Sweet 16: From Cooper Flagg to John Calipari to R.J. Davis

An offseason coaching carousel that spun at dizzying speed. A 2024 freshman class loaded with top-tier talent. Rising NIL budgets that enable fringe NBA prospects to earn more money staying in college than turning pro.

Add that all up and what do you get? One of the more compelling college basketball seasons in recent memory.

The new season tips off Monday with 19 of the preseason AP Top 25 in action and ends in San Antonio on the first Monday night in April. Below are the 16 players and coaches that we expect to define those five months of basketball.

1. Cooper Flagg

The last time a celebrated freshman siphoned mainstream attention away from the NBA or NFL, Zion Williamson was dunking his way onto America’s TV screens and social media feeds. This season, another must-see Duke freshman has a chance to entice casual college basketball fans to tune in before March.

Presumptive future No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg is the rare prospect who can impose his will on a game without dominating the ball. The 6-foot-9 forward is a relentless defender on and off the ball, a willing passer and an elite offensive rebounder. He is not yet the best in his class attacking off the bounce and creating shots for himself, but even that area of his game has come a long way in recent years.

Though Flagg won’t turn 18 until December, playing against older competition is unlikely to faze him. Not only has he played up an age group or two since grade school in AAU competition, he also famously held his own practicing against the NBA superstars on the gold medal-winning U.S. Olympic team last summer.

2. John Calipari

As John Calipari opens his debut season at Arkansas, the most intriguing question about the 65-year-old hall of famer is a simple one: Does he still have it?

Is Calipari capable of anything close to the stretch he produced during the first half of his tenure at Kentucky when the Wildcats won the 2012 national title and reached the Elite Eight or better six times in eight seasons? Or has his approach now gotten stale as it seemed during his last four seasons at Kentucky when fans grew frustrated and the Wildcats won just a single NCAA tournament game?

If Arkansas’ exhibition rout of preseason No. 1 Kansas is any indication, don’t bet against Calipari. After Arkansas’ 85-69 victory over the Hunter Dickinson-less Jayhawks, Kansas coach Bill Self said, “I actually think this team’s better than some of the ones he’s had at Kentucky.”

Especially impressive was the Arkansas backcourt of heralded freshman Boogie Fland and transfers DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis, which combined for 51 points. Gushed Self afterward, “That’ll be the best trio of guards we play against this year.”

3. Dan Hurley

He swatted aside the chance to become Kentucky’s next men’s basketball coach. He passed on the Los Angeles Lakers job after a whirlwind courtship. Now Dan Hurley is back at UConn trying to pull off a feat no men’s college basketball coach has achieved since the height of John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty: Three consecutive national championships.

The roster assembled by Hurley isn’t as formidable as last year’s, but don’t discount Hurley’s ability to build a contender out of a team with only one returning starter. Sharpshooting forward Alex Karaban pulled out of the NBA Draft to return for his junior season. Guards Hassan Diarra and Solomon Ball and big man Samson Johnson appear ready to shoulder more responsibility this season. And heralded freshman Liam McNeeley and Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney are the newcomers most likely to make an instant impact.

At best, UConn storms to a third consecutive national title, Hurley cements himself as college basketball’s premier coach and athletic director David Benedict has to pony up more cash to keep NBA teams from hiring Hurley away. At worst, UConn is merely pretty good, its run of March invincibility ends and the Huskies find out why three-peating is so hard with a single-elimination postseason format.

4. Mark Pope

When John Calipari fled to Arkansas on the eve of last season’s national title game, Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart responded with two big swings. He made Dan Hurley tell him no, and the UConn coach quickly elected to chase a three-peat in Storrs. Then he offered the job to Scott Drew and flew his family to Lexington, only to have the Baylor coach decide to pass on the opportunity.

Enter Mark Pope, the not-so-splashy “plan C” that Kentucky fans have slowly embraced despite a dearth of conference titles or NCAA tournament victories on his resume. Pope is one of Kentucky’s own, a team captain on Rick Pitino’s powerhouse 1996 national championship team and the first ex-Wildcat to coach his alma mater since 1985. He’s also the anti-Calipari in many ways, an innovator who runs a modern, 3-point-heavy offense, who is respected by his peers for his Xs-and-Os acumen and who prioritizes veteran transfers over one-and-dones.

The roster that Pope cobbled together this spring is littered with outside shooters. The top six minute getters figure to be transfers: Kerr Kriisa (West Virginia), Lamont Butler (San Diego State), Andrew Carr (Wake Forest), Jaxson Robinson (BYU), Amari Williams (Drexel) and Koby Brea (Dayton). It’s not as talented a core as some of Calipari’s top teams, but it’s top 25-quality with a chance to overachieve if Pope can get them playing cohesively.

5. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey

It’s no mystery why Rutgers is ranked in the AP preseason top 25 for just the second time in 45 years. The Scarlet Knights welcome a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans who both have flashed the talent to be selected in the top five of next year’s NBA Draft.

