Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday with the New England Patriots visiting the Falcons in Atlanta. The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups.
Farmer’s record last week: 8-5-1 (.615); season 93-56-1 (.624). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 72-76-2 (.487).
Teams on bye: Rams, Broncos.
Times Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):
Patriots (6-4) at Falcons (4-5)
Thursday, 5:20 p.m.
TV: Channel 11, NFL Network, Amazon.
Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 471/2.
Veteran coach with rookie quarterback versus rookie coach with veteran quarterback? In this case, go with coach Bill Belichick over Arthur Smith, especially on a short week. Old guys rule.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Falcons 20
Colts (5-5) at Bills (6-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 705.
Line: Bills by 7. O/U: 50.
The Bills are suddenly hearing New England’s footsteps. Josh Allen faces a secondary missing three of its four starters, and the Colts can’t seem to win a game against a playoff-caliber team.
Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 20
Ravens (6-3) at Bears (3-6)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 706.
Line: Ravens by 5. O/U: 45.
The Ravens are the better team, but have had their share of bad games this season. They are 3-6 against the spread, so even though they probably will beat the Bears, there’s a good chance it won’t be by much.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bears 21
Dolphins (3-7) at Jets (2-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 707.
Line: Dolphins by 31/2. O/U: 441/2.
The Dolphins’ defense is starting to resemble 2020 version, which finished sixth. Jets are starting Joe Flacco, who might be better against blitzes than rookie Zach Wilson, but does he have anything left?
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Jets 13
Texans (1-8) at Titans (8-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 708.
Line: Titans by 10. O/U: 441/2.
The Titans don’t have Derrick Henry, but that hasn’t seemed to matter much. Tennessee still has weapons and appears to be playoff bound, and is facing a Houston franchise in deep disarray.
Prediction: Titans 28, Texans 13
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 709.
Line: Panthers by 31/2. O/U: 43.
Who knows how long it will last, but there is love in the air again between Carolina and Cam Newton. Christian McCaffrey is back to speed against a disappointing and banged-up Washington defense.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Washington 20
Lions (0-8-1) at Browns (5-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 710.
Line: Browns by 111/2. O/U: 431/2.
Lions are basking in afterglow of their tie with Pittsburgh — hey, it’s been that kind of season — and they have played some good teams close before losing. Cleveland tends not to blow out opponents.
Prediction: Browns 24, Lions 20
49ers (4-5) at Jaguars (2-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 711.
Line: 49ers by 6. O/U: 45.
The 49ers have been up and down, with a humiliating loss to the short-handed Cardinals followed by a decisive win over the Rams. Jacksonville isn’t playing in London, so no home-field advantage here.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Jaguars 17
Packers (8-2) at Vikings (4-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.
Line: Packers by 21/2. O/U: 49.
Controversial as he is, Aaron Rodgers is on mend and figures to play better this week. Green Bay’s defense did a good job in consecutive weeks against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson.
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24
Saints (5-4) at Eagles (4-6)
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 713.
Line: Eagles by 11/2. O/U: 43.
Saints haven’t lost three in a row since 2016, and they have the best run defense in the NFL. That said, the Eagles ran all over them last season. Dropped passes, dumb penalties have killed New Orleans.
Prediction: Saints 23, Eagles 21
Bengals (5-4) at Raiders (5-4)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.
Line: Bengals by 1. O/U: 491/2.
The Bengals are terrible after a week off, losing their last five after the break. But this is a different team with a different quarterback, and the Raiders are in disarray. Give the edge to Joe Burrow.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Raiders 21
Cowboys (7-2) at Chiefs (6-4)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.
Line: Chiefs by 21/2. O/U: 551/2.
Is the resurgence of the Chiefs real or a mirage? The Cowboys can score like crazy, and they just throttled Atlanta, 43-3. Dak Prescott has a big game against a Kansas City defense he can pick apart.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28
Cardinals (8-2) at Seahawks (3-6)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 716.
Line: Cardinals by 21/2. O/U: 48.
After being shut out last Sunday for the first time in Russell Wilson’s 150 games, the Seahawks are likely to bounce back strong at home. Arizona is trying to hold it together until Kyler Murray returns.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 21
Steelers (5-3-1) at Chargers (5-4)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m.
TV: Channel 4.
Line: Chargers by 51/2. O/U: 47.
Mike Tomlin has a good record against young quarterbacks, and the Chargers have struggled to stop the run. But with no Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger’s status in question …
Prediction: Chargers 27, Steelers 23
Giants (3-6) at Buccaneers (6-3)
Monday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: ESPN.
Line: Buccaneers by 101/2. O/U: 491/2.
Tom Brady is going to bring the Buccaneers back with a vengeance after a humbling defeat. There’s no way he’s going to drop two in a row — and certainly not to the Giants.
Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Giants 17
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.