There are probably a dozen, maybe two dozen, teams in the NFL that you know are probably much better or worse than their record.
The San Francisco 49ers stand out in that category.
The 49ers are 3-3. They’re also fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and second, by a wide margin over No. 3, in net yards per play. If you want to just look at the standings, proclaim them mediocre at .500 and drop the mic, that’s your prerogative. But you’re likely not a bettor. The 49ers are a very good team with a .500 record. It happens.
Here’s the problem for the 49ers: They’re a quality team that might be 3-4 by Sunday night. They face the Kansas City Chiefs and the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM. The NFL is especially unpredictable this season, but the Chiefs are one of three teams we can generally trust from week to week.
The problem for the 49ers last week was twofold (and explained in last week’s picks): They were in a bad travel spot with back-to-back East Coast games, and they also had a lot of injuries. The Atlanta Falcons‘ 28-14 win was surprising but also explainable. It didn’t mean the 49ers are a bad team. In fact, the 49ers outgained Atlanta 346-289. It wasn’t that bad, even with a ton of injuries.
The 49ers are hopeful to get healthier, and maybe it’s the Chiefs in a tough spot this week. They’re coming off their biggest game of the regular season, a home loss to the Buffalo Bills. They’re going from home underdog to road favorite. They’re also facing a 49ers team that knows it doesn’t want to be at 3-4 after seven weeks.
I’ll take the 49ers and the three points. I believe that the 49ers are the class of the NFC West and perhaps the third-best team in the NFC. Their record just doesn’t reflect their true level. That can be said about a lot of NFL teams through six weeks.
Here are the picks against the spread for Week 7, with the lines from BetMGM:
Cardinals (-2.5) over Saints
There’s more in Thursday’s Daily Sweat, but I’m banking on the Cardinals being the more urgent team against the beat-up Saints. If Arizona loses here, we can forget about them this season.
Falcons (+6.5) over Bengals
Can the Falcons’ streak keep going? They’re the only team left that is undefeated against the spread this season. The Bengals have been OK, certainly not great. Hey, let’s not mess with a winning streak. Falcons it is.
Cowboys (-7) over Lions
I do worry about the Lions’ backdoor cover chances here, but then again, this Cowboys defense is pretty nasty. Dallas will be fired up for Dak Prescott‘s return. We’re about to see Dallas enter that Bills/Eagles/Chiefs tier of the unquestioned top teams in the NFL (though, plenty of us know they’re already there).
Colts (+2.5) over Titans
It’s hard to let go sometimes. I liked the Colts before the season to win the AFC South, and while it’s a little too much to call this the AFC South championship game, my guess is whoever wins it will see their odds get a massive spike. Have I spent the past week talking myself into Matt Ryan being suddenly rejuvenated, after that win over the Jaguars last week? Maybe.
Commanders (+4.5) over Packers
This is where we’re at with the Packers. I think the Commanders are probably one of the five worst teams in the NFL, have to turn to Taylor Heinicke as their starting QB this week and I still can’t pick the Packers to cover. If Green Bay doesn’t look a little better this week, it might just not happen this season.
I don’t like taking double-digit favorites and really don’t like what we’ve seen from the Buccaneers lately, but I can’t sit through another afternoon of backing the Panthers and watching P.J. Walker throw passes behind the line of scrimmage.
Giants (+3) over Jaguars
Giants fans who saw this line must be flipping out. Keep in mind, the Jaguars don’t really have a home-field advantage, or much of one anyway. Oddsmakers are practically saying the 2-4 Jaguars are better than the 5-1 Giants. I’ll take the field goal with the Giants, who aren’t as good as their record but deserve more respect than this.
Ravens (-6.5) over Browns
The question is whether the Ravens can actually hold onto the lead once they have it. My guess is they’ve heard enough about their three blown double-digit leads that there won’t be any letting up.
When books put up spreads for all the games in the offseason, the Broncos were -7.5 for this one. Not only has that changed 6.5 points, I can’t take the Broncos at the discount. Part of that is the Broncos’ ineptitude this season, but it’s also a nod to the Jets, who are improving each week.
Texans (+7) over Raiders
I’ll keep riding the Texans as my “they aren’t good but they’ll cover a lot of spreads” team this season. Also, the Raiders might be that team that plays nothing but close games all season.
I’d say I’m ready to apologize to Pete Carroll but what’s the point? Every year I look at what Seattle is doing, can’t believe it’ll work and they end up being pretty good. I’ll be wrong about the Seahawks every season Carroll is there. Carroll is doing it again and — I never thought I’d be saying this two months ago — there’s really not that big of a difference between the Seahawks and Chargers through six weeks.
Dolphins (-7) over Steelers
It’s really strange to see some people talking themselves back into Mitch Trubisky after one good half of football last week. Not buying it. I do believe that the Dolphins, who have played hard and well the past three weeks considering the circumstances, are very excited to have Tua Tagovailoa back and will look like a playoff team again.
I like that the Bears have opened things up a bit on offense. I’m still not over losing on them last week, when they had endless opportunities to beat the Commanders. I’m not too excited to go back on them this week, but I’m not to the point with the Patriots in which I trust them laying more than a touchdown.
Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 49-44-1