a round of 5-under 67 for Spieth and he sits seven-strokes back of his Friday playing partner.
Much like yesterday, I am not in love with making additional selections without two rounds being completed. That being said, we can infer from the current composition of the leaderboard that the cut-line will be either 2-over or 3-over. We’ll steer clear of those at 3-over just in case they don’t make their way to the third round.
Updated Odds to Win (via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+225: Jon Rahm
+350: Patrick Cantlay
+900: Xander Schauffele
+1400: Scottie Scheffler
+2000: Collin Morikawa
+2200: Tony Finau
+3000: Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler
+3300: Carlos Ortiz, Justin Thomas, Max Homa
+5000: Viktor Hovland
Round 3 Plays (Odds via PointsBet):
Carlos Ortiz (+3300 to win):
I loved Ortiz coming into the week based off how he finished last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He struck the ball beautifully in his final round in Fort Worth and carried the ball-striking over to Muirfield Village.
It was a disappointing first-round from our perspective, having had Ortiz as a first-round leader selection, but the pieces of the puzzle appeared to be there. Outside of a couple loose drives, Ortiz turned in a solid performance, eventually carding a round of 1-under in the morning.
Of those who finished their second round, Ortiz ranked 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Highlighted by ranking 5th in SG: Approach, Ortiz once again rode hot iron-play to a fruitful round. He finished the day at 5-under in total and is only three-strokes behind the leaders. He’s proven in the past that he is capable of going toe to toe with elite players, as evidenced by his Houston Open victory over the likes of Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama.
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Jordan Spieth (+6600 to win):
If the lead stays at 8-under through the first two rounds, sitting only seven-strokes back is Spieth. The way he struck the ball in his second-round has me excited about his prospects heading into the weekend. The main threat to pushing the lead even further out is Rahm. He has five holes remaining, one of which is a par-5. He sits at 8-under alongside Cantlay, so I can’t imagine he gets too far ahead of the bunch, with 9-under being the lowest he gets to.
If you disagree and believe he’ll get to 10, maybe 11-under, I would suggest waiting on this number, but I don’t see that happening. Outside of the way he struck the ball Friday afternoon, the reason I love Spieth going forward is his recent play on Saturdays. Who could forget the 61 in Phoenix earlier in the year and his strong performance at Pebble Beach not long after.
I have long said that Saturdays are made for Spieth and there isn’t a better time to prove me right than tomorrow. He hasn’t putted all that well through the first two rounds and historically, he’s done his best work on fast, bent grass greens. With the rain out of the forecast, the greens should firm up to an extent and that should only play into Spieth’s hands with 36-holes to go.
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