Storylines to watch in Week 11: Russell Wilson & George Pickens are a match made in fantasy football heaven

The day I long feared was coming, finally came.

My sons challenge me to play video games all the time. And I get it. Since I’m dad, I’m the target. But I’ve spent more hours gaming than they’ve been on this earth. I (think I) know more. And yet, I found myself staring at a third-place finish in a game of “Super Smash Bros.” I’m pretty sure my controller had significant drift to it, but I’ll hold the L.

There’s always more nuance or context we need to consider. Like, for me, I should’ve realized my boys were honing their skills before daring me to a match. Watching Week 10 felt similar. I would’ve thought Joe Flacco generating multiple turnovers would’ve brought Anthony Richardson back into our lives. I was wrong. Russell Wilson can’t possibly keep getting away with moonballs to keep the Steelers offense going. Yep, wrong again.

However, it’s more about what we can pull from the top storylines to help us make lineup decisions. So, with a month before the playoffs, let’s dive into the headlines to tease out the takeaways we’ll need for Week 11.

Nico Collins: the savior of the Texans’ offense?

My knee-jerk reaction to C.J. Stroud’s second interception here was Nico Collins would’ve come down with the ball:

Well, maybe my intrusive thought was more coping than anything else. Sure, Collins has eight inches on Tank Dell. But Stroud lofting the ball eliminates any debate about his WR’s physical stature. Plus, even a cursory look at the Texans’ QB would show he hasn’t played his best ball over the last month.

• EPA per DB: 0.05 (Weeks 1-4), -0.15 (Weeks 7-10)

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: +0.6%, -8.0%

• Explosive Pass Rate: 17.8%, 13.6%

With Collins (and Stefon Diggs), Stroud had two top-10 finishes in the first month of the season. His 263.5 passing yards per game were the fifth-most of any passer. However, hindsight being 20/20, there were warning signs.

Stroud faced pressure on more than 25.0% of his dropbacks in every game. Defenses keyed in on Houston’s ailing offensive line and sent five or more rushers to keep Stroud from getting comfortable. Only Baker Mayfield (42.6% blitz rate) saw more defenders trying to break through the line. We dismissed the concerns as Stroud continued to make magic on third down. But now, he has fewer options downfield. And the shifts in offensive play-calling have made his situation even worse.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 54.3% (Weeks 1-4), 44.9% (Weeks 7-10)

• Early-Down Rushing Success Rate: 40.0%, 34.2%

• Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6, 9.7

Joe Mixon’s workload has increased from 22.5 to a whopping 26.8 touches per game. However, the Texans’ run-blocking skills (or lack thereof) have cut his yards per touch by 16.3%. As Houston has gotten farther behind the sticks, Stroud’s target depth has climbed, increasing his volatility as a passer. And the offensive line woes have only increased. Stroud’s pressure rate has been above 40.0% in his last four starts, and he’s taken multiple sacks in each (eight[!] in Week 10). So, adding a WR even as good as Collins might not look like a boost unless he plans on getting into a three-point stance.

But he was still the WR2 overall in PPG for a reason.

The Texans used quick-game concepts (passes with an average time to throw under 2.5 seconds) on 44.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-4. Unsurprisingly, Collins led the team in targets on these concepts (23) at a clip of 2.97 yards per route run. Put another way, he turned those 23 looks into 14 first downs. That was while also creating explosives on 45.0% of the other attempts that came his way. We can’t project when Stroud’s protection will improve, but with his WR1 back (and advantageous matchups against Dallas and Jacksonville on the schedule), we should see the duo back in the top-12 discussion soon.

The winds of change are blowing in Chicago

Jaxon Smith-Njigba warned us about Shane Waldron. However, it took the vibes hitting rock bottom for the Bears to make a change. Normally, I’d say a switch on offense is good. Just look at the Saints. But for Chicago, there’s more than one issue keeping my optimism at bay.

Nate does an excellent job of highlighting Williams’s strengths above. We won’t see it in the boxscore, but the rookie QB already has command of the offense before the snap (heavy emphasis on “before the snap”). Williams can recognize defensive alignments and shift the protection (which sometimes backfires) to keep the offense moving. And yet, even in that video, we see one of the problems plaguing the Bears.

Williams having to create out of structure has become something he needs to do at some point in every drive. Of his classmates, ehe’s seen the most blitzes in obvious passing situations. However, the offensive line isn’t the (only) root cause.

To go with a high-pressure rate, Williams takes longer to release the ball. His 2.85-sec average time to throw in obvious passing situations ranks as the ninth-slowest. The delay indicates he’s not operating the offense as designed. And, given how his receivers have reacted to their QB being under duress, there’s a disconnect between Williams and the play-calling.

