To hear the 49ers tell it, Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury history is the reason they made such a mighty swing to move up to No. 3 in this year’s draft where they selected North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. The veteran QB’s 23 games missed over the last three seasons has catalyzed a pair of abysmal finishes with a Super Bowl run sandwiched in between. While the injuries certainly played a role in the 49ers’ leap up the draft board, Garoppolo’s absence from an NFL Wire list of the top 15 quarterbacks in the league underscores a much bigger reason the team dealt a trio of first-round picks to jump from No. 12 to No. 3.
There are a slew of quarterbacks in the NFL teams “can” win with. That’s the phrasing Kyle Shanahan used before the draft when discussing why Kirk Cousins isn’t his archetype quarterback. Garoppolo falls into that category somewhere behind Derek Carr, who ranked No. 15 on the NFL Wire list.
A quarterback that “can” win requires some assistance. Some of them need elite offensive playmakers around them. Others may need a top-end defense to keep games relatively low scoring while the signal caller manages the offense.
Putting injuries aside, for all of Garoppolo’s success in 2019, it was clear the 49ers’ offense had a ceiling with him under center. That ceiling wasn’t going to be high enough to consistently overcome possible defensive mistakes or injuries elsewhere on offense. At some point a quarterback has to be able to take over a game, especially in the postseason, and that wasn’t something Garoppolo regularly showed an ability to do.
There were several games down the stretch in 2019 where he made big plays in key spots, but too many times the 49ers’ passing attack bogged down. The lack of a downfield passing attack would eventually catch up to them, and even if Garoppolo was staying healthy, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers were going to give him another long-term contract worth top-of-market money.
So they found themselves in a position in 2021 where they had the 12th pick and an opportunity to climb the board for a star. A quarterback who would account for some extra wins instead of being an accessory to them.
Had they not taken an opportunity this year and Garoppolo stayed healthy, chances are they weren’t going to be picking as high as No. 12 again in the next two drafts. There was also a strong chance they weren’t going to go back to a Super Bowl in that span, leaving them in dreaded NFL purgatory between too bad to win and too good to get a high draft pick.
Garoppolo fell outside the top 15 in the NFL Wire QB rankings, and it’s hard to blame author Mark Schofield for leaving him out. Outside of not being able to stay on the field, his shortcomings as a passer led the 49ers to take a massive swing to replace him. Had he had played well enough to earn consideration as one of the 15 best quarterbacks in the league, perhaps San Francisco would’ve been happy paying him a second time.
They decided to move on though, in part because of injuries, but also because of performance. Having an elite quarterback is essentially a requirement for regular Super Bowl contention in the modern NFL, and the 49ers made their move to get one.