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Aric Almirola was one of our longshot picks among the Best Bets this week for the outright win with odds of +6000 and that is worth a deep dive into his numbers. In 2021, victories are unpredictable, but we have seen several dark horses gallop to strong finishes.

When wagering on a longshot, it is best to hedge the bet with a few units on some of the other offerings. In the event that driver wins, you clean up across the board. If they run strong but miss the top spot, you still have a chance to get a positive return on them.

Last week Almirola finally got a chance to establish himself among the leaders. With traditional qualification on the schedule for the inaugural Nashville Superspeedway race, he started from the pole and stayed in the top 10 most of the day. He finished fourth and as a result has been awarded the 11th-starting position this week in NASCAR’s metric qualification. Part of the metric is points’ standings and Almirola is well down the order

A starting position of 11th is the best for Almirola in metric qualification since the series rolled out of Daytona. He won’t start with the leaders, but will be able to see them. Almirola swept the top five at Pocono Raceway last year and added a third at Indy, so he knows how to get around this track.

We stand by the notion that he can win and if he does, a $60 return on a $1 bet is going to be sweet. But those long odds drag his other lines to very attractive numbers. Almirola is listed at +1600 for a top-three, he is almost 2/1 for a top-10 (+190) and lags in other Prop Bets. If he can beat Chris Buescher, Matt DiBenedetto, and Daniel Suarez – that is worth +195. If can be the best driver in a Ford, that is worth +1400.

If Almirola can beat Kurt Busch in a head-to-head matchup, that is worth +105.

Click Here for the Pocono Organics CBD 325 Best Bets

Teammate Kevin Harvick won one of the two Pocono races, finished second in the other, and won the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 on the similarly flat Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That gives the organization a great set of notes, especially when combined with Almirola’s.

Cole Custer is listed at +35000 this week with Chase Briscoe at +40000. If you are a bold gambler, a unit on each of them would have immense returns. But even if you can’t shake some money loose for the win, that drags their other lines way up. If either of them wins, it will probably be because of strategy or some strange set of circumstances, so backing the outright bet with a top-three is just as dangerous and you risk losing twice the amount.

But at +600 for each driver to finish in the top-10? That is a much safer wager and in the realm of possibility.

Custer is also listed at +290 if he can beat Erik Jones, Ryan Newman, and Bubba Wallace.

For the past couple of weeks, NBC analyst Steve Letarte has been very high on Ross Chastain. His enthusiasm almost paid out in a big way at Nashville where Chastain was listed at +8000 – and his top-three odds were somewhere just south of 20/1. If that startled the traders at PointsBet Sportsbook, it doesn’t show because he is +9000 this week, which keeps his top-three odds high at +1800 this week.

The only Team Penske driver that we highlighted earlier this week as a Best Bet was Brad Keselowski, but it’s impossible to sleep completely on Joey Logano (+1800) or Ryan Blaney (+1600). This organization is just too strong and capable of winning on any track. And for some reason, Logano has longer odds than Blaney. The No. 22 has been far more consistent this year.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Dark Horses for the Ally 400 (Nashville)
For the Toyota Owners 400 (Richmond)
For the Blue-Emu 500 (Martinsville)