Even on the two-man route above, the receivers are well-covered far past the sticks. Williams has Cole Kmet as a checkdown for minimal gain but opts to wait for the more difficult throw. Even when the situation is neutral, he’s in survival mode. But it’s not as if, when the play breaks down, we get a better version of Williams.

• EPA per Play (on +2.5 sec throws): -0.23 (33rd of 36 qualifiers – min. 120 dropbacks)

• Scramble Rate: 10.5% (16th)

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 31.5% (4th)

His classmates have known how to respond to pressure since they became starters. Jayden Daniels has scrambled 32 times (most of the rookies) when defenders get to him. Bo Nix (16) and Drake Maye (14) have also limited negative plays by using their feet. Williams (12) has held his ground to the team’s detriment. And with Chicago’s upcoming schedule, we’d need more than a coaching change to inspire some confidence.

If one of the Bears’ WRs were the focal point of the offense, I’d have them as a FLEX option through their gauntlet of NFC matchups over the next five weeks (with the 49ers in Week 14). But all three earned six targets last week. Keenan Allen’s slot role looks safe, but his 2.6 yards of separation are a career low. With multiple parts of the offense needing to improve, leaving Bears’ pass-catchers on your bench is the best move until we see things turn around.

George Pickens is unstoppable with Russell Wilson

George Pickens’ status as Pittsburgh’s WR1 was never in question. The Steelers sent Diontae Johnson down to Carolina. Pickens’ only competition was third-rounder Roman Wilson and FA cast-offs Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek. So, through six weeks, seeing Pickens with top-10 utilization metrics wasn’t a shock.

• Target Share: 28.9% (3rd)

• Air Yard Share: 46.4% (5th)

• Yards per Route Run: 2.28 (8th)

While still making big plays downfield, Pickens bore all the marks of a top-12 receiver. But his fantasy scores told a different story. At 9.9 PPR PPG, Pittsburgh’s WR1 was no better than Christian Kirk (9.9), aka Jacksonville’s WR2. Ironically, Wan’Dale Robinson (13.1) stood head and shoulders above the Steelers’ playmaker. However, Pickens’ glaring deficiency was the same in both cases: touchdowns. Despite all the explosive catches, he was yet to find the end zone.

Luckily, all it took was a well-timed QB change to solve that problem.

Admittedly, it’s only been three games, and Pickens has scored in two of the three. But there’s no denying Russell Wilson’s impact on the offense.

• Passing Yards per Game: 245.7 (Wilson), 184.3 (Fields)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.04

• Offensive Yards per Drive: 32.3, 28.8

To be clear, nothing’s changed for Pickens. He’s still seeing seven looks per contest and has amassed over 40.0% of the air yards. But Pittsburgh has accrued more yards, run more red-zone plays and, subsequently, scored more points with Russell Wilson under center. It’d be easy to say Pickens is just riding Mr. Unlimited’s wave of production. However, their two skill sets are the perfect match.

Play-action shot plays to the boundary are Wilson’s superpower. Catching them are Pickens’. Since Week 7, the two (along with contributions from the ancillary options) have moved the ball on opposing defenses one explosive gain after the next. Mix in some tough runs from Najee Harris, and you’ve got an unbeatable offense. But I’ll put a slight damper on any long-term expectations.

Per TruMedia, Wilson has generated 114 passing yards on perimeter throws (from the sideline to three yards in). That’s the seventh-highest mark on the season amongst all starters. He’s gotten there in three starts. But OK, let’s expand the aperture to go from the numbers to the sideline (nine-yard distance). Here, you’ll find 72.6% of Wilson’s passing yards. For some QBs, we have to gauge their margin for error qualitatively. In Wilson’s case, we already know it’s nine yards on either side of the field.

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Expecting any three-game trend to continue is a tough ask. Regardless, Pickens is a low-end WR1 for the rest of the season. If Wilson regresses, Pickens’ targets and air yards give him a viable floor. And with matchups against the Ravens’ and Bengals’ secondaries on the schedule, we should be ranking him inside the top 12 for the foreseeable future.

Atlanta’s RB1 is Bijan Robinson, right?

I should’ve left the “right?” part off the section header. There’s no debate here. Bijan Robinson is the RB1 for Atlanta. Watching him play emphasizes how his vision, burst and power work in tandem to carry defenders into the end zone. Accordingly, his advanced metrics align with the tape.

