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With Trey Lance likely to make his first start since Week 5 this Sunday, Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don take a look to the stats to decide whether or not to start the rookie QB in fantasy.

Video Transcript

MATT HARMON: How about Trey Lance? Will Trey Lance be in championship lineups? And I think the one thing– listen, you know the Niners better than almost anybody out there, Dalton. How much credence do you give this Kyle Shanahan thing about like, oh, Jimmy G might play on Sunday. He might play.

DALTON DEL DON: I guess not much now. He didn’t look like he much came from practice this time today. Fantasy points our guy, our PT Edwin he says if it’s a grade 3 sprain, there’s no way he’s playing. So they just brought someone up from the practice squad or signed a quarterback. Tyler Bray, I believe. So signs are pointing to Trey Lance. I don’t know exactly why Shanahan’s trying this gamesmanship. But maybe he really is holding out hope for Jimmy G. But he did return to throw that touchdown on the final drive with the thumb injury. But it sounds like it’s significant and it tore something off the bone. So get ready for Trey Lance. I mean, I’m excited. Fantasy wise, just the running. He’s reportedly been impressed, recovered from that finger injury he suffered in the Arizona game and in the knee sprain. But who knows? Obviously he’s so raw and just looked just totally not quite ready as far as the passer the last time we saw him. But man, it’ll be fun fantasy wise given his rushing upside.

MATT HARMON: Yeah, like you mentioned the rushing upside is huge. Yeah, he actually averages 3.8 yards after contact per attempt. The quarterbacks that are in that ecosystem there, Josh Allen, 3.5, Taysom Hill– quarterback adjacent Taysom Hill– 3.9, Cam Newton, 3.4. Actually Justin Fields, 3.7 as well. With Trey Lance, if he’s starting, obviously I think you’re very tempted to start him against the Texans’ run defense that’s been trash. Elijah Mitchell might come back. He’s potentially– I think he had a limited practice on Wednesday. He could come back for this game against a bad run defense. But what about the pass catchers? What about Deebo, what about Aiyuk, what about Kittle? Because last time we saw– listen, this offense was very different last time we saw them with Trey Lance starting.

But this has been the thing we were all scared of all year, does the volume floor bottom out with Trey Lance back there?

DALTON DEL DON: I have Lance ranked as my eighth fantasy QB this week just because of the running, man. Maybe if I’m too aggressive, then he should be 12. He should be starting for everyone given his rushing ability. It’s just a cheat code. If Taysom Hill can put up those constantly, I think Lance can with weapons of Deebo and Aiyuk and Kittle all healthy. You know, and Trent Williams healthy. I mean, I do like the setup for him if he’s starting here. Fire him up. It doesn’t have to be a super flex league. I think right away there’s good fantasy upside and in DFS, he’s the minimum in Yahoo. So, I mean, the only counter there is like if you’re in a tournament. And maybe he’ll be too highly rostered. Because why would you not? I mean, the setup is so good there. But I don’t know what it means for the pass catchers. But I would still start all three of them. Because Aiyuk, he’s still a top 30 receiver even with the uncertainty.

And some people would say Trey Lance is a stronger arm and maybe they’ll go more downfield. And obviously Deebo gets rushes and Kittle coming off a quieter game, you’re still obviously firing him up. So yeah, I’m excited to see what happens here. And what’s going to end up happening is going back to a busted Garoppolo out there. Shanahan will end up and then disappointing all fantasy managers, who are finally excited after waiting all year for this to finally happen.

MATT HARMON: You’re right. No matter what, you watch this offense with Jimmy G. And as efficient as Jimmy G is in like an EPA per play perspective, you’re just like, oh my god, there’s so much meat left on the bone. There’s nothing deep outside the numbers. Not at all. I’m really hoping Trey Lance gets to be that guy. Probably next year, but potentially even this year. I mean, I’m really hoping he is the Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy G’s like low grade Alex Smith. And maybe he’s the low grade Patrick Mahomes. I’m going to say very, very low grade. Because that’s just being conservative about it. But man, I mean, apparently Trey Lance had his best month of practice. So there is that.

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