We’re down to three games left in this NCAA tournament. And there’s plenty of drama still to be sorted through at the Final Four.
Kansas faces Villanova in the first game. In just about any other tournament, that would be the marquee semifinal game. But this year we get North Carolina and Duke meeting for the first time in the NCAA tournament, with Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski either going to the championship game or being sent to retirement by the Blue Devils’ biggest rival.
Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab and Scott Pianowski are back to take a look at some betting angles for the Final Four before you place your wagers at BetMGM:
Are you excited for this Final Four?
FS: I like it. To me, the NCAA tournament is at its best when the early rounds have some big upsets, there’s a good story or two to the Elite Eight, and then we get four strong teams in the Final Four. I’d never complain about having a Final Four with all four No. 1 seeds in it. So we had the great St. Peter’s story and some stunning upsets, but now we get four blue bloods in New Orleans. Perfect. I do like seeing teams that haven’t won before, like Baylor, get to the winner’s circle, but it’s hard to complain about these four programs battling for a title.
SP: It’s like a golf major, the idea is Cinderellas on Thursday but Supermen on Sunday. We have four storied programs, and every possible matchup looks interesting.
I especially love the shape of this Final Four because it’s loaded but it’s not entirely chalk. Maybe it’s just the value hunter in me, but I take a little satisfaction when the trampled favorite ruins a bunch of brackets. I was right next to you (in theory) rooting Wisconsin to spoil Kentucky’s undefeated season a few years ago. I was not sad to see Gonzaga lose. I like there to be some nuance to all this.
North Carolina vs. Duke is the dream matchup, straight from central casting. Nobody dared imagine this three weeks ago, but the Tar Heels have quietly put things together — they’re on a 16-3 run. That beatdown in Cameron doesn’t look like a fluke now. Call me crazy, but is there any chance a Duke loss to UNC would nudge Mike Krzyzewski to come back for one more year? You’d think he wouldn’t do that to Jon Scheyer, but sometimes a Mike Hopkins gets Boeheimed. (It’s not apples to apples, but I’m just playing with theoreticals here.) Imagine UNC sending Krzyzewski into retirement with two soul-crushing upsets from his most-hated rival.
It’s no surprise that three of these teams are led by strong head-coaching presences: Coach K, Bill Self, Jay Wright. (I like what I’ve seen from Hubert Davis, but it’s too early to say what he is and what he isn’t.) The NBA is a player’s game; the college game is, for better or for worse, a coach’s game. And Wright is going to need all of his magic tricks against Kansas, as a not-deep Villanova squad lost its second-best player, Justin Moore.
I don’t know how to hedge all my Villanova futures. The Wildcats getting here assured me a little profit, but of course I want to find the right hedge. It’s easy to hedge off a favorite, not so easy to hedge off an underdog.
Who are you betting in Villanova vs. Kansas?
FS: Since just about all the money is on Kansas it seems square to take the Jayhawks -4.5, but I like that side. Justin Moore’s injury for Villanova is tough to ignore. Villanova relies as heavily on its starters as just about any team in the nation. That’s a huge blow. And Kansas is coming off one of the most impressive halves of tournament basketball you’ll find, outscoring Miami 47-15 in the second half. Square or not, Kansas is my play.
If you had no futures riding on Nova, which side would you take?
SP: I lean Villanova plus the points but I’m not going to touch that. I think this is a stone under, though. Villanova has such a short rotation without Moore, which means Wright needs to shorten the game (and Villanova was a deliberate team to begin with). Wright would run four corners if the game didn’t have a shot clock. The Wildcats can’t make this a frenetic game, can’t make it a foul game, and won’t press unless backed into a corner. And so often teams struggle when asked to shoot in a bigger arena, like they’ll be facing this week. I know totals aren’t the sexiest picks in the world, but tail me on the under.
How about Duke vs. UNC?
FS: I’m kicking myself for not taking Duke a week ago when they were +1400 to win it all. It was right there in front of us, a team with four future NBA first-round picks and a Hall of Fame coach that was getting a great number. But I didn’t do it and now Duke is the favorite. UNC has been great to me this tournament and I think 4.5 points is too many. It’s not like we haven’t seen UNC beat Duke soundly (fairly, we saw Duke blow out North Carolina too), so I’ll try to land on the narrow runway of North Carolina covering but Duke winning.
SP: I’m kicking myself, too. When North Carolina spanked Duke in the Cameron finale for Coach K, I went on Yahoo Sportsbook and said buy the dip on Duke. But when Virginia Tech shredded the Blue Devils in the ACC tournament, I got cold feet. I started to wonder if the pressure of the Last Dance was too much for a very young Duke team. To be fair, Duke hasn’t always been sharp in the tournament. But they were an overlay, and I missed it.
Still, give me the Heels and the points. UNC is playing with house money, and the Tar Heels have probably been a top 12-15 team over the last two months. The Heels are not intimidated. St. Peter’s was probably a favorable draw for UNC, but its first three wins were more impressive than the road Duke had to navigate.
This game is coming down to the final few possessions. I must take the points. And it’s not like UNC is some little engine that could — it’s loaded with talent, too. Armando Bacot was first-team All-ACC, and Bacot, Caleb Love and R.J. Davis were McDonald’s All-Americans. While the first game might be a slog, I expect Duke and North Carolina to remind everyone why it’s the best rivalry in college basketball history.
Who’s your title pick?
FS: It’s funny, Kansas has had such great teams through the years and has only broken through for a title once since 1988. I never thought of this Kansas team as a championship squad until, well, this week. I wouldn’t say Kansas has had a great season — Duke has the higher ceiling — but it has been the one among the Final Four that never really had a lull. The Jayhawks have been consistently very good all season. I could regret not going with Duke here, because the Blue Devils’ talent edge among the four remaining teams is obvious, but I’ll go with Kansas to beat Duke on Monday night.
SP: Although I’m taking the points with North Carolina, like you I’ll try to thread the needle with the narrow Duke victory. And let’s call for Kansas to cut down the nets on Monday. I’d prefer to be wrong, as Villanova and North Carolina would be better for my wallet. But we have to keep the integrity of the exercise. The tournament remains undefeated. It has been a blast, as always.