Schrock’s Week 17 picks: Lance delivers blowout win vs. Texans originally appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea
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Week 16 was an ugly one for the syndicate.
The Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Tom Brady, and Indianapolis Colts took care of business. Everyone else? Not so much. It seemed like every team with a massive COVID disadvantage overcame it, and the bets suffered.
No matter. We’re back on the horse in Week 17 with some old reliables who rarely let us down. (Please, Chargers, stop the run.)
Let’s start 2022 off right:
RECORD: 128-111 ATS (142-97-1 SU)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Chiefs -4.5
Pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Line: Bucs -13
The Jets’ defense is horrific and is dealing with some COVID issues. Tom Brady should do whatever he wants to one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Won’t be close.
Pick: Bucs 34, Jets 16
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3.5
Miami has played a bunch of backups and rookies during its seven-game winning streak. Getting A.J. Brown back last week steadied the Titans, who are in a position to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Dolphins’ run ends in Nashville.
Pick: Titans 23, Dolphins 17
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -14.5
The books are aware that the Falcons are dog water. But 14.5 is just a little too big for me to ride with Buffalo off a monumental win. Falcons cover by the skin of their teeth.
Pick: Bills 31, Falcons 17
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
I guess this line assumes Carson Wentz claims he is feeling fine and, therefore, can come off the COVID list and play Sunday. If not, iconic Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger will make his first career start. Either way, Jonathan Taylor will be in the backfield, and that’s bad news for the Silver and Black. Raiders’ playoff dreams end here, but Derek Carr gets us a cover.
Pick: Colts 24, Raiders 20
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -16.5
The Jaguars are ravaged by COVID, and the Patriots are coming off back-to-back losses to playoff opponents. This is a get-right spot for a pissed-off Patriots team that should be in bum slayer mode. It’s a huge number, but man, the Jags stink.
Pick: Patriots 30, Jags 10
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -6
Outside of the Jags, the Giants are the worst team in the NFL. It doesn’t matter if Joe Judge trots out Mike Glennon, Jake Fromm, or Eli Manning, the Bears should win this game. Chicago’s defense is the best unit on the field, and that’s good enough.
Pick: Bears 20, Giants 10
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Line: Rams -4.5
Lamar Jackson likely will miss another game, but Tyler Huntley will be back from the COVID list. That’s a plus, but Baltimore’s secondary remains one of the worst in the NFL. Joe Burrow threw for over 500 yards last week, and I expect Matthew Stafford to put up similar numbers.
Pick: Rams 34, Ravens 24
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Line: Eagles -4.5
It took the Eagles a half to get going against a trash Giants operation, but they eventually kicked it into gear and dusted the two-headed monster of Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon. Washington is fresh off an “update your resume” butt-whooping at the hands of the Cowboys. The Football Team is cooked, and the Birds are eyeing the playoffs. Easy pick.
Pick: Eagles 27, WFT 20
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
The Chargers’ defense remains terrible. Denver should run on it if Vic Fangio remembers he has Javonte Williams in the backfield. However, I just can’t bet on Drew Lock against Justin Herbert. The Bolts need this one and take it.
Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 27
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -6
This line seems like a bit of an overreaction to the Cowboys canceling the WFT in a primetime slaying. Arizona has been bad over the last two weeks, but Dallas hasn’t exactly been beating the NFL’s best. Give me Coach Cool in an upset, but I don’t love it.
Pick: Cardinals 30, Cowboys 28
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -6.5
New Orleans has had some COVID issues, but this one is easy. The Panthers’ offensive line stinks, and the Saints’ defensive line is dominant. No contest.
Pick: Saints 20, Panthers 10
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7.5
Russell Wilson isn’t right and probably won’t be until 2022. The Lions continue to play hard for Coach Kneecaps. Seahawks win, but it’s tight.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Lions 23
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
Kirk Cousins has come down with COVID, which means rookie Kellen Mond is in line to make his first NFL start. The Packers are rolling and are about to clinch the No. 1 seed. Don’t even turn on this one.
Pick: Packers 30, Vikings 13
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Browns -3.5
Baker Mayfield has been a massive detriment to the Browns’ playoff hopes this season. It’s admirable that he is playing through like four injuries, but at this point, he is just hurting his team. This might be Big Ben’s last game at the Big Ketchup Bottle, but I don’t think he walks off a winner.
Pick: Browns 23, Steelers 17
Houston Texans at 49ers
Line: 49ers -12.5
Jimmy Garoppolo? Trey Lance? Does it matter? The Texans were impressive in beating the Chargers, but the 49ers’ defense should handle young Davis Mills. San Francisco inches closer to a playoff berth.
Pick:49ers 31, Texans 13