The NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers (3-1) will go on the road to play the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Packers have won three straight games, including last Sunday’s victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Bengals are unbeaten at home, with an overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings and a come-from-behind win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday night.
The Packers and Bengals haven’t played since 2017. The two have split the last two games in the series, with a Packers win at Lambeau Field in 2017 and a Bengals win in Cincinnati in 2013.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for the showdown of division leaders in Cincinnati on Sunday:
Rookie vs. Rookie
(AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)
Eric Stokes, the Packers’ 2021 first-round pick from Georgia, engaged in a few collegiate battles with Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals’ 2021 first-round pick from LSU. The two former SEC stars will likely see plenty of each other on Sunday, especially with Jaire Alexander unexpected to play. Chase looks special. He has four touchdown catches in his first four games, and he’s tied for the NFL lead with three catches of at least 40 yards. His chemistry with quarterback Joe Burrow is paying off early in 2021. Can Stokes, who has been targeted 25 times already this season, keep Burrow and Chase from taking over the game? Limiting explosive plays will be huge for the Packers defense on Sunday.
Another test for the OL
(AP Photo/Justin Berl)
The Packers might get back Elgton Jenkins, but another big test awaits the offensive line. The Bengals are four-deep in quality interior defenders, and edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have combined for 30 total pressures in four games, per Pro Football Focus. Hendrickson is the star. He is eighth in ESPN’s pass-rush rate win rate, proving his ability to take over a game. The Bengals rush Hendrickson almost exclusively over the left tackle, so the blindside protector – whether it is Jenkins or Yosh Nijman – must play well. Hubbard is the NFL’s top edge rusher in run-stop win rate. On the inside, D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill can be disruptive. This is a good defensive front.
Pressuring Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9).
The Packers must consistently disrupt Joe Burrow in the pocket or it could be a long day on defense. When kept clean this season, Burrow has a passer rating of 124.5 while completing 77 percent of his passes and averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. The numbers drop to 70.0, 57 percent and 6.8 yards when under pressure. The Packers need Rashan Gary and Preston Smith to win matchups on the edge and Kenny Clark and Kingsley Keke to create havoc inside. The Bengals are in the mid-tier of teams in pass-block win rate and don’t have an elite pass-blocking offensive line, so there should be opportunities to get to Burrow and create negative plays on Sunday.
Playing slots
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83).
Ja’Marr Chase isn’t the only Bengals receiver to watch on Sunday. Tyler Boyd is another. He’s the Bengals primary slot receiver, which means he’ll likely get a matchup against either Chandon Sullivan or Kevin King on most passing plays on Sunday. Boyd is a good player. He’s lining up in the slot on over 90 percent of passing snaps and averaging almost 2.5 yards per route run (a very good number), per Pro Football Focus. The Bengals are getting him the ball in easy ways, and he’s creating after the catch. Eric Stokes might have his hands full with Chase on the perimeter, but the Packers also need better play from Sullivan and King on the inside on Sunday.
Special teams test
Green Bay Packers special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton.
The Bengals are off to a great start on special teams in 2021. Cincinnati ranks second in special teams grade at Pro Football Focus and fourth in special teams DVOA at Football Outsiders. Kicker Evan McPherson has made two game-winning field goals, the punting group led by Kevin Huber is strong and the Bengals cover both punts and kicks well. This week would be a good time for the Packers to make a statement on special teams. Matching the Bengals in the third phase – and eliminating any kind of game-changing mistake – would be a big boost.
Prediction: Packers 28, Bengals 27 (2-2)
This game gives me weird vibes. The Packers are coming off games against two really physical opponents (49ers, Steelers), while the Bengals are at home and got extra rest after playing last Thursday night. This game is also a noon kickoff, which can sometimes affect energy levels for a team used to playing in the later afternoon or primetime. The Packers are also banged up at cornerback, creating a great matchup for Joe Burrow and a great group of Bengals receivers. And I think the Cincinnati defense is better than it’s given credit for, especially up front. I still like the Packers to win a close game, but sometimes these uncommon opponents create weird outcomes. The crowd in Cincinnati is going to be jacked up for this game. The Packers better come ready to play.
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