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It was a moving day for some, but not all at the Renaissance Club. As scoring conditions once again presented themselves, Thomas Detry was the man to answer the call. The former Fighting Illini has had more than his fair share of close calls on the European Tour, yet still remains winless. Hoping to breakthrough in a big way, it was the Belgian’s long game that led him to success on Saturday.
Perhaps drawing a break, Detry’s drive on the reachable par-4 5th bounced over the greenside bunker. Settling inside of 15-feet, Detry calmly knocked in his putt for eagle to get to 13-under for the tournament. He would tack on birdies on the par-5 7th and the par-5 10th, eventually carding a round of 3-under 68, good for a share of the 54-hole lead by day’s end.
Sitting aside him at the top of the leaderboard at 14-under is Matthew Fitzpatrick. After a fast start that included an unlikely birdie on his first hole of the day, Fitzpatrick struggled during the middle part of his round. However, a birdie on the par-4 13th kick started his back-nine as he added birdies on the 16th and 17th allowing him to post a round of 4-under 67.
Fitzpatrick, combined with his countrymen on the pitch, have the potential to make this Sunday one for the history books in England. However, he’ll have to contend with the reigning U.S. Open champion who had a mixed bag on Saturday.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the play of world No. 1, Jon Rahm. Seemingly perfect tee-to-green through the first two rounds, the Spaniard had struggled from short-range on the greens. Those struggles continued in the front-half of his round, carding multiple bogeys and missing birdie opportunities in part to the putter.
Standing on the 4th tee at 2-over for his round, Rahm flipped the switch. The co-54-hole leader played his next 12 holes in 5-under before a poor bogey on the easy par-5 16th. Sitting just one-stroke behind Detry and Fitzpatrick at 13-under, Rahm remains the betting favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook at +175.
As for us, it was a rather disappointing moving day. Justin Thomas and Ian Poulter, who were paired together, carded forgettable rounds of 1-under. Ryan Palmer and Padraig Harrington were a bit better, but leave us with just an outside chance for an outright winner going into tomorrow. Instead of chasing a potential winner, we’ll hope for the best and look to a proven player to have a great final round.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+175: Jon Rahm
+250: Matthew Fitzpatrick
+450: Thomas Detry
+1100: Lucas Herbert
+1500: Scottie Scheffler
+2500: Xander Schauffele
+4000: Min Woo Lee
+5000: Lee Westwood, Justin Thomas
+6000: Victor Perez
+6600: Wade Ormsby
+7000: Ryan Palmer
+8000: Padraig Harrington
+9000: Tommy Fleetwood, Adrian Otaegui
+10000: Ian Poulter, Alexander Bjork, Robert MacIntyre
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Justin Thomas (+155 to finish inside the top-10):
Consider this an insurance policy on our outright play on the world No. 3. It’s honestly been a very strange week for Thomas. If you told me on Thursday that he would rank first in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee, I would have taken that to the bank with a smile on my face.
While that is the case, it’s Thomas’s irons that have let us down, something I certainly was not expecting. You would think they turn around eventually and potentially in a big way. When analyzing the data, it’s not like he had just one poor round that skewed his statistics, they’ve gradually been bad.
I’m willing to wager they come back to normalcy tomorrow in the final round. Sitting five-strokes behind the leaders, it’s unlikely he has enough in the tank to chase down Detry and Fitzpatrick. However, he stands just one-stroke outside of the top-10 and at plus money, and is a wager I’ll surely make and twice on Sunday.
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