New York is the home office for intrigue as free agency officially begins, with Aaron Judge and Jacob deGrom keeping Mets and Yankees fans looking desperately for even the smallest clues that might indicate their guy is staying put.
But beyond the two superstars, this free agent class is loaded with big names and the likelihood that many will be changing uniforms.
So let’s take a crack at predicting where the Top 10 free agents will land…
Don’t read too much into Brian Cashman’s inability to get some face time with Judge’s agent, Page Odle, during the GM Meetings in Las Vegas. No one knows for sure what Judge’s priorities are for his free agency decision, but it makes sense that he’ll at least want to hear what other teams have to offer as a way of creating maximum leverage with the Yankees.
Perhaps more significantly, if Judge wants to go back to northern California, where he and his wife grew up, it seems clear the San Francisco Giants will make him a huge offer. At the GM Meetings their president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, said, “From a financial standpoint nobody is out of our capability.”
The Yankees can only hope the idea of becoming a captain and a legend for baseball’s most famous franchise matters to Judge, which would be in keeping with his public persona. If so, I’m convinced Hal Steinbrenner understands how bad it would look to lose a player who just produced one of the best seasons in the sport’s history, and he goes over the $300 million mark to keep his superstar.
I believe, as both Mark Canha and Zack Wheeler have said in recent days, based on conversations with deGrom, that the two-time Cy Young Award winner would be happy to return to the Mets. But I also believe he’s going to the highest bidder, wherever that may be.
Such is his motivation to make up for the five-year, $137.5 million contract he signed in 2019 that he seems to believe undervalued his worth, in part because it included a sizeable amount of deferred money — though it’s a lot harder to make that case after he missed half of each of the last two seasons.
In any case, it was worth noting that Edwin Diaz’s new deal included deferred money as a way of helping the Mets stay under the competitive balance tax, which seems to be a sign that Steve Cohen isn’t ready to blow past any and all payroll barriers to win a championship.
As such, I think the Mets may draw a line in negotiations with deGrom, deciding the injury risk becomes too prohibitive in a deal that goes beyond three years. The Rangers, meanwhile, are desperate for high-level pitching and ready to continue the spending binge that began last offseason, and may be willing to go to four years at 40-plus million per, which likely would be enough to convince deGrom to sign.
3) CARLOS RODON: METS
This could get tricky. The Mets are going to want an answer quickly on deGrom so they can move on if he leaves, especially since Rodon is certainly going to be in high demand.
For this is a guy they would need badly if they lose deGrom, as the only pitcher other than Justin Verlander on the market who could provide similar dominance.
And the problem with Verlander is that, at age 40 next season, pairing him with the 38-year old Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation would bring enormous injury risk.
So Rodon seems to be an obvious fit, one the Mets might be willing to go the extra mile to outbid other teams for. Even if it takes six years and $150 million.
4) TREA TURNER: PHILLIES
I’ll go along with the narrative that Turner prefers the East Coast to a return to LA. And he could be the missing piece that Bryce Harper talked about adding after his Phillies shocked everyone in baseball with their deep postseason run.
Who knows, maybe owner John Harrington, a big spender already, will be motivated enough by his team’s postseason success to add another high-priced star.
In that case, Turner fits them perfectly as a shortstop who would give the Phillies speed and high-average hitting to go with all of their slugging. Put him at leadoff or No. 2 in the lineup, move Rhys Hoskins down to sixth, and they could have the most dynamic offense in baseball.
5 ) CARLOS CORREA: CUBS
This is the move the Yankees should make, in addition to Judge, if they really want to improve their chances of getting over the hump in October, given Correa’s history of clutch hitting in the postseason. But they seem committed to their young shortstops and Correa wants his monster deal after settling for that one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins last season.
Enter the Cubs, who finished the season strong with a core of young players that look just about ready to win again. Adding Correa with a long-term contract could be an important step in their rebuild, especially considering that he’s still young, at age 28.
Also, the Cubs could play 25-year-old Nico Hoerner at second base with the possibility of moving him back to short when Correa eventually moves to third.
6) DANSBY SWANSON: DODGERS
This just feels like a move a well-run organization like the Dodgers would make, finding an excellent replacement for the departing Trea Turner at what is likely to be significantly less money.
At age 28, Swanson can’t match Turner offensively, but he is better defensively at shortstop, earning the NL Gold Glove this season and earning raves from scouts along the way. As one said, “He’s a guy who makes winning plays with the glove and has a knack for getting big hits. I can’t believe the Braves are going to let him get away. But that’s what I said about (Freddie) Freeman last year.”
7) JUSTIN VERLANDER: DODGERS
It’s hard to see the Houston Astros going all-out to keep Verlander, considering they have a stable of good young pitching that just helped them win a championship.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, may see the 40-year-old right-hander as a key piece to winning it all themselves again. Don’t forget, Walker Buehler is out for the 2023 season as he’ll rehab from Tommy John surgery, so LA could use another top of the rotation starter.
Verlander declined a $25 million player option for next season, so he’s probably looking for a two-year deal in the $40 million-per neighborhood where Scherzer resides.
8) XANDER BOGAERTS: RED SOX
He’s not Judge, but Bogaerts is just about as important to the Red Sox. So when it comes right down to it, I think they’ll dig deep to keep their star shortstop as they try to rebound from a disastrous season.
They have the money, of course, and they’re dealing with the fan disenchantment from trading Mookie Betts and slipping in the standings, so you’d think the Sox deem Bogaerts as someone they can’t lose.
It won’t be easy getting a deal done with Scott Boras as the agent, especially as Nimmo’s improvement in center field the last couple of seasons has raised his value, to the point where he is easily the best center fielder in this free agent class. But you’d think he’ll be a high priority for Cohen.
On the other hand, if the Mets wind up laying out $40-plus million per year to retain deGrom, it may be that Cohen decides he can’t keep all his high-priced free agents.
Somehow, though, it feels like the two sides will find a way to make a deal.
It feels like the perfect match: The Yankees need his left-handed power and the ballpark is a perfect fit for Rizzo’s home run swing.
Indeed, his 32 home runs last season were the most by lefty hitter in the Bronx since 2012, when Curtis Granderson hit 43 and Robinson Cano hit 33. And of those 32, he hit 19 at home — 16 in the direction of the short right field porch, according to FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Rizzo’s .224 batting average figures to get a significant bump via the elimination of the shift next season, adding to his value. And though the metrics aren’t kind to him defensively anymore, he’s as good as any first baseman at digging throws out of the dirt, a skill that saved his infielders errors several times in the postseason alone.
Two stints on the IL due to back issues at age 33 are a concern, to be sure, but that may also allow the Yankees to keep the contract relatively short-term, perhaps two years and $36 million.