Harper is the more polished of the two prospects, a playmaking guard who excels creating advantages out of ball screens. Bailey is the more explosive athlete, a 6-foot-9 wing with prototypical NBA size, length and bounce but more room for improvement to become an efficient scorer and to take advantage of his tools defensively. The duo are the first top-50 recruits that Steve Pikiell has landed at Rutgers.

How much success Rutgers has this season will likely depend on how far Harper and Bailey can elevate an offense ranked 295th nationally last season. The Scarlet Knights also return guard Jeremiah Williams, who averaged a team-high 12.2 points in an injury-plagued season last year.

6. Kyle Neptune

Before Jay Wright abruptly retired in 2022, Villanova made nine straight NCAA tournaments, reached three Final Fours and won a pair of national titles. Wright hoped that his hand-picked successor could maintain that high standard, but Kyle Neptune so far hasn’t come close.

In his debut season, Villanova stumbled to a 17-17 record and finished sixth in the Big East. The following year, the Wildcats lost to the likes of Penn, Drexel and St. Joseph’s in non-league play and again finished tied for sixth in the Big East. Neither time did Villanova come close to contending for an NCAA tournament bid. If that happens again this season, Neptune likely won’t get another chance.

An NCAA bid appeared all but impossible for awhile after some key portal and draft departures stripped Villanova of much of its returning talent. Even after retaining leading scorer Eric Dixon for a fifth season and adding promising Miami transfer Wooga Poplar, the Wildcats will need to exceed modest preseason expectations to make this year’s field of 68.

7. Mike Woodson

In his first three seasons at his alma mater, Indiana coach Mike Woodson has consistently fallen short of preseason expectations. His first two teams finished far below rival Purdue in the Big Ten standings and won a single NCAA tournament game. Last year, the Hoosiers missed the NCAA tournament altogether, an outcome that produced enough handwringing externally for Indiana to send out a release confirming Woodson would return for the 2024-25 season.

Here’s the bad news for Woodson: He’s unlikely to get a fifth season in Bloomington unless he returns to the NCAA tournament this March. Here’s the good news for Woodson: He has built a roster with the talent to do that and more.

The preseason top-25 Hoosiers boast three returning starters and a heralded group of transfers featuring center Oumar Ballo (Arizona) and guards Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). Rice and Malik Reneau combined for 41 points and Indiana held Tennessee to 30.5% shooting in a 66-62 exhibition victory last Sunday.

8. Mark Sears

As Mark Sears went through the NBA Draft process last spring, he kept an eye on the roster that Alabama coach Nate Oats was putting together. He saw that Grant Nelson, Latrell Wrightsell and Jarin Stevenson were returning, that Oats landed one of the nation’s top transfer classes, that two five-star freshmen were also set to arrive.

“I was like, yeah, this roster could contend for the national championship,” Sears told reporters in Tuscaloosa last month, “and I wanted to be part of that.”

Sears already helped Alabama basketball make its first Final Four last spring, averaging more than 24 points in five NCAA tournament games. The 6-foot-1 preseason All-American has a chance to lead a loaded Alabama team two victories further this season and cement himself as the player who proved Alabama was more than just a football school.

9. R.J. Davis

Two words from RJ Davis last spring elevated North Carolina into the national title mix this year. The reigning ACC player of the year announced that he was pulling out of the NBA Draft last May with the simple Instagram caption: “I’m back.”

While North Carolina has perimeter talent aplenty surrounding Davis this season, he’s the player that the Tar Heels will lean on most. Davis, college basketball’s lone returning 2023-24 first-team All-American, averaged 21.2 points and shot 39.8% from 3-point range last year and guided North Carolina to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

The return of Davis and Sears highlights another emerging trend in college basketball’s NIL era. It’s very difficult for an undersized scoring guard to become more than a fringe NBA prospect. Those players are learning what many back-to-the-basket 7-footers already have: Their earning potential in college might meet or exceed what they can make on an NBA two-way contract or in the G-League.

10. Jon Scheyer

Since replacing Mike Krzyzewski two-plus years ago, Jon Scheyer has unequivocally proven that he can attract top-tier talent just as well as his legendary predecessor. Now Scheyer faces pressure to show that he can parlay those recruiting victories into conference titles and Final Four appearances.

Two years ago, Duke finished third in the ACC, earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and failed to make it out of the opening weekend. Last year, Duke caught a huge break, needing only to beat Jamal Shead-less Houston and double-digit seed NC State to advance to the Final Four. The Blue Devils edged the Cougars, only to collapse in the second half against their in-state rivals in the Elite Eight.

Somewhere else, back-to-back 27-win seasons, an ACC tournament title and an Elite Eight appearance would have eliminated all doubt whether Scheyer can handle the job. At Duke, questions persist. With the arrival of Cooper Flagg and plenty of youthful and veteran talent surrounding him, this year could be Scheyer’s best chance to answer those questions.

11. Great Osobor and Coleman Hawkins

The highest-paid players in college basketball this season could be a pair of coveted transfers. Great Osobor reportedly received $2 million in NIL money to follow coach Danny Sprinkle from Utah State to Washington. Coleman Hawkins then reportedly raked in slightly more than that in return for pulling out of the NBA Draft and transferring to Kansas State.

