Week 11 around the Big Ten saw two division races inch closer to the finish line with both divisions still up for grabs coming into the final two weeks of the regular season. Unfortunately for Penn State, the Nittany Lions have officially been eliminated from contention after letting a possible win against Michigan slip through their fingers while the Wolverines remain in a great spot to host a possible de facto Big Ten East Division championship game in two weeks.
Penn State needed a win against Michigan and to win out to work their way into a crazy tiebreaking scenario, but that is now off the table entirely. Instead, Penn State will get one more chance to play a potential spoiler in the final week of the season if Michigan State can manage to come up with a big win next weekend.
Let’s take a look at the Big Ten East race with two weeks remaining.
Big Ten East
oseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining teams in contention: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State
Ohio State is the only unbeaten team left standing in Big Ten play (the only loss suffered by the Buckeyes came against Oregon in non-conference play), but Ohio State has the most challenging end to the season. The Buckeyes are hosting Michigan State (9-1, 6-1 in Big Ten) this week and visiting Michigan (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) in the final week of the season. So this weekend’s game between Ohio State and Michigan State has the potential to eliminate the Spartans from the running or leave things a bit more complicated coming into the final week of the season.
Ohio State could actually clinch the Big Ten East next weekend with a win over Michigan State and a Michigan loss at Maryland.
Michigan State already owns a head-to-head tiebreaker with Michigan and would have the leg up in the division race going into the final week of the season if it could add a head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State. The Spartans would win the Big Ten East with a win over the Buckeyes and then Penn State the following week. Michigan State cannot lose a second Big Ten game unless Michigan loses twice
Michigan also has to win its final two games of the season but is also thrown in the uncomfortable position of having to root for an Ohio State win this weekend against Michigan State. No matter the scenario, Michigan has to beat Ohio State to either finish in sole possession of first place or win a tiebreaker with the Buckeyes.
In summary…
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If Ohio State wins against Michigan State and Michigan, Ohio State wins the Big Ten East.
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If Ohio State wins against Michigan State and Michigan loses to Maryland, Ohio State wins the Big Ten East.
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If Michigan State wins against Ohio State and Penn State, Michigan State wins the Big Ten East.
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If Michigan State wins against Ohio State, Michigan loses to Maryland, Michigan wins against Ohio State, then Michigan State wins the Big Ten East.
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If Michigan wins against Maryland and Ohio State, and Michigan State loses to Penn State, then Michigan wins the Big Ten East.
Got all of that? Good. Now let’s take a look at that Big Ten West…
NEXT: How the Big Ten West will be won
Big Ten West
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining teams in contention: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue
A four-team race in the Big Ten West is still in play with two weeks to play, but it still looks likely to come down to the Wisconsin Badgers and Iowa Hawkeyes, which many suspected would be the case at the beginning of the season.
Minnesota and Purdue each lost games in Week 11 to make things a bit more difficult in the division, especially for the Gophers with a loss to Iowa and Wisconsin still on deck.
Wisconsin and Iowa are each 5-2 in Big Ten play, but the Badgers have that head-to-head tiebreaker they can rely on at the end of the year if needed. And the way Wisconsin has been playing, it’s possible the Badgers have the inside track for the division crown. The Badgers have a home game against Nebraska in Week 12 and a road game at Minnesota in the final week of the regular season. Iowa’s schedule may be more favorable with a home game against Illinois and a road game at Nebraska after Thanksgiving, although the Illini have spring two top 25 road wins this season against Penn State and Minnesota.
If both Wisconsin and Iowa go 2-0 the next two weeks, the division is Wisconsin’s. But if the Badgers get tripped up in either game and Iowa wins their two games, then the Hawkeyes are heading to the Big Ten championship game.
Purdue has the best remaining schedule in the Big Ten West with two home games against Northwestern and Indiana, with a combined win total of 5-15 and 1-13 in Big Ten play this season. The Boilermakers also have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Iowa. But in order for that to mean anything for the Boilermakers, they need Wisconsin to lose at least once and for Iowa to go down one more time.
The complication for Purdue is they may need Minnesota to beat Wisconsin too, and the Gophers own a head-to-head tiebreaker with Purdue, putting Purdue at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to the multiple-team tiebreaking procedures in the Big Ten.
Let’s see if we can simplify things without diving too deep in to the complex division tiebreaking scenarios for now.
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Wisconsin wins the Big Ten West with wins against Nebraska and Minnesota
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Iowa wins the Big Ten West with wins against Illinois and Nebraska AND any Wisconsin loss
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Minnesota wins the Big Ten West with wins against Indiana and Wisconsin and any Iowa loss
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Purdue wins the Big Ten West with wins against Northwestern and Indiana AND any Iowa loss AND Wisconsin losses to Nebraska and Minnesota AND a Minnesota loss to Indiana
We could dig a little deeper into the Big Ten division tiebreaking scenarios in the Big Ten West, but we’ll just see what happens in Week 12 before worrying too much about it, because it could clean itself up a little bit next week anyway.
Penn State can lock into fourth place in Big Ten East
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
It is a far shot from where it looked like this season was projected at the end of September with hopes of playing in at least a New Years Six bowl game looked promising. But Penn State is one win away from locking up fourth place in the Big Ten East Division for the 2021 season.
Yippee.
At 3-4 in Big Ten play with losses to Ohio State and Michigan within the division, Penn State is three back in the loss column of the Buckeyes (four games back), Michigan and Michigan State. Even if Penn State wins its final two games, the Nittany Lions will finish no higher than fourth place in the division for the 2021 season.
Penn State has to win one more game in order to lock in that finishing place in the Big Ten East. The Nittany Lions will host Rutgers this week in the home finale in Beaver Stadium before hitting the road for the final game of the season against Michigan State. Penn State has the potential to play the role of spoiler for the Spartans, as Michigan State will still be playing for at least a spot in a New Years Six bowl game in the final week of the regular season, if not for the Big Ten East Division crown.
Even though Penn State is out of the division hunt, the Big Ten division races will be interesting to watch in the next two weeks.
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