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With the John Deere Classic taking place here stateside, our attention – and money – will turn to the tournament being held across the pond. The Renaissance Club will play host to the Abrdn (Aberdeen) Scottish Open as the world’s best prepare for next week’s Open Championship. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy will welcome a large contingent of Americans to North Berwick, as four out of the top-five players in the world will make the venture to Scotland’s east coast.
This year’s Scottish Open will be the third edition held at this Tom Doak design and the second in the last nine months. Since 2019, we’ve seen two tournaments on two completely different ends of the spectrum. The reason being not only the weather, but also the time of year. If I had to guess, this year’s tournament should play closer the 2019 adaptation where birdies were abundant. This is all weather dependent as the forecast looks rather pleasant as of now, but always has the potential to change.
Last year in 2020, due to COVID-19 complications, not only were no prominent Americans in the field, but the tournament took place in October. Cold weather and heavy rains were the story of the week, as wily European veterans like Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, and Padraig Harrington all made runs at the title.
It wasn’t meant to be for them as a Sunday 64 from Aaron Rai was enough to force a playoff with Tommy Fleetwood, who had to make a birdie of his own on the 72nd hole to match Rai’s score of 11-under. In the playoff, both players missed the green in regulation. Rai was able to get up-and-down, while Fleetwood, who led the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green for the week, did not, thus handing the trophy to Rai.
2019 was a different story. With a wet golf course and calm conditions, a complete birdie-fest unfolded. Except for a few moments in the second round, the Scottish summer cooperated as it rarely does. Plenty of players found themselves in the mix, such as Erik van Rooyen and Justin Thomas, however by tournament’s end it was Bernd Wiesberger and Benjamin Herbert battling it out, with Wiesberger getting the better of the Frenchman on the third hole of the playoff.
2021 should surely provide another intriguing tournament as playoffs have been running rampant, at least here in the United States. With restrictions lifted, many PGA Tour staples will be taking the early flight over to Scotland in preparation for the year’s final major next week at Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, England.
Those household names include the likes of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas. Some of the young guns must have heeded the advice of those as Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, and Sam Burns will also be making the voyage over.
It feels weird to not pool Morikawa into the “young guns” category, as he is still just 24-years-old and younger than the trio previously mentioned. Through his experiences and his words, Morikawa comes across older than his age, much like Jordan Spieth did when he blossomed in front of our very eyes. However, this week, there’s a chance his youth gets the best of him as this will be his first time playing in Scotland. In a recent interview, he was quoted as saying, and I am paraphrasing here, that he hopes his ball-striking will be able to travel the globe. At PointsBet Sportsbook, the 2020 PGA champion is +1200 to win this week and the third betting favorite, behind only Rahm at +650 and Schauffele at +1100.
Yet, when looking to next week at Royal St. George’s, Morikawa is all the way down to +2800. With some unknown to how he’ll take to golf in this area of the world, this week will be telling. While I wouldn’t necessarily classify the Renaissance Club as true links golf, it’s certainly a step in the right direction for Morikawa. Both measure in the 7,200-7,300 yards range and while the Renaissance plays to a par-71, Royal St. George’s is a par-70.
If he goes well at the Scottish Open, which wouldn’t be all that surprising, Morikawa’s number for the Open Championship has the potential to fall and fall fast. He has been making a habit of contending in major championships and will attempt to become the first debutant winner of the Open Championship since Ben Curtis in 2003 at, you guessed it, Royal St. George’s.
To Win (Odds via PointsBet):
Justin Thomas (+1600 to win):
With many of the world’s best in the field, my eyes are drawn to the world No. 3. Recently, there are few Americans who have been up to the links golf challenge quite like Thomas. The creativity, the precision, the strategy, all of these aspects point to Thomas for me this week at The Renaissance Club.
We haven’t seen Thomas since the U.S. Open where he found himself with an opportunity to capture his second major championship with only nine-holes to go. However, like many, he wilted down the stretch as a wild tee-shot on the 10th hole led to a double-bogey and spoiled his championship hopes.
With plenty of time off to refine his game, primarily his putting, Thomas now returns to North Berwick for the first time since 2019. In his first appearance in this event, Thomas took to the Doak design just as you would expect from a world class player. At 18-under, Thomas fell four-strokes off the eventual pace, but still was able to finish inside the top-10, a quality outing nonetheless.
Some may be weary to back Americans this week and rather side with the European Tour’s finest. With Mickelson in 2013 and Fowler in 2015 proving that it is possible to come over and win, Thomas knows his best stuff should be enough, outside of a couple players (i.e., Rahm). In what will likely turn into a tee-to-green contest, Thomas is amongst the best in the world in said category.
Albeit in different conditions, neither Fleetwood nor Rai putted themselves to last year’s playoff. Both ranked outside the top-35 in SG: Putting for the week which should be music to the ears of Thomas as the flat stick has been holding him back, to say the least.
Bernd Wiesberger (+3300 to win):
The winner of the first Scottish Open held at The Renaissance Club, Wiesberger is in the midst of a bit of a resurgence himself these days and is seemingly trending towards a second Scottish Open title. On the heels of a strong performance at The Masters and a five-stroke victory at the Made in Denmark, Wiesberger was a trendy sleeper pick for the U.S. Open. While things didn’t work out for him and his backers at Torrey Pines, the pieces of his game were there.