One of the questions that will shape next offseason’s transfer market is whether Washington or Kansas State sees a return on their seven-figure investments. Osobor, a 6-foot-8 low-post scorer and double-double machine at Utah State last season, figures to be the interior focal point for a Huskies team transitioning to the Big Ten. Hawkins, a versatile frontcourt weapon, hopes to make an even bigger impact at Kansas State than he did last season at Illinois when he averaged a career-high 12.1 points with 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per game.

12. Pat Kelsey

Louisville at last showed embattled coach Kenny Payne mercy last March when it fired him after two unfathomably miserable seasons. It would have been cruel to let Payne continue any longer in a role he clearly couldn’t handle.

Payne went 12-52 at the helm of one of college basketball’s most tradition-rich programs. Worse yet, he was quick to blame his predecessors or his players and slow to accept responsibility for his inability to recruit a better roster or get through to the guys he did have.

Tasked with picking up the pieces is Kelsey, an energetic, well-respected up-and-comer who has won a combined six conference titles at Winthrop and Charleston but has yet to win an NCAA tournament game. Kelsey did not inherit a single returning rotation player from Payne, yet somehow still assembled one of the ACC’s most experienced rosters.

Among the key additions: Terrence Edwards, the Sun Belt Player of the Year who led James Madison to a program-best 32 wins last season; Chucky Hepburn, a three-year starter and All-Big Ten defender at Wisconsin; and Kasean Pryor, who helped lead South Florida to a surprise American Athletic Conference league title. At worst, Louisville should be competitive again. If the talent coalesces, a return to the NCAA tournament isn’t out of the question.

13. Alex Karaban

Had he remained in last June’s NBA Draft, Alex Karaban might have come off the board as early as the late first round and almost certainly would have been the fifth UConn player selected. The 6-foot-8 stretch forward instead chose to return to the Huskies and spearhead Dan Hurley’s chase of a potential national title three-peat.

Karaban was an ultra-efficient complementary piece on UConn’s first two championship teams, exactly the role he’ll probably play for a long time in the NBA. It’s easy to see him cracking an NBA team’s rotation by knocking down spot-up jumpers, moving without the ball and providing dependable on-ball and help defense.

For this year’s UConn team, the question is whether he can do more than that and develop into an offensive focal point. Any growth Karaban could show making plays off the dribble could be key for the Huskies’ title hopes and for improving his NBA draft stock.

14. Hunter Dickinson

Hunter Dickinson might be the captain of this year’s “Wait, he’s still in college?” team. In a previous era, the two-time All-American would have turned pro after his sophomore year at Michigan in order to maximize his earning potential. With the advent of the NIL, Dickinson has chosen to stay in college and further develop while making comparable money to what he would have received overseas or in the G-League.

Dickinson’s return for a fifth collegiate season is among the biggest reasons that Kansas opens as No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25. The 7-foot-1, 260-pound center averaged 17.9 points and a career-best 10.9 rebounds for a Kansas team that struggled with injuries and lacked any semblance of depth by the end of the season. This year’s Jayhawks shouldn’t have that problem with fellow returning starters DaJuan Harris and KJ Adams, three celebrated transfers and a pair of top-50 freshmen set to complement Dickinson.

15. Doug Gottlieb

Excuse Doug Gottlieb if he doesn’t understand the fuss about him continuing to host a national radio show five days a week even after Wisconsin-Green Bay hired him as its men’s basketball coach last spring. Last year, Gottlieb worked his radio show, co-hosted a streaming show for Stadium, did college basketball play-by-play for Compass Media and coached an AAU program.

“Now I only have two jobs,” Gottlieb quipped to Dan Patrick in May.

Between the radio show and his lack of coaching experience at the college level, Gottlieb’s hire might have been the most outside-the-box move of the most recent coaching cycle. Gottlieb is the son of Bob Gottlieb, who coached Milwaukee from 1975 to 1980. His brother is an assistant coach at Grand Canyon. He himself played point guard for Notre Dame and Oklahoma State before transitioning into sports media.

Now Gottlieb has a chance to prove he can win while following a Steve Kerr-esque path into coaching. As he said when he was hired, “If somebody’s not laughing at your dreams, you’re not dreaming big enough.”

16. Trey Kaufman-Renn

As Purdue seeks to figure out its post-Zach Edey identity, the biggest reason for optimism is a player who has long been overshadowed by the skilled 7-foot-4 giant. Matt Painter says he’d be “shocked” if forward Trey Kaufman-Renn doesn’t evolve from promising role player to all-league standout now that more playing time is available for him.

In 16.9 minutes per game playing behind Edey and beside him last season, the mobile 6-foot-9 Kaufman-Renn tallied 6.4 points and 4.0 rebounds. Look for the junior to double those numbers at minimum this season by running pick-and-rolls with point guard Braden Smith and by exploiting matchups against smaller forwards or slow, plodding centers.

Kaufman-Renn is one of the most obvious breakout candidates in college basketball this year. Other potential breakout players include Lithuanian big man Motiejus Krivas of Arizona and sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau of North Carolina

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