Picking a winner in all 42 Bowl games: It’s easy with the ‘Quality Games’ system

It’s college football bowl season, and that means it’s time to help you win your office pool with another installment of my still-unpatented “Quality Games” system.

After languishing in the middle-of-the-pack in my college bowl picks pool for years using just my dumb old brain and foolish old heart, I developed a system about seven years ago to give me a simple data-driven read on games. A way to pick these impossible-to-pick games without having to think about them.

Without my “Quality Games” system (I’ll explain it in a second for new readers), I wouldn’t have any clue who to pick in some of this year’s bowls like Georgia State vs. Ball State, Louisiana vs. Marshall or even games pitting known commodities like UCLA vs. N.C. State. How do you compare teams you haven’t seen play, and who don’t have common opponents?

Here’s how. I look at every game a team played this year and assign it a point total. Add up the 11 or 12 games the team played and that is their “Quality Games” score. The team in each matchup with the highest QG score is the pick.

And wins and losses aren’t the only determining factor. A close loss to a ranked team is considered better than a narrow win over an unranked team. In baseball terms, it’s like looking at a team’s ERA, not their win-loss record. How often does the team play a quality game when they step on the field?

So with that as the backdrop, I’ve run the numbers on all 42 games (84 teams, yikes). Here are the important findings followed by the pick for every game.

The scoring system

Here is a refresher of the value I assign to each game a team plays. I apply this to every game, add up their points and get their QG score.

• 3 points: Road win over a ranked team

• 2 points: Home/neutral win over a ranked team

• 1 point: Lopsided win (21 points or more) over an unranked team

• 1 point: Narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team

• 0 points: Regular win (9-20 points) over an unranked team

• 0 points: Regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team

• -1 point: Narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team

• -1 point: Lopsided loss (21 or more) to a ranked team

• -2 points: Regular loss to an unranked team (20 points or less)

• -3 points: Lopsided loss to an unranked team (21 or more)

Important caveats: Some things to keep in mind. When referring to a “ranked” team, I’m using the end-of-the-year FBS rankings top 25. You don’t get extra credit for beating a team that was ranked at the time you beat them and isn’t anymore. Also if you played a non-FBS school, the game doesn’t count, unless you lost, and then it’s -3. Also, this is just a straight numbers game based on teams’ on-field performance so far, I’m not taking anything into account like a quarterback being injured, or key players choosing to skip bowl games. You’ll have to factor in those types of things as you see fit.

Story continues

The seven games Vegas has wrong

The value in the system is spotlighting games where you can gain an advantage on people in your picks league. Specifically, games in which the QG system sees the Vegas underdog as the favorite.

There are seven such games this year. As you can see, almost all of them were very close, so these are some real toss-ups, but that’s what winning a bowl picks league is all about, navigating the toss-ups. So if you are a believer in this system, pick these seven underdog teams. Listed with QG score in parenthesis:

• Western Kentucky (4) over Appalachian State (-1) in the Boca Raton Bowl

• Houston (0) over Auburn (-1) in the Birmingham Bowl

• SMU (-3) over Virginia (-5) in the Fenway Bowl

• Oregon (-2) over Oklahoma (-3) in the Alamo Bowl

• Arizona State (-1) over Wisconsin (-2) in the Las Vegas Bowl

• Oklahoma State (4) over Notre Dame (2) in the Fiesta Bowl

• LSU (-1) over Kansas State (-2) in the Texas Bowl

Committee almost had right Final Four

One of the most interesting revelations this year, and it kind of goes in line with how the college football season went, is that the top teams were not as untouchable as they have been in recent years.

Usually when I run the numbers, the top five or six teams all have double-digit totals. This year only one team had a double-digit total, and that’s the team that had the best Quality Games season — Georgia.

It makes sense, right? Every game Georgia played was either a lopsided win over an unranked team, a win over a ranked team, or in the case of their final game a loss to a ranked team. Conversely, Alabama, had some games throughout their season that were low-quality, narrow wins over unranked Florida, LSU and Auburn, for example.

Five teams separated themselves this year, and the committee and the QG system almost agreed on the Final Four with one exception.

The top five QG teams are: Georgia (15), Michigan (9), Alabama (9), Ohio State (9) and Cincinnati (8). No other team had more than five points. So the only small quibble would be that Ohio State would have nosed out Cincinnati for one of the four spots.

Expect a Georgia vs. Alabama rematch in the final with Georgia winning.

One anomaly: Tennessee

Usually, when I run the numbers on the teams, there is nothing truly shocking, but this year there was an anomaly, and a team that had a season built perfectly for the QG system and that was the Tennessee Volunteers.

The Volunteers, an unranked team that finished 7-5 on the year, finished with the sixth-most points. Only Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State and Cincinnati scored more than Tennessee. How is that possible? Well, let’s take a look at their slate. This will also be a good way to show the system in action.

• Game 1: A lopsided 38-6 win over unranked Bowling Green (1 point)

• Game 2: A narrow 41-34 loss to ranked Pitt (1 point)

• Game 3: A 56-0 win over Tennessee Tech, doesn’t count not an FBS team

• Game 4: A lopsided 38-14 loss to unranked Florida (the dreaded -3 points)

• Game 5: A lopsided 62-23 win over unranked Missouri (1 point)

• Game 6: A lopsided 45-20 win over unranked South Carolina (1 point)

• Game 7: A narrow 31-26 loss to ranked Mississippi (1 point)

• Game 8: A lopsided 52-24 loss to ranked Alabama (-1 point)

• Game 9: A 45-42 road win over ranked Kentucky (a rare 3 pointer)

• Game 10: A lopsided 41-17 loss to ranked Georgia (-1 point)

• Game 11: A lopsided 60-14 win over South Alabama (1 point)

• Game 12: A lopsided 45-21 win over Vanderbilt (1 point)

Add those all up and you get five points, the sixth-most of any team in the country. They did everything the QG system asks.

