-
NFL football is back for another week of action.
-
Through 10 weeks, our picks are 78-71-1 against the spread.
-
This week we’re backing the Eagles, Chargers, and more to cover the number.
Football is back for another week of action.
Last week, our picks against the spread went a solid 8-6 to extend our season-long record a little further above .500.
This week, we’re back with another full slate of games and looking to make a buck or two. Take a look below at our best bets against the spread for Week 11 of the NFL season (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 8-6
OVERALL: 78-71-1
Atlanta Falcons* (+6.5) over New England Patriots
Last week we saw the absolute worst out of the Falcons as they got demolished by the Cowboys. We also saw the absolute best out of the Patriots, who handed a shellacking to the Browns. It feels like both teams return to the mean a bit playing on a short week.
Chicago Bears* (+5) over Baltimore Ravens
This game is probably a stay-away for me as both teams are tough to read. Baltimore should be one of the top teams in the AFC, but they just got pantsed by Miami last Thursday. The Bears have lost four straight but are coming off of a bye week, and Justin Fields is only going to continue to get more comfortable. Since I have to choose a side, I’ll take the home dog.
Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Buffalo Bills*
It feels like the AFC is still wide open, and the Colts are friskier than we might have initially thought after their 0-3 start to the season. Since then, Indy has only dropped games to the Titans (who are beating everyone) and the Ravens (who have Lamar Jackson). It feels like they have a shot to at least keep things close against Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers (-1) over Minnesota Vikings*
Aaron Rodgers didn’t look great in his first game back from COVID-19, but he’s a player I trust to show up for divisional games. Green Bay has won three of their past four games against Minnesota.
Tennessee Titans* (-10) over Houston Texans
This is a big number, but it’s tough to bet against the Titans right now, especially against one of the worst teams in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars* (+6.5) over San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are due for a let-down after their huge performance against the Rams in primetime last weekend. Believe it or not, the Jaguars have looked a bit better the past few weeks.
Cleveland Browns* (-11) over Detroit Lions
Baker Mayfield appears to be playing hurt, so it’s tough to take the Browns laying such a big number. But with the Lions potentially starting Tim Boyle at quarterback, you either take Cleveland or run away from this game entirely.
Carolina Panthers* (-3) over Washington Football Team
Washington is another team set up for a letdown after their monumental win over the Buccaneers at home last week. Meanwhile, Cam Newton is set to have his first start back in Carolina. Based solely on vibes, Panthers should roll.
Philadelphia Eagles* (-2) over New Orleans Saints
In all honesty, I think the Saints are probably the smarter side here. But I am a Philly fan, and this game is a real potential make-or-break game. Win, and the path to the playoffs suddenly opens. Lose, and that door slams shut pretty quickly. Go birds.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) over New York Jets*
Please don’t bet on this game. Your money is better spent literally anywhere else. But if I have to pick a side, I will pick against Joe Flacco.
Las Vegas Raiders* (+1) over Cincinnati Bengals
I loved the Bengals at the start of the season, but given how bunched up the AFC is right now, I worry they’re heading towards a tailspin. That said, the same could be true of the Raiders, who have now lost two straight and are at risk of losing control of their season. Rather than play a side in this one, my advice is to bet the over and root for points.
Kansas City Chiefs* (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Both of these teams are riding high after dominant wins last weekend, but we’ll back the Chiefs in this spot because their win came on the road. If Kansas City found their spark against the Raiders, they’ll want to put on a show at home for fans that haven’t seen them score more than 20 points at Arrowhead since Week 3.
Seattle Seahawks* (+2) over Arizona Cardinals
Russell Wilson didn’t look fully healthy in his first game back from his finger injury. Hopefully, with another week of rehabbing under his belt, he’ll be more ready to go on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray also hasn’t played in two weeks, so there’s no telling what he will look like when he gets back out on the field. With so many unknowns, this is another good game to play carefully or even skip entirely. There are better bets on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers* (-5.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
While there’s some concern about the Chargers rushing defense against Najee Harris, I will not be betting on Mason Rudolph on the road. End of analysis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (-11) over New York Giants
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have now lost two straight games in embarrassing fashion, with a bye week in between. Playing in primetime, it feels like Tampa Bay has to come out with a statement game if they’re to stay on track for a potential title defense.
Read the original article on Insider