Posting +4.2 SG: Approach through only two rounds, Wiesberger returned to Europe knowing his game was just fine. In a tie for fifth, Wiesberger finished the BMW International Open in Munich in a log jam at 13-under, six-strokes behind eventual winner, Viktor Hovland.
If not for a balky putter, Wiesberger may have been able to put more of a scare into Hovland. Tee-to-green he was exquisite, finishing third in the field in said category, thanks to yet another strong performance with his irons. That combined with a scoring average of 3.77 on the par-4’s and the recipe that led Wiesberger to a quality finish in Germany could very well do the same in Scotland.
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Ian Poulter (+4000 to win):
It’s officially crunch time for the European Ryder Cup stalwart. Sitting 52nd on the European Team standings, Poulter is on the outside looking in for the 2021 Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits in just a few months. Yes, he has Captain Padraig Harrington in his corner, who has been quoted saying, “Poulter and Sergio are two guys who have Ryder Cup records that deserve more consideration than anybody when it comes to playing, as does Martin Kaymer.”
Knowing Poulter, he doesn’t want it to come to that. He will need to begin to make up some ground and I couldn’t envision a better spot on the calendar for him to do so than the Scottish Open. In two appearances at the Renaissance Club, Poulter has been in the weekend mix both times.
Last October, Poulter sat in a tie for second at the 54-hole mark, only to finish in a tie for sixth. In July of 2019, Poulter finished in a tie for 14th alongside fellow countrymen, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Matt Wallace at 17-under.
Clearly comfortable in both settings, whether it’s more of a battle against the elements or a battle against par, Poulter arrives in decent enough form. Five consecutive top-40 finishes in the United States are highlighted by a tie for 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. With motivation at an all-time high and his game rounding into form, just a slight uptick in Poulter’s ball-striking may be enough for him to experience a renaissance of his own come Sunday.
Top-Finishers (Odds via PointsBet):
Andy Sullivan (+6000 to win, +525 to finish inside the top-10):
I spent the better half of the COVID-19 quarantine losing money on Sullivan at much shorter odds and with his recent string of strong play, I’ll happily go back to the Englishman. He enjoyed a nice 2020 season, which included picking up his fourth European Tour title at the English Masters.
Sullivan wasn’t able to ride this momentum into the beginning of 2021, but based on his recent play, another strong back-half of the season may be in the cards. Three top-15 finishes in his last five starts include a T-6 at the British Masters, a T-5 at the BMW International Open, and a T-12 at last week’s Irish Open.
While the ball-striking may be a touch down compared to last season, on and around the green, Sullivan has shown signs of life. In two appearances at the Rennaissance Club, Sullivan has finished T-26 and T-28. Having finished inside the top-20 in SG: Tee-to-Green both of those weeks, Sullivan was just a cooperative putter away from seriously contending. Sitting in a tie for sixth at the 54-hole mark in October, Sullivan’s been close to piecing it all together on this Doak design, and this year may finally be the time he does just that.
Danny Willett (+8000 to win, +650 to finish inside the top-10):
Truth be told, I had my eye on Willett a few weeks ago ahead of the Palmetto Championship. However, an unforeseen appendicitis left the Englishman in the hospital and thus missing out on the tournament. Willett returned to competition last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and while it was a forgetful start, it’s encouraging that he got four rounds under his belt.
Things didn’t go his way in the Scottish Open last October as Willett missed the weekend. As it goes in Scotland, weather plays a massive factor in any tournament. That was true in October, and while it is up in the air as of now, there’s a real chance conditions return to that of July 2019, which may be to the delight of Willett.
He struck the ball well the first two days in Detroit before falling off a bit of a cliff in Rounds 3 and 4, but I saw enough for me to jump in at this number. This will only be his fifth start outside of the United States this season. Taking part in the desert swing earlier in the year, Willett has since only played the British Masters, which he hosted. Perfect making the weekend thus far, Willett should build on that T-11 finish and find himself with an outside chance in North Berwick.
Padraig Harrington (+15000 to win, +1600 to finish inside the top-10):
We mentioned the importance of it being a Ryder Cup season above with Poulter, but what about for Captain Harrington? The soon-to-be 50-year-old should be worth a flier when considering how he played here in October. Not only that, but Harrington’s familiarity with the property should only help the cause. A man of many hats, Harrington serves as a player consultant and has recently begun to work with architect, Tom Doak, on the continuing development of the course.
Outside of the PGA Championship, when he finished in a tie for fourth, the results haven’t stacked up for the Irishman. Three missed cuts in the United States surround his play at the Ocean Course and outside of that, the best he’s been able to muster up in 2021 is a T-31 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
It hasn’t gotten any better the last two weeks, missing the cut at both the BMW International and his home country’s Open. While that fact may turn off many, his ball-striking is what is attracting me to the flame, specifically his driving. The irons, which had found some form in the U.S., have been poor in Europe. The putter will need to be better, much like it was in Munich, but for the sake of backing wily, European veterans, Harrington can’t be kept off the list.
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