When they played an unranked team, they beat them soundly. Close losses to Pitt and Mississippi earned them a point despite the loss. And they picked up a rare road win against a ranked team. There were only nine of those all year in college football. A bit fortunate that Kentucky ended up No. 25 in the final poll, but, hey, that’s not Tennessee’s fault.

Also, in a normal season, a total of five points would not put them in the top 10, but this was an unusual parity-filled year in college football.

The biggest favorites

Don’t think twice. Circle these winners in black marker and don’t look back. If you are in a confidence pool make these your biggest point-total picks. The sure things. (Yes, I know the more I lay it on, the more I jinx these lopsided QG favorites.)

• Coastal Carolina (-3) over Northern Illinois (-15) in the Cure Bowl

• Fresno State (-1) over UTEP (-13) in the New Mexico Bowl

• Boise State (0) over Central Michigan (-10) in the Arizona Bowl

• Liberty (-4) over Eastern Michigan (-13) in the LendingTree Bowl

• Minnesota (-3) over West Virginia (-11) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl

• Ohio State (9) over Utah (1) in the Rose Bowl

Too close to call

Four games — a record — ended up in a flat-footed tie when running them through the QG gauntlet. In those cases, I advise picking the Las Vegas underdog, again to gain an edge on your opponents. So here is how to pick these toss-ups

• San Diego State (-6) over UTSA (-6) in the Frisco Bowl

• UCLA (0) over N.C. State (0) in the Holiday Bowl

• Virginia Tech (-8) over Maryland (-8) in the Pinstripe Bowl

• Washington State (-4) over Miami (-4) in the Sun Bowl

All 42 bowl game winners

Here’s what you’ve been waiting for, the winners and the QG scores (in parenthesis) for all 42 games in order of when they are played. The bigger the gap in the scores, the more confidence you should have in that pick if you’re doing the type of pool that has confidence points. The winning team is listed first.

Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (-4) over Middle Tennessee (-11)

Cure Bowl: Coastal Carolina (-3) over Northern Illinois (-15)

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky (4) over Appalachian State (-1)

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State (-1) over UTEP (-13)

Independence Bowl: BYU (-3) over UAB (-5)

LendingTree Bowl: Liberty (-4) over Eastern Michigan (-13)

L.A. Bowl: Oregon State (-5) over Utah State (-6)

New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana (-4) over Marshall (-10)

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Tulsa (-9) over Old Dominion (-12)

Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming (-13) over Kent State (-15)

Frisco Bowl: (TIE) Pick SDSU (-6) over UTSA (-6)

Armed Forces Bowl: Army (-5) over Missouri (-8)

Frisco Bowl: Miami (Ohio) (-10) over North Texas (-14)

Gasparilla Bowl: Florida (-3) over UCF (-10)

Hawaii Bowl: Memphis (-12) over Hawaii (-16)

Camellia Bowl: Georgia State (-11) over Ball State (-14)

Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan (-6) over Nevada (-7)

Military Bowl: Boston College (-6) over East Carolina (-8)

Birmingham Bowl: Houston (0) over Auburn (-1)

First Responder Bowl: Louisville (-1) over Air Force (-4)

Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State (-2) over Texas Tech (-8)

Holiday Bowl: TIE Pick UCLA (0) over N.C. State (0)

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota (-3) over West Virginia (-11)

Fenway Bowl: SMU (-3) over Virginia (-5)

Pinstripe Bowl: TIE Pick Virginia Tech (-8) over Maryland (-8)

Cheez-It Bowl: Iowa State (4) over Clemson (2)

Alamo Bowl: Oregon (-2) over Oklahoma (-3)

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina (-2) over S. Carolina (-9)

Music City Bowl: Tennessee (5) over Purdue (1)

Peach Bowl: Pitt (0) over Michigan State (-3)

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State (-1) over Wisconsin (-2)

Taxslayer Bowl: Texas A&M (1), Wake Forest (0)

Sun Bowl: TIE Pick Washington State (-4) over Miami (-4)

Arizona Bowl: Boise State (0) over Central Michigan (-10)

Cotton Bowl: Alabama (9) over Cincinnati (8)

Orange Bowl: Georgia (15) over Michigan (9)

Outback Bowl: Penn State (2) over Arkansas (1)

Citrus Bowl: Kentucky (-4) over Iowa (-6)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (4) over Notre Dame (2)

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (9) over Utah (1)

Sugar Bowl: Baylor (3) over Mississippi (1)

Texas Bowl: LSU (-1) over Kansas State (-2)

So there you have it, all 42 winners. This system has had success. In the first four years I tried it in my confidence pool of about 25 guys, I finished first, second, first and second. The last two years, I finished eighth and ninth, so lost some luster, but I like using it personally because I feel like I’m not just flying blind. There is some substance behind this system even if it’s not foolproof.

Good luck and have fun!

Shad Powers is a columnist for The Desert Sun. Reach him at shad.powers@desertsun.com.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: College football bowl games: Columnist uses special system to pick all 42 tilts

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