The NFL season comes to an end on Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams meet in the Super Bowl. Ever since training camps opened in the summer, the ultimate goal for every team was to play football in February. These two teams have accomplished that goal.
The Rams and Bengals have taken two different paths. One was somewhat expected to be here; the other has shocked the football world on their journey. Let’s take a look back at what these teams have accomplished over the course of the season.
Prior to the season
Entering the season, expectations were high for the Los Angeles Rams. They upgraded their biggest weakness by trading Jared Goff and some draft picks for Matthew Stafford. The football world was anxious to see how Sean McVay’s offense would look with a star quarterback at the controls.
The Rams opened at 20-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, but there was plenty of support for the Rams over the summer. By the time the season kicked off in early September, the Rams were 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. These were the fourth-best odds in the entire league, behind only the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills.
Los Angeles was a +190 co-favorite to win the NFC West, sharing the favorite role with the San Francisco 49ers. Its preseason win total was set at over/under 10.5 wins. Los Angeles won 12 games and the division, cashing both tickets for their backers.
On the other side, it was a completely different story for the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow was coming off a torn ACL and the Bengals were coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020. Expectations were understandably low.
The Bengals opened at 80-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, and things only got worse over the offseason. By the time the season started, Cincinnati was 150-to-1 to win it all. These were the exact same odds as the New York Jets. The only teams with worse odds were the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions.
The Bengals were 25-to-1 to win the AFC North entering the season, well behind the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. They ended up cashing that ticket for their backers.
The preseason win total for Cincinnati was over/under 6.5 wins. This is the exact same win total as the Jacksonville Jaguars had. Unlike the Jaguars, the Bengals cashed their over with ease.
Ja’Marr Chase is the current favorite to win offensive rookie of the year, but that wasn’t the case entering the season. Chase was 12-to-1 to win the award, behind seven other players. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kyle Pitts and Najee Harris all had better odds in the preseason.
How’d the odds look midseason?
Even halfway through the season, not much had changed for these two teams. Both ticked up a little bit, but nothing too dramatic.
Los Angeles opened the season with a 7-2 record in their first nine games. As a result, the Rams found themselves with +700 odds to win the Super Bowl. These were the third-best odds in the league, behind only the Buccaneers and Bills.
At that point in the season, Matt Stafford was amongst the favorites to win the MVP award and found himself near the top of the leaderboard with the likes of Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Tom Brady. Stafford couldn’t keep pace with Brady and Aaron Rodgers as the season progressed.
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For the Bengals, they escaped the basement and left teams like the Jaguars, Jets, Texans and Lions in the dust. However, oddsmakers still weren’t rushing to believe in the Bengals.
After nine weeks, the Bengals were 5-4. They were coming off an embarrassing 41-16 loss at the hands of the Cleveland Browns right before their bye week. Cincinnati found themselves at 66-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at this point. Those odds were tied for the 15th best in the league. Cincinnati had the same Super Bowl odds as the Steelers at that point of the season.
How’d the teams fare against the spread in the regular season?
We’ve taken a look back at some futures odds from various points of the season, but how did these teams fare against the spread on a weekly basis?
Believe it or not, the Rams were not a profitable bet over the course of the season. They went just 8-9 against the spread in the regular season. They were a favorite 15 times over the course of the regular season, and they covered just six times in that role. They lost five games this season as a favorite.
The Bengals were a much more profitable bet for their backers. Cincinnati went 10-7 against the spread this season. This includes a 6-3 mark against the spread as an underdog. Cincinnati won five games this season where they were a betting underdog.
In terms of totals, 9 of 17 Bengals regular season games went under the total. The Rams played in more high scoring games, with the over going 9-7-1 in their games.
Odds entering the playoffs
Once the regular season was finished and the playoff seeding were set, neither of these teams was among the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Despite finishing with a 12-5 record and winning the NFC West, the Rams were 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl prior to wild card weekend. Those were the sixth-best odds of the 14 playoff teams. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo and Tennessee all had better Super Bowl odds than the Rams.
Only three teams in the playoffs had worse Super Bowl odds than the Bengals prior to wild card weekend. Cincinnati was 20-to-1 to win it all at this point. Only the Steelers, Eagles and Raiders had worse odds.
Playoff performance
In order to get to this point, these two teams must have performed well in the playoffs. However, we care most about whether they’re covering spreads.
Cincinnati is a perfect 3-0 against the spread in these playoffs. The Bengals beat the Raiders by seven as a 6-point favorite. They then beat the Titans straight up as a 4-point underdog and bested that by beating the Chiefs straight up as a 7.5-point underdog. Notably, all three Bengals games in these playoffs have gone under the total. Dating back to the regular season, the Bengals have covered in seven straight games.
For the Rams, they’ve gone 2-1 against the spread. They beat the Cardinals by 23 points as a 3.5-point favorite in the wild card round. In the divisional round, the Rams were a 3-point underdog but beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright. In the conference championship, the Rams won by three points, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite over the 49ers. Two of the Rams three playoff games have gone under the total.
One last hurdle
It’s been an impressive run for both teams, but it will all come down to Sunday. Once again, the Bengals find themselves in the underdog role.
Cincinnati is a 4.5-point underdog against the Rams in the Super Bowl. The total is set at 48.5 points.