Rejoice Ohio State football fans. All the speculation and hand-wringing can finally end because the Buckeyes actually had a game that felt pretty normal after one of the oddest and most challenging seasons in the history of the sport in 2020.
It wasn’t always pretty, but OSU found itself in the second half against a veteran and game Minnesota team to win a contest that may not ever be fully appreciated by the national media.
One of the things we like to follow throughout the season is how the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor sees every Ohio State game going. We check-in during the season, and now that we’ve had a full week of games, there are sure to be some changes with the win probabilities for each of OSU’s remaining games.
So, time to examine what ESPN predicts when it comes to the chances of winning each of its final games in 2021 and the change from before any games took place.
Sept. 11 vs. Oregon
Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, center, jokes with teammates during the Oregon Spring Football game at Autzen Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.8% (up from 85.5%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0
Projected running record: 2-0
Sept. 18 vs. Tulsa
Dec 31, 2020; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Tulsa Golden Hurricane cornerback Akayleb Evans (26) celebrates a sack of Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (2) during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7% (up from 96.0%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 1-0
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 18 vs. Akron
Akron Zips head coach Tom Arth looks to the scoreboard during the first half of an NCAA football game at InfoCision Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Akron, Ohio. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal]
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.8% (up from 99.7%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-1
Projected running record: 4-0
Oct. 2 at Rutgers
Greg Schiano after Isaiah Pacheco of Rutgers scored a fourth-quarter TD as Rutgers crushed Temple 61-14 in their season opener at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on September 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.9% (down from 93.7%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Oct. 9 vs. Maryland
Sep 4, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins running back Tayon Fleet-Davis (8) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 94.7% (down from 95.3%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 6-0
Projected running record: 6-0
Oct. 23 at Indiana
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Tyler Friday (54) pressures Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.7% (up from 82.7%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 76-12-5
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 30 vs. Penn State
Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Pete Werner (20) watches as the ball falls to the ground after helping break up a pass intended for Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Pat Freiermuth (87) during the second quarter of an NCAA Division I college football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday, November 23, 2019, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch]
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 81.1% (down from 83.6%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 6 at Nebraska
Oct 24, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Scott Frost has words with Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Sevyn Banks (7)runs during the third quarter at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.7% (down from 88.6%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 13 vs. Purdue
October 20, 2012; Columbus, OH, USA; Purdue Boilermakers running back Akeem Shavers (24) is tackled by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Christian Bryant (2) defensive lineman John Simon (54) and linebacker Ryan Shazier (10) at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 29-22 in overtime. Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 94.5% (no change) All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State
Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; The Michigan State Spartans celebrate their win over the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The Michigan State Spartans won 38-21. Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 86.8% (down from 91.6%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 27 at Michigan
Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara (12) looks on before making a pass against Western Michigan during the first half Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 74.2% (down from 81.5%) All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6
Projected running record: 12-0
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