On paper, the New Orleans Saints have many advantages in Week 4 — the New York Giants are without their middle linebacker Blake Martinez and left guard Shane Lemieux (out for the year with knee injuries), as well as their center Nick Gates (also out for the season with a broken leg), plus several of their best wide receivers in Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard (resting hamstring injuries).
Top free agent pickup Kenny Golladay has also been limited in practice, but it’s not like risk-averse coaches Joe Judge and Jason Garrett were using him much anyway.
And the Saints are coming home. The Caesars Superdome will be packed with 70,000 or so of the Who Dat Nation’s most fervent followers, eager to pack the building for the first time since their wild-card round loss to the Vikings in the 2019 playoffs (yeah, it’s been that long). It’s going to be a hostile environment for the visiting G-Men. So why worry?
To be frank, the Saints aren’t good enough yet to take it easy on a team like the Giants. Until the offense can shift gears and score at will again, they’ve got to take every opponent on their schedule as seriously as they did the Packers back in Week 1. The Saints themselves have some weaknesses that can be exploited. If there’s a path for New York to win in an upset, they’ll have to take some initiative and hit on these keys to the game:
Giants rookie Azeez Ojulari vs. Saints backup James Hurst
Washington Football Team quarterback Taylor Heinicke (4) runs to avoid being tackled by New York Giants linebacker Azeez Ojulari (51) during the first half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
It’s early, but it’s looking like the Saints will be without both left tackle Terron Armstead (elbow) and center Erik McCoy (calf) this week, as neither of them participated during Wednesday’s first practice session. We know Armstead is going to be down for “several weeks” and we’ll get to the other situation in just a minute. That puts James Hurst at left tackle, with a potential mismatch.
Rookie draft pick Azeez Ojulari has already made a splash with three sacks (and 8 total pressures) in as many games rushing off the edges. He’s a very good athlete and has had his best moments coming from the left end (where Ryan Ramczyk should be able to handle him at right tackle), but he’ll match up with Hurst on maybe a third of his reps on the right end spot. That’s going to be challenging for the veteran. He needs to be on top of his game to protect Jameis Winston’s blind side against those mismatches.
Giants defensive tackles vs. patchwork Saints interior line
New York Giants defensive end Leonard Williams (99) and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence (97) react after the Dallas Cowboys scored a touchdown during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Monday, Nov. 4, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
The hope was McCoy could return for Week 4. Him not practicing on Wednesday isn’t a great sign, though he has time still to get back to work. If that doesn’t happen, it means Cesar Ruiz may continue to start in his place with Calvin Throckmorton at right guard. They’ve both underperformed on limited reps even if last week’s game was better than their Week 2 outing. Backup center Will Clapp was designated to return this week but we’ll have to see if he’s ready for game day. He could be an upgrade over Ruiz if healthy.
And the Giants have enough playmakers up front to take advantage of those absences. Dexter Lawrence is one of the better young nose tackles in this league, and he can punish Ruiz from the pivot point if they line up head-to-head. Ruiz has just been getting outmuscled in those situations. Lawrence and disruptive tackle Leonard Williams each have double-digit pressures already through three games and they’ll be tough to handle. Ruiz and Throckmorton have to step up against a difficult duo.
The Giants have a dangerous vertical passing factor, if they choose to use it
Sep 26, 2021; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) throws the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
First the bad news. Daniel Jones is the sixth-highest rated quarterback at Pro Football Focus on pass attempts traveling 20 or more yards downfield (92.9), and he was their fourth-best quarterback in that category last season (95.6). He ranked inside the top 20 as a rookie in 2019, too. Even though he’s missing some weapons, Jones has a big enough arm to hit passes over the top. He’s scored 19 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions on these long-distance tries in his career, with all of turnovers coming in his rookie year.
Now the good news, quoting NBC Sports Edge: Jones is a “conservative quarterback taking plays from a conservative offensive coordinator working for a conservative coach employed by a conservative general manager cashing checks from a conservative owner.” He’s only attempted 7 throws of 20-plus yards this season. The Giants do not want to gamble on big gains through the air. It isn’t the style of play they value or have built themselves to achieve.
Maybe desperation drives them towards it, but the Saints can discourage any potential danger by defending it well early on. Marcus Williams is one of the better deep safeties in the game today and a quick pass breakup (or interception!) could make a statement loud enough to silence Jones’ howitzer.
So what does the worst-case scenario look like?
Nov 22, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) jumps into the stands to celebrate with fans after a fumble recovery against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s say that the underrated Giants defensive line outmuscles the banged-up Saints offensive line. Winston is pressured off his blind side in a couple critical moments while Ruiz and Throckmorton are pushed around to keep the running game from waking up. He turns the ball over a couple times, and Jason Garrett, feeling the pressure of a winless start to the season, rolls the dice on a couple deep shot plays to try and hold onto the momentum.
It works, with Kadarius Toney’s impressive speed cutting past New Orleans defenders for big gains and maybe a touchdown. The New York media machine is overjoyed to see some aggression on offense and some muttering about Joe Judge’s Coach of the Year candidacy comes up, if he and Garrett can truly turn things around after such an ugly start.
The Saints still win by a lopsided margin of 24-14 because they’ve got a better roster on both sides of the ball and improve to 4-1, with Alvin Kamara proving unstoppable and Winston having just enough time to pick apart the New York secondary. At least the Giants can find a way to spin this as a moral victory. And, hey, nobody pointed or laughed at them to risk a taunting flag, too. John Mara must be thrilled.
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