Road to 4-0? Breaking down the NFL’s most surprising unbeaten teams

The only way to get to 4-0 is to go 3-0 first. Five teams have remained unbeaten as the NFL season starts to shake the rust off. As a continuation of last week’s piece, I wanted to dive even deeper into these “surprises” (maybe we’ll call them “preseason non-favorites”) and how they can now get to 4-0.

First: Sorry, Chiefs and Bills. You were definitely preseason favorites. Although both perennial contenders continue to evolve and shift into new philosophies and identities that are going to be fun to dissect in the coming weeks — Rashee Rice’s Kelce-like usage, two of the best run games in the NFL, new Bills defensive faces, Josh Allen morphing from Professor Chaos into Shao Khan — that’s for a later day.

Instead, I wanted to dig into three of the other undefeateds, all on the road this Week 4 with two being underdogs, and their matchups as they try to remain unbeaten.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5 at Colts)

The Steelers are actually favorites at the time of this writing, reflecting their strong defensive performance (first in EPA per play, and fourth in FTN’s defensive DVOA, which makes adjustments based on opponents) and the offense finding the correct way to best use its personnel.

Center Zach Frazier has reinforced the entire offensive operation, and while the numbers haven’t entirely reflected it — the Steelers are 28th in rushing success rate — some of that is because of their offensive line gelling with a quarterback who wasn’t the entrenched starter during preseason against a tougher-than-expected schedule of defenses. (The Broncos’ group in particular is looking like one of the league’s better defenses. Pretty fun matchup against the Jets on Sunday with a Pat Surtain II vs. Garrett Wilson cruiserweight battle. Hello, MIke Williams?)

Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith still mixes his personnel together like Doctor Moreau. Week 3 against the Chargers featured 11 snaps with jumbo personnel (six offensive linemen) and 16 snaps of Pony personnel, with Cordarrelle Patterson on the field with another running back. And this isn’t some sideshow act, either; the Steelers were effective with Patterson on the field, as those 16 snaps produced 133 yards (8.3 yards per play) and a touchdown.

Passing game-wise, Justin Fields showed more confidence as the game went along against the Chargers, with a touchdown drive that started and ended with throws pushed downfield and in the rhythm of the concept.

The Colts put on a brave face against Caleb Williams and the Bears, stifling Chicago for most of the game with a nicely jumped interception by Jaylon Jones and a goal-line stand that featured three straight Bears runs out of of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) against the Colts’ base 3-4.

Outside of this jaw-dropping sequence of personnel blindness from the Bears’ offensive coaching staff, the Colts can still be run on, even with the best efforts of some of their front players. The Steelers are even well-equipped for running into loaded boxes, so despite Gus Bradley throwing more bodies at the problem, Smith will be able to find answers on the ground.

Fields is going to give wideout George Pickens chances at the football. With single-high looks leaving singled-up coverage on the outside, expect to see the Steelers dial up a deeper play-action and test vertical shots against the Colts’ suspect cornerbacks.

On the other side of the ball, this Steelers defense against this Colts run game should be a treat. Even with Alex Highsmith out with a groin injury, this Steelers front with Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, Keeanu Benton and T.J. Watt is as stout as any (currently second in rushing success rate allowed). They can also create pressure on the quarterback. While Anthony Richardson avoids sacks, he turns into an X Games Best Trick contestant when he gets moved off of his launch point in the pocket, leaving opportunities for omnipresent Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Both sides essentially come down to how well the run games operate on first and second down. The Colts’ run game against the Steelers’ run defense features a strength-on-strength battle between units. The other side is not as dynamic. But the Steelers’ offense has its best matchup so far this season and a real opportunity to show that the offense can start becoming a consistent unit and one that is as respectable as the defense has been so far.

(And this might be the week they do it.)

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5 at Packers)

On offense, head coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings have continued to incubate Sam Darnold with their run game that features the long and winding paths of Aaron Jones and plenty of fantastic designs to get Justin Jefferson open.

But Darnold continues to have his flashy throws and improvisation moments in key spots like third down and the red zone. And his mistakes haven’t cost the Vikings (yet).

It was pretty easy to preview a Vikings offense-Packers defense matchup under previous defensive coordinator Joe Barry. It was the usual formula to stop an S-tier receiving threat when an offense has no other threatening options: plenty of Cover 2 and double-teams featuring two defensive backs bracketing Jefferson.

With new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, the Packers have featured single-high coverages (Cover 3, Cover 1) at a slightly above-average rate. I am curious if he will defer to the standard “contain Jefferson” coverages and force Jalen Nailor and others to beat them in the passing game, or if he sticks to his more standard fare of a mixed bag of coverages in an effort to confuse Darnold.