• Rushing Success Rate: 54.2% (1st out of 18 qualifiers – min 50.0% rushing share)

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 23.2% (4th)

• Adjusted Yards after Contact per Attempt: 3.6 (10th)

On the one hand, we want efficient RBs. Whether their effectiveness is a product of run-blocking or their intrinsic abilities, we can expect them to make the most of their work. On the flip side, sometimes we’d rather take projectable workloads. And 19.6 touches per game (seventh-most) is an RB I’d want on my roster.

But then I see baffling personnel changes in high-leverage situations that make me pause.

No, Robinson wasn’t injured. He hadn’t run the ball down to the one-yard line on an explosive play, either. And yet, OC Zac Robinson saw fit to ram Tyler Allgeier into the Saints’ defensive front three straight times. What made the decision even better was Robinson coming in on fourth down and scoring. However, I won’t let a few goal-line carries deter me from valuing Robinson as a high-end RB1.

• Target Share (last five games): 17.5% (2nd)

• Yards per Route Run: 1.71 (3rd)

• Receiving Yards per Game: 36.0 (4th)

I talked last week about thresholds for top-three RBs. You’re either The Juggernaut as a runner or earn work as a rusher and receiver. Despite Allgeier causing a panic every few weeks, Robinson now finds himself in good company. He’s averaged 5.2 targets per game while maintaining a hold on 56.0% of the totes. And for those wondering about his goal-line usage, Robinson did take all of the touches from inside the 5-yard line back in Week 7. Besides, with Atlanta’s upcoming schedule, Robinson’s receiving work will be the edge that keeps him in the top 12.

• Week 11 at DEN: 9th-fewest rushing YPG allowed to RBs, 4th-most PPR points allowed to RBs

• Week 13 vs LAC: 7th-fewest, 12th-most

• Week 14 at MIN: 3rd-fewest, 11th-most

The matchups lend themselves to a multi-faceted RB. Before you ask, Allgeier has earned more than one target in a game just twice this year and hasn’t seen a pass thrown his way since Week 7. Allgeier still has contingent value, but it’s Robinson’s backfield. And with his dual-threat ability, he’ll stay as an RB1 for the rest of the season.

Christian McCaffrey came back, but all of his fantasy points didn’t (yet)

I understand a lot of gamers were waiting two and a half months for last Sunday. Christian McCaffrey’s return was one of the top storylines heading into the weekend. I’d be willing to bet fantasy seasons hinged on a strong debut. However, 16.7 PPR points didn’t feel that great.

Bucky Irving (17.7 points) and Kareem Hunt (17.0), two guys off the waiver wire, scored more. Actually, both Tampa RBs had higher scores than the consensus 1.01. However, there’s more to take away from CMC’s first game back than the box score.

Let’s start with his rushing workload.

McCaffrey’s 13 carries were good for 68.0% of the backfield opportunities. Behind him, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo combined for two rushing attempts. Otherwise, it was the McCaffrey show as if we were back in 2023. And don’t worry. The 39 yards (or 3.0 yards per carry) caught my eye, too. But there’s some context to his day as a runner.

Pause the video above at 0:01 seconds and count how many defenders are at or within five yards of the line of scrimmage. I counted eight, and it wasn’t an uncommon sight for the 49ers. McCaffrey ran into stacked boxes on 53.8% of his attempts. On the season, 32 other RBs have had similar touch shares and comparable stacked box rates. As a group, they had an average 40.0% success rate on 4.3 yards per carry. McCaffrey had a 30.8% success rate while averaging 3.0 YPC. Given his time away, I’m willing to give him a week to get back on track.

Besides, his pass-catching acumen is what stole the show anyway.

McCaffrey was the 49ers’ WR2 on Sunday with seven targets. That was more than what Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall (i.e., the actual WRs) saw. But it’s not just the number of looks CMC got but the type and their effect on the offense.

• Passing Success Rate (on early downs): 52.5% (Weeks 1-9), 70.8% (Week 10)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.57

• Yards per Passing Play: 9.8, 11.6

As shown above, HC Kyle Shanahan can send McCaffrey deep down the field on a wheel route to get him the ball. He doesn’t have to be a short-area option. Subsequently, the passing game moves more efficiently, takes more pressure off Brock Purdy and sets them up for more manageable third downs.

With McCaffrey back, San Francisco could rotate in more of its exotic looks to pick up chunk gains. It’s not just about what McCaffrey can do with the ball in his hand. But what his presence forces defenses to honor. So, despite the lack of big results, the workload is a strong indicator of San Francisco getting its RB1 back, and the production will soon follow.

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