Those past games featuring tons of soft coverages to limit Jefferson had a lasting effect on the Vikings. In those prior matchups, the Vikings had a toothless run attack that defenses weren’t threatened by. Like, at all. They basically said, “Sure, you can hand the ball off to Alexander Mattison again. Enjoy your next third-and-long.”

The Vikings are now dangerous on the ground and can punish any attack that pays a bit too much attention to Jefferson. Perhaps we see some true Jaire Alexander vs. Jefferson matchups, or perhaps a smorgasbord of different looks. This Vikings, with Darnold continuing to play positively, have a lot of answers for any type of defense that faces them. And they should have answers for another bag of tricks thrown their way.

As for the Packers’ offense, Jordan Love practiced Wednesday, but even if he plays he’ll have more limited mobility. His head and eyes will have to be moving at full speed, at the very least, against coordinator Brian Flores and this defense that has now stifled the 49ers and Texans, two of the most potent attacks who also happen to stem from the same coaching tree as Matt LaFleur.

The Packers had answers for this defense in their final matchup in the 2023 season, with Love delivering a couple of haymakers downfield while the offense started to crescendo. Look for plenty of zone runs from the Packers to try and wad up the Vikings’ wackiness, plus taking opportunities when they have them downfield. Green Bay has some of the league’s better offensive game plans, from how to design a run game around Malik Willis to the pass protection plans against the Vikings last year. Expect to see the Packers have some answers for the Vikings’ blizzard defense.

I expect this game to have big plays from every unit involved, with a slight edge to the Vikings because of Love’s health.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5 at Lions)

The Seahawks’ offense keeps cruising and keeps taking care of business in the second half. Geno Smith keeps firing. The run game has its moments (again in the second half) and the offensive line is … there.

Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb continues to call a greatest hits of play designs, featuring plenty of NFL standards with some fun formational twists and motions. Grubb and Smith’s preference for empty formations even paid off in a big way with a 71-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf that played off earlier concepts the Seahawks have shown this year. It also featured Metcalf reading a double-move route on the fly which is a huge sign of faith by Grubb in his players (and a huge leap of faith in the Seahawks’ protection):

The Seahawks prefer to mostly base their attack out of three-wide receiver looks, which will behoove them against a Lions defense that is nasty against the run, especially when they get to get into their base defense with three linebackers behind their beefy interior line. (Linebacker Jack Campbell is also excellent against the run; against the pass we’ll call him a work in progress.) Look for plenty of spread-to-run looks and one-on-one matchups between the Seahawks wide receivers and the feisty Lions defensive backs. Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is not one to shy away from using man coverage no matter who the receiving threats are.

The Seahawks’ defense, meanwhile, is sitting at or near the top at the alphabet soup of metrics that I like to look at — with the caveat that their recent opponents (featuring quarterbacks Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson) must be taken with a kilogram of salt. Still, this defense looks several tiers faster and better equipped to handle modern offenses than the Seahawks were 10 months ago. It’s a testament to the coaching by new head coach Mike Macdonald and his staff.

Their game plans haven’t been wildly exotic in terms of pressure, but they have been able to still get consistent pressure on the quarterback with their front and improved play from players like Boye Mafe. The Seahawks also have size on their front (featuring the perpetually underrated Johnathan Hankins), something that is a great equalizer against an offense that prides itself on overwhelming their opponent with constant blows to the face via the ground game.

Macdonald had plenty of answers for Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s base attack and designer plays last year as the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. And the Lions could be without center Frank Ragnow, one of the most important players on their offense, and one of the most valuable players on any unit in the NFL. (In 2023, Detroit went from tied for second in EPA per play on the 755 plays with Ragnow to 27th on the 182 plays without him.) Ragnow’s absence is even more significant against a play-caller like Macdonald, who has such a wide menu of plays at his disposal. Look for the Seahawks to crank up their exotic looks, something the Buccaneers and Cardinals did in recent weeks with success, and try to pressure Goff. Or just the feeling of discomfort without his safety blanket at the pivot position.

Even with the Lions at home and over a field goal favorites, I like how the Seahawks’ defense matches up against the Lions’ run game and well-orchestrated passing attack. They can not only cover but even win outright.

Without Ragnow, it becomes even more important to win on first and second down for the Lions. Look for a battle in the trenches on those early downs, with Smith on the other side definitely feeling the pressure from Alim McNeill, Aidan Hutchinson and others, but with a shot play or two connecting against an overly aggressive man coverage